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Hey all!

Figured I'd report a full game with TheorySpark's Dec 1 2008 scenario...and then one with Jayavarman's when it comes out...and then we (let's face it...just me) can see which if any was more accurate when the results come out.

Sound fun?



As I said, I'm playing Theoryspark's Dec 1 2008 scenario right now...untweaked, except for one major thing: I've put in all the VP candidates I could think of for both parties. Also...I took out Tancredo, Hunter, Kucinich, and Hunter because I would bet a year's pay that neither of them have any effect on the election. I did leave in Paul because I think it's "possible" that he could at least have a minor effect, though he won't win the election. And I left in Richardson and Biden, mostly due to wishful thinking.

I will only be watching the game as the libertarian...not actually doing anything but observing. And the game is on "medium"...though since I'm not actually playing, I don't know if that will effect anything.

So, let's go!

Dec 1 Nationwide:

Clinton - 30.8

Obama - 16.5

Edwards - 10.2

Richardson - 3.6

Biden - 3.5

Guiliani - 20.6

McCain - 11.8

Romney - 10.6

Huckabee - 9.8

Thompson 9.3

Paul - 2.7

Huckabee surged, while Obama was hit by a pie. Oprah came to Obama's pastry defense, Clinton and Guiliani gaffed, and Ron Paul won a debate. Thompson apparently punched Guiliani...and then shot him in the face (Thompson hits Guiliani on the trail, Thompson blasts Guliani)...while Obama and Biden debated to a draw.

End of December:

Clinton - 33.2 (Up)

Obama - 15.7 (Down)

Edwards - 10 (Down)

Richardson - 3.6 (Same)

Biden - 3.4 (Same)

Guiliani - 18 (Down)

McCain - 10.5 (Down)

Romney - 9.6 (Down)

Huckabee - 12.5 (Up)

Thompson 8.6 (Down)

Paul - 3 (Up)

Iowa poll: Huckabee & Romney tie, Obama/Edwards/Clinton three-way.

New Hampshire poll: Romney, Clinton

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Iowa Results : Biden (16), Richardson (13), Obama (8), Edwards (8). Romney (41).

Pretty much the only Democrat NOT to get a few votes in Iowa was Clinton!

Clinton and McCain both have significant scandals.

New Hampshire Results: Biden (6), Clinton (6), Edwards (6), Obama (4). Romney (12)

The only thing clear from the first two democrat votes is that no one can agree. Though Biden should be proud of two first-place wins! Meanwhile, Romney is doing strong, keeping Huckabee down so far. Speaking of, Huckabee and Romney debate to a draw.

Jan 12 Nationwide:

Clinton - 34.4 (up)

Obama - 14.9 (down)

Edwards - 9.8 (down)

Biden - 3.9 (up)

Richardson - 3.6 (same)

Guiliani - 18.2 (up)

Huckabee - 12.5 (same)

McCain - 10.3 (up)

Romney - 9.7 (down)

Thompson 8.3 (down)

Paul - 4.2 (up)

Nevada Poll: Romney, Clinton

Michigan Poll: Romney

South Carolina Poll: Romney and Huckabee tie, Clinton

Michigan Results: Fred Thompson (30)

Nevada Results: Biden (11), Edwards (7) , Clinton (6). Romney (34)

South Carolina Results, Republican: Paul (24)

Fred Thompson and Ron Paul both pull amazing upsets, while Biden continues to dumbfound analysts, taking every state so far.

South Carolina Results, Democrat: Clinton (22), Biden (16), Obama (7)

Florida Results: Romney (57)

Edwards bombs on Oprah, while Thompson knocks softballs out of the park on O'Reilley. Edwards recovers days later, winning the debate.

Standings February 2nd:

Clinton - 32.6 (down)

Obama - 12.6 (down)

Edwards - 9 (down)

Biden - 10.4 (WAY up)

Richardson - 3.6 (same)

Guiliani - 15.1 (down)

Romney - 14.4 (WAY up)

Huckabee - 10.9 (down)

McCain - 9.3 (down)

Thompson 9.2 (up)

Paul - 6.6 (up)

Electoral Votes so far:

Romney - 144

Thompson - 30

Paul - 24

Biden - 49

Clinton - 37

Edwards - 21

Obama - 19

Richardson - 13

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Super Super Duper Tuesday (Feb 5thish)

Maine, Republican Results: Paul

Alabama: Clinton (39), Biden (21). Huckabee.

Alaska: Clinton (7), Edwards (7), Biden (4) Romney.

Arizona: Clinton (28), Biden (23), Obama (16) McCain

Arkansas: Clinton (20), Obama (16), Biden (11). Huckabee.

