Jayavarman 130 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Discuss coverage and make your predictions! Results will be posted as they come. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 My predictions for Iowa: Dems- Obama Edwards Clinton Biden or Richardson? GOP- Huckabee Romney McCain Paul, Thompson, or Guiliani? ------ Follow-Up to New Hampshire and points: If Thompson does not place a strong third, he will drop out and endorse McCain. If Romney gets beaten and McCain places a strong third, McCain will easily beat Romney in New Hampshire if not closely. With a strong win in Iowa, Huckabee will place a strong third in NH, even being competitive for second. Spoiler: Ron Paul may pull an upset third or fourth in New Hampshire, even in Iowa. Media hates him, so it will be funny. Hard to extrapolate beyond NH, but my ultimate prediction is a McCain-Huckabee fight for the nomination. Guiliani will fizzle while trying his month-long wait for delegates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
floorman81 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 My predictions: Rep: Romney Huckabee Thompson McCain Paul Dems: Obama Edwards Clinton Biden Dems will have nearly twice the turnout as Republicans. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lewers 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Democrats Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Biden Dodd Republicans Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul Guliani Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HabsFan21 4 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Democratic ---- Edwards Obama Clinton Biden Republican ---- Romney Huckabee McCain Paul Thompson (Drops out afterwards) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Richardson has endorsed Obama. Since Richardson is the top second-tier candidate, this will very likely put Obama over the top. Obama had earlier been endorsed by Kucinich. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01...d-choice-votes/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Those second choice endorsements are irrelevant. People are not sheep. If you read the progressive blogosphere, Kucinich supporters were pissed that Dennis told them to vote for Obama. MY PREDICTIONS: Democrats: Edwards Obama Clinton Biden Richardson Dodd Kucinich Gravel Republicans: Romney Huckabee McCain Thompson Paul Giuliani Hunter Keyes That Illinois Businessman Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HabsFan21 4 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Those second choice endorsements are irrelevant. People are not sheep. If you read the progressive blogosphere, Kucinich supporters were pissed that Dennis told them to vote for Obama. Like in leadership conventions here, the smaller the group, the more powerful the endorsement, because they're the most loyal to the leader, rather than media horseraces. I'd say the blogosphere is more irrelevant than that...just people who want to get angry over every little thing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KHorberg 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Report Share Posted January 3, 2008 Also the campaigns keep denying any formal arrangements. I get the feeling it's last minute dirty tricks, Obama trying to psych out Clinton. My predictions- Edwards Obama Clinton Biden Richardson Dodd Kucinich Gravel Huckabee Romney Paul McCain Thompson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MRomney08 0 Posted January 4, 2008 Report Share Posted January 4, 2008 Iowa Predictions: Democrats: Obama Clinton Edwards Biden Richardson GOP: Romney Huckabee F. Thompson Paul McCain Giuliani Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2008 I am actually paying attention to third for the Republicans right now as the results comes in: a Thompson-McCain-Paul fight! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2008 Looks like my predictions are standing firm, though McCain and Thompson are fighting for third by a hair. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 4, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2008 On to New Hampshire. New Hampshire hard to predict. I would like to wait for at least some initial post-Iowa reports out of New Hampshire, but here are my predictions: Democrats ---- Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Republicans ---- McCain Huckabee Romney Paul Guiliani Thompson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Yoyo 2 Posted January 4, 2008 Report Share Posted January 4, 2008 For New Hampshire: Democrats: Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Republicans: McCain Romney Huckabee Paul Guiliani Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 862 Posted January 5, 2008 Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 New Hampshire: Democrats Clinton Obama (nearly tied for first, becomes the official "anti-hillary") Edwards (Distant third...loses momentum, drops out within a week or so) Richardson (sticks around until Nevada, at least) Kucinich (If he doesn't drop out "before" the primaries, he'll certainly drop out afterwards) Republicans: McCain Romney (Sticks around past Feb 5th...he has the money, why not?) Guiliani (Shocks with a third place appearance, boosts his viability considerably) Huckabee (Stays around at least till South Carolina) Thompson (Should drop out...but will probably see South Carolina) Paul (Sticks around to Feb 5th. Has the money...inexplicably.) Other random predictions: Unless Hillary is 70% sure she will win almost all of Feb 5th...she'll drop out a day or two before. Better to look like she's backing Obama than look like Obama kicked her ass. Huckabee's evangelical support will not be enough...nomination comes down to Romney, McCain, or Guiliani. Facing Obama in the main event, Republicans will eventually unite behind Guliani. Obama chooses a VP with experience...maybe Biden. Guiliani almost HAS to pick Huckabee...maybe Brownback, but Huckabee makes the most sense. Obama gets the majority of the independent vote due to his charisma and lack of ties to the Iraq war, becoming the first black President. (Fun alternate universe consideration: Clinton gets the nomination. Snubs Obama...maybe picks Richardson as VP. Most viable Republican against Clinton is McCain...who takes Obama as his Vice President pick, knowing he won't lose any conservatives no matter who he picks, since they won't vote for Clinton. Obama adds a ton of charisma, likeability, hope, and independent votes to McCain, who wins the nomination. McCain dies in office of natural causes, Obama becomes first black President.) