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United Kingdom 2008 - The Tory Fightback


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This is nearly finished. All i have to do is the News headlines which i have started. This is why i've not been able to finish the Lib dem leadership election yet, working on this. It's a mix of fictional/realistic results that might happen if an election was called in 2008. This was another user's idea and i have simply made it for him, using the map i created for United Kingdom 1987. Credit to GOP for the issue's and ideas for it.

It's based on 2005 election results such as the candidates standing however, i used the electoralcalculus.co.uk site for the seats which are predicted to be be Tory (or Labour gains). I then modified some of the results myself with the Lib Dems, who i predict will rise in their vote share from where they are now, taking in it's toll of a new leader (Who i have chosen Nick Clegg, next Lib Dem leader unknown at this moment i time). So the Lib Dems range from 18-22% nationwide in this. That might be too optimistic, i might lower them again. I also might increase the Tory vote, as i'm sure they would be in the lead but only slightly. In this they're either neck-and-neck or Labour lead.

Anyway how do the like the slightly better map? The amount of names and length of them were starting to nag me, so i shortenend most of them done on the map. However, what i'm going to do is use a better UK map soon.

Also, as requested, the (not noticed in the pic above) UKIP party and BNP have merged to form the British Right Alliance. Although may never happen in reality, would be a good idea. I've made up my own logo for them. I've yet to play it myself, and i have used interesting electorate trends that are generally in favour of the Tories but unfavourably very much to the Lib Dems.

It's not entirely finished and i won't be able to finish it today so i can upload it for download. Only Events and external events to be finished. HOWEVER, i'll give you it to you if you're happy enough with that. I'll probably finish it tomorrow.

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All finished now! Now you can just download from the link unless your having problems, and i'll email it to you.

United Kingdom 2008 The Tory Fightback DOWNLOAD LINK

I've changed the percentages a littles where in most cases(subject to variable) the Tories are a per cent higher than Labour. I've kept finances for spending the exact same as in the 1987 election. Here's a screenshot:

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31% to 30%? I mean sure today's polls aren't next years polls, but it's been pretty steadily Conservative 40-41% for a while now. Labour is still fluctuating in the mid-thirties and may keep going down, and the Lib Dems at ~13% have finally halted their slide and picked up a few Labour voters. The Conservatives have steadied down, and although Labour may still be falling it's going to the Lib Dems.

Counting undecided that mean, in-scenario, maybe CON 36, LAB 31, LIB 11. Even assuming the Lib Dems recover more voters, they're taking them from Labour right now and it will probably be a fairly even split. Even if Conservative support drops to the pre-Brown era, that's still high 30s and Labour support has managed to go up only 5% or so from late Blair support.

Essentially the Conservatives having a single % lead is way too narrow (and a 150 seat deficiency, since the electoral map is biased against them, is rather bigger than it should be), and I feel you're overestimating the Lib Dems by 3-5%—especially since when you count undecided they could get a vote share into the 20s.

Election financing is from 1987? That seems a little odd, I have to say.

It's only opinion, to be sure, but it feels off based on current knowledge.

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My Percentages could be wrong yes, you would be welcome to cange them yourself. What i didn't get was how i, despite lowering the Lib Dem vote from their 2005 state, the Labour and Tory percentages were also lower than their 33-35% percent 2005 state. However, i changed the population of the seats by only including the turnout number for the 2005 election, and then adding up the numbers in each region to change the population number in regional variables. And the percentages of labour and Tories lowered to late-20s-early 30s. Come to think of it, the percentages are unrealistically too low and i will make them higher. Call me too enthusiastic for bringing out my scenario for not testing it and having flaws. As for the 1 per cent lead, it could happen.

As for the Lib Dems, their polls range from 11-13% right now in reality, but i'm sure once a new leader is elected it will jump up to maybe 15%. Predictions in this period, with an election looking over at least a year and half to go, cannot be over-estimated as parties have been known to be at their lowest or highest ratings in this period, However, with the realisation of an election looming, prediction polls can change and usually the disasterous of scenario's for each party does not become true, like a Lib Dem or Labour collapse, or a comfortable Tory election win. I can't tell the future so the percentages in my scenario could be all wrong, but i will make some changes to it soon.

Since i added in only the population who voted, i made the voter turnout 100%. As for financing, if i could find actual figures the parties used in their election campaign or just simply how much finance they have, i would be more weary about the figures i'm using. I'll see what i can do for that.

Can i also have feedback please on how the scenario plays, please? First time i played last night, and i found the game really hard playing as the Tories. Lib Dems were doing really well, but i made their voters generally less committed than the Labour and Tories, which i didn't get.