California: Clinton (287), Biden (154). Guiliani.

Colorado: Biden (15), Edwards (11), Richardson (10), Clinton (7). Thompson.

Connecticut: Clinton (46), Biden (15). Romney.

Deleware: Clinton (15), Biden (8). Thompson.

Georgia: Clinton (66), Edwards (24), Biden (14). Romney.

Idaho: Clinton.

Illinois: Clinton (139), Obama (46). Thompson.

Massachussetts: Clinton. Romney.

Minnesotta: Clinton (66), Biden (22). Guiliani.

Missourri Clinton (66), Biden (22). Romney.

Montana: Romney

New Jersey: Clinton (95), Biden (32). Romney.

New Mexico: Clinton (39), Richardson (9)

New York: Clinton (182), Biden (98). Romney.

North Carolina: Romney

North Dakota: Clinton. Romney.

Oklahoma: Clinton (31), Biden (16). Huckabee.

Tennessee: Clinton (63), Biden (22). Romney.

Utah: Clinton (22), Biden (7). Romney.

West Virginia: Romney.

Clinton wins almost every state, though Biden manages to take second place in almost all of them. The Republicans are VERY split, though Romney pulls a minor victory.

EV Standings:

Dems: (1919 needed)

Clinton - 1410

Biden - 533

Obama - 97

Edwards - 63

Richardson - 32

Reps (1168 needed)

Romney - 770

Guiliani - 214

Thompson - 164

Huckabee - 134

McCain - 53

Paul - 45

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Louisiana : Clinton (51), Edwards (17). Thompson.

Nebraska : Clinton (14), Biden (11), Obama (6). Romney.

Washington: Clinton (51), Edwards (23), Biden (23). Paul.

Maine: Clinton (25), Biden (9)

Maryland: Clinton (74), Biden (25). Romney.

Virginia: Clinton (78), Biden (25). Paul.

DC: Clinton (28), Biden (9). Thompson.

Realizing at this point that Clinton almost certainly has the nomination, and Biden's the obvious choice for VP, Obama and Edwards withdraw from the race on February 16th. On the Republican side, McCain makes a play for VP, endorsing Romney.

Wisconsin: Clinton (78), Biden (14). Thompson.

On February 23rd, seeing Clinton just 19 electoral votes shy of the nomination, Richardson withdraws. Hawaii gives all it's votes to Clinton (29)...making Hilary Clinton the democratic nominee. Biden withdraws the next day.

Hawaii - Clinton. Thompson.

(At this point, I'll stop recording Democrat votes, since Clinton's the only democrat.

Ohio - Romney

Rhode Island - Romney

Texas - Thompson

Vermont - Paul

March EV Standings (1168 needed)

Romney - 1129

Thompson - 429

Guiliani - 288

Paul - 165

Huckabee - 124

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Missippi - Thompson.

March 15th - Guiliani concedes defeat and withdraws. Days later, Huckabee surrenders the religion card and endorses Romney. These two surrenders give Romney the final electoral votes he needs, becoming the Republican nominee.

Clinton - 39.9%

Romney - 34.7%

Fast forward to August...

Clinton is officially crowned the candidate in the Demcratic Convention. She makes a surprising move, ignoring Biden's obvious popularity...and names Barack Obama as her Vice President pick.

Romney is also crowned, choosing South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. This is viewed by many as a brilliant move, as Graham covers Romney's inexperience in military matters...Senator Graham actually served in Iraq just this past August...plus his immigration record and his image as a centrist.

Clinton/Obama - 44.8%

Romney/Graham - 42.7%

Both campagins are hit hard by major scandals in September, but Romney bounces back with regular guest appearances on O'Reilley, and wins the first Presidential Debate.

October 1

Clinton/Obama - 44.5%

Romney/Graham - 43.5%

The Vice Presidential debate is a draw, but Clinton wins the next Presidential one. Romney wins the third debate despite another major scandal, and his sons begin hitting Florida hard.

October 20th - 2 weeks to election

Romney/Graham - 44.7%, 231 EVs

Clinton/Obama - 44.4%, 201 EVs

Complaints arise that Romney is being too negative, even though it's his campaign that suffers through another round of minor scandals. Paul Begala is campaigning for Clinton.

October 27th - 1 week to election

Clinton/Obama - 44.9%, 217 EVs

Romney/Graham - 43.6%, 232 EVs

Romney hits Louisiana and Maryland, while Clinton hides from a minor scandal in Iowa.

Nov 3rd - 1 Day to Election

Clinton/Obama - 44.7%, 186 EVs

Romney/Graham - 44.4%, 245 EVs

Arizona, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Maine are all expected to be wild cards...