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jrtucke 0 Posted January 5, 2008 Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 GOP Romney Mccain Huckabee Paul Giuliani Thompson DEM Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MRomney08 0 Posted January 5, 2008 Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 Wyoming goes to Romney. New Hampshire picks: Romney (gotta stick with him, but this is a must-win) McCain Paul (shock of the primaries thusfar) Huckabee Giuliani F. Thompson (drops out) Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Kucinich South Carolina picks: McCain (with Thompson endorsement) Huckabee Romney Giuliani Paul Obama Edwards Clinton (losing steam...) Nevada goes to McCain, Michigan to Romney. Can't make the calls for "Tsunami Tuesday" yet. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 Huckabee's evangelical support will not be enough...nomination comes down to Romney, McCain, or Guiliani. And what support do the other candidates have "enough" of? Do not underestimate Huckabee in New Hampshire and beyond like everybody did for Iowa. The young and charismatic Huckabee taps into deep populist sentiment and can harness the same energy that Obama is riding. Huckabee has spent little money and time in New Hampshire, if any up till now. With his Iowa momentum, positive media attention, likely strong performance in the debates this weekend, and being outside the Romney-McCain mudslinging, Huckabee will attract more New Hampshire voters than the "experts" will expect. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 862 Posted January 5, 2008 Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 And what support do the other candidates have "enough" of? Do not underestimate Huckabee in New Hampshire and beyond like everybody did for Iowa. The young and charismatic Huckabee taps into deep populist sentiment and can harness the same energy that Obama is riding.Huckabee has spent little money and time in New Hampshire, if any up till now. With his Iowa momentum, positive media attention, likely strong performance in the debates this weekend, and being outside the Romney-McCain mudslinging, Huckabee will attract more New Hampshire voters than the "experts" will expect. You're right...Huckabee taps into the deep populist sentiment that Obama is riding...but that's just it. There's only so much of that to go around, and Obama's going to take the majority. I watched the Iowa caucuses live, flipping between every channel...and everyone (even Fox) was going on and on about Obama and barely mentioning Huckabee. Obama and Huckabee both excite people...but Obama is the more exciting of the two, if you're not a self-described evangelical. And, again, there's only so many of THOSE to go around. And they're likely to vote for whoever is the Republican candidate anyhow. So those who are just looking for excitement are going to go for Obama. This kills any support Huckabee has outside the church. Romney should be the obvious choice in Huckabee's wake...but he's been going negative for so long that his unfavorables have to b higher than Clinton's by now. In my mind, Thompson and Paul will never get another supporter that they don't already have...which leaves Guiliani or McCain. It could be McCain of course, but I think the republican party will see Obama will destroy him in debates...McCain has the experience, it's true, but he's so bad in debates that most won't see that. Guilani can hold his own in a debate, which is why I think he'll the eventual nominee (although Obama will destroy him too.) As I said...this is all assuming Obama gets the nomination. If it turns out that it's Clinton, McCain is the clear choice for Republicans. And, for the record, I think it's a Clinton-Romney matchup that Bloomberg is waiting to jump in on. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
araymond1 0 Posted January 5, 2008 Report Share Posted January 5, 2008 NH Prediction: DEMS: Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Gravel REPUBLICANS: McCain Romney Huckabee Paul Giuliani Thompson Hunter After this, Romney will lose embarrassingly to Huckabee or McCain in Michigan and will have to drop out of the race. From there on it's unpredictable... but my guess is that Huckabee, and McCain are the most likely with a possible Giuliani comeback later on. Obama will go on to win Nevada and South Carolina, then Florida and will be then declared the assumed frontrunner as SuperDuperTuesday approaches. But I'm no expert so we'll see. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pcalder 0 Posted January 8, 2008 Report Share Posted January 8, 2008 GOP Predictions: McCain 38% Romney 31% Huckabee 12% Paul 10% Giuliani 7% Thompson 1.7% Hunter .3% Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pcalder 0 Posted January 9, 2008 Report Share Posted January 9, 2008 GOP Predictions:McCain 38% Romney 31% Huckabee 12% Paul 10% Giuliani 7% Thompson 1.7% Hunter .3% Huh. Well, I wasn't THAT far off. Final Results seem to be: McCain 37% Romney 32% Huckabee 11% Giuliani 9% Paul 8% Write-Ins 2% Thompson 1% Hunter 1% Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2008 Wow. NH totally blew all predictions out of the water. On to Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
crazyknight 0 Posted January 10, 2008 Report Share Posted January 10, 2008 Problem for Huckabee is this; the GOP cabal didn't like him before he slammed them but now he's basically said they've used the Evangelicals and delivered nothing to them and that message is ringing true with the voters, they seem to have mobilised behind McCain or Romney because, at the very least, they are pro-business and anti-tax. I see Huckabee as all downhill from here for that fact. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted January 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2008 Michigan primary today. Seems like Romney's last stand. Can Huckabee post a strong showing? Will McCain continue is momentum? Can Hillary be seriously challenged by "Uncommitted"? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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