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My Percentages could be wrong yes, you would be welcome to cange them yourself. What i didn't get was how i, despite lowering the Lib Dem vote from their 2005 state, the Labour and Tory percentages were also lower than their 33-35% percent 2005 state. However, i changed the population of the seats by only including the turnout number for the 2005 election, and then adding up the numbers in each region to change the population number in regional variables. And the percentages of labour and Tories lowered to late-20s-early 30s. Come to think of it, the percentages are unrealistically too low and i will make them higher. Call me too enthusiastic for bringing out my scenario for not testing it and having flaws. As for the 1 per cent lead, it could happen.

A party gets, say, 60 committed 20 leaning 20 undecided. The 20 undecided don't count in the party's polls. I imagine that's why the party's polls are lower then what you set.

A 5% lead for the Conservatives only brings them even in seats against Labour, which I consider pretty reasonable.

As for the Lib Dems, their polls range from 11-13% right now in reality, but i'm sure once a new leader is elected it will jump up to maybe 15%. Predictions in this period, with an election looking over at least a year and half to go, cannot be over-estimated as parties have been known to be at their lowest or highest ratings in this period, However, with the realisation of an election looming, prediction polls can change and usually the disasterous of scenario's for each party does not become true, like a Lib Dem or Labour collapse, or a comfortable Tory election win. I can't tell the future so the percentages in my scenario could be all wrong, but i will make some changes to it soon.

I'm ok with the Lib Dems being at 18%, just not so much while both Conservatives and Labour are so low. That said it's your scenario and your predictions, I just found it a little unlikely.

As for financing, if i could find actual figures the parties used in their election campaign or just simply how much finance they have, i would be more weary about the figures i'm using. I'll see what i can do for that.

Yeah I googled, but didn't find anything obvious.

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Can i also have feedback please on how the scenario plays, please? First time i played last night, and i found the game really hard playing as the Tories. Lib Dems were doing really well, but i made their voters generally less committed than the Labour and Tories, which i didn't get.

I haven't tried it yet, but looking at the candidates, I'd give Cameron higher charisma than Brown -- either bump him up to 4 or bump Brown down to 2.

Granted, this is from the perspective of a relatively uninformed American who watches PMQs on C-SPAN, but from what I've seen, Cameron strikes me as the better speaker.

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Yeah, definitely won't be 1% lead.

My suggestion (averaging, compared to 2005 swing)

Labour 36% (+0) (maybe 35%)

Conservative 40% (+7)

Liberal Democrat 16% (-6)

I think that's believable, even though Conservatives are a bit lower than I think they'll be. That really could lead to a hung parliament and gives both main parties a chance.

Also don't forget to factor in the SNP breakthrough in Scotland. I think that will probably have a major effect on the outcome of the next elections whenever they are.

Second, I know it means a lot of work, but please don't have turn out 100%. As I understand it the lower turn out setting the more important footsoldiers and relative party momentum is on election day. If you make it 100% I would guess there'll be no 'get out the vote' effect... which personally is a big part of my games. I try to focus on getting as many target seats even or near even, and blow everything on the last few days hoping to get them over the threshold.

I'll d/l this version anyway and let you know my thoughts.

Also, I'll do a Huhne candidate with stats and issue positions if you want. I don't think Clegg will win.

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OK, using the Party Support Modifier I can put in swings.

It's great because the program only supports 13 parties and that's the exact number you have.

So far, this is what you have: (national, averaged for all ridings)

uk2008zp0.png

With comparisons with 2005. (take off "two zeroes" to get it in percentage terms)

If you want me to, I'll do the changes, I'm already used to the program and it won't take me much time...

Personally I think the numbers are fine for the minor parties. The far right could be higher but if you factor in that it's merging three different parties it's inevitable you'd lose votes from that. The only thing that needs changing is the three big parties... as I said I'd suggest at least +2% Tory and -1% Lib Dem, Labour could be changed by -0.5% but it's not essential. I'd reduce all the minor parties by enough to make it add up (should hardly affect them)

What do you think Treasurer?

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Through testing this map with all three major parties, it seems pretty easy. I won majorities with at least 450 seats even with the Lib Dems :blink: . This was on hard with all four options on when i played it with all three and i still managed the massive landslides.

You have way too much money to start in this, that is the main reason it is as easy as it is. 20-25 million would be enough for the Conservatives and Labour with like 12-15 for the Lib Dems and lower for the rest. Some places have very low undecided, but that might be correct with regards to areas in England. Also why are the Lib Dem's and Labour in coalition with eachother at the beginning?

As odd as it seems, the Liberal Democrats platform seems to be slightly better in this scenario than the Conservatives and Labour. Both of the main parties have glaring negative bonuses on high and very high profile issues, while the Liberal Democrats, although they have many negative bonuses, they are usually on yellow or orange low profile issues as opposed to the Conservatives(Environment issue kills them almost everywhere and its very high profile) and Labour (Taxation issue for them, is not as bad as