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7 - 7:15

Clinton starts with a small lead, though Romney quickly moves in. Indiana, Georgia, and Graham's South Carolina all lock on Romney. Kentucky leans Romney, while Vermont and Virginia lean Clinton.

Romney - 34

Clinton - 0

7:15 - 7:30

Terrible news for the Clinton campaign...Kentucky locks on Romney, while Vermont and Virginia flip and begin leaning to Romney as well! Early reports from Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina all indicate a Romney win as well. Clinton is not currently projected to win a SINGLE state.

Romney - 42

Clinton - 0

7:30 - 7:45

Brief relief with Ohio, West Virginia, and Georgia all briefly flipping to Clinton...but then they flip back. North Carolina locks...still no states leaning Clinton.

Romney - 57

Clinton - 0

7:45 - 8

West Virginia continues to flop, but is currently on Romney. More states report...Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, Maryland, Florida, Alabama, and Missippi all lean Romney. But Clinton finally gets good news: Tennessee, Massachussettes, Connecticut, New Jersey, Deleware, and DC are all leaning Democrat.

Romney - 57

Clinton - 0

8 - 8:30

Finally, cause for true celebration in the Clinton/Obama camp. Senator Clinton finally leads in locked states, taking Connecticut, Deleware, Massachussettes, New Jersey, DC, Illinois, and Florida. Alabama, Oklahoma, and Missouri lock on Romney. But Romney still leads in leaning states.

Clinton - 88

Romney - 84

8:30 - 9

Romney reclaims the official lead when Arkansas locks on him. The mid-west begins reporting, indicating a strong Romney lead (though not enough to cinch the win).

Romney - 90

Clinton - 88

9 - 9:30

New York and Rhode Island lock on Clinton...but Romney locks Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, New Mexico, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, and New Hampshire. The official vote is still fairly close...but if Romney actually locks every reporting state currently leaning towards him, he will have 271 votes, enough for the win.

Romney - 156

Clinton - 123

9:30 - 10

Kansas locks on Romney...but almost the entire unlocked Great Lakes region has a change of heart and begins leaning Clinton...making the potential votes MUCH closer.

Romney - 162

Clinton - 123

10 - 10:30

Romney locks Utah and Nevada, but Clinton gets Iowa. Neither candidate is currently projecting enough votes for the win!

Romney - 172

Clinton - 130

10:30 - 11

No states lock...but Pennsylvania, Maine, Minnesota, and Missippi begin flopping like crazy...briefly projecting a Clinton lead, before giving Romney a slight preference once again.

Romney - 172

Clinton - 130

11 - 11:30

And Clinton takes the official lead! The Senator closes Hawaii, Washington, and California. Governor Romney gets Wisconsin and Idaho. It's still projected to be a nail biter...but Clinton is slightly preferred.

Clinton - 200

Romney - 186

11:30 - 12

Oregon locks on Clinton...but Ohio and PA flop towads Romney, continuing to give him hope. Both the actual and predicted results remain nail biters.

Clinton - 207

Romney - 186

12 - 12:30

The actual gap closes, with Romney finalizing Alaska, Vermont and Virginia. This election is almost certain to come down to the last state to close.

12:30 - 1

Fortune continues to shine towards Romney. He closes Ohio and West Virgnia, taking the closed lead...while Pennsylvania and Missippi begin flopping like crazy. If he can retain hold of both of them, the election will be his by a single electoral vote.

Romney - 230

Clinton - 207


Michigan flops, predicting an ultimate win for Romney. The governor closes Maine and Pennsylvania, while Senator Clinton claims victory in Maryland, Missippi, and Tennessee.

Romney - 255

Clinton - 234

1:30 - 2

Michigan is flopping twice a minute. It looks like the whole vote could come down to them. They're currently leaning Clinton by 0.9%, with 87% of the precincts closed.

Romney - 255

Clinton - 234

2 - 2:03

In a period of just three minutes, Romney closes Arizona, while Clinton earns Colorado, Michigan...and Minnsotta. It's the victory in Minnesotta that convinces reporters to finally give her the win.

At 3:03 AM, the final state, Montana, closes for Clinton.

By 5 AM, none of the states had flipped...and Hilary Clinton was confimed as the next President of the United States, with Barack Obama as Vice President. She managed to hold Michigan with only 20 thousand votes...without it, she would have certainly lost.

Clinton/Obama: 273 Evs, 49.2%. 57.9 Million Votes

Romney/Graham: 265 EVs, 48.5%, 57.0 Million Votes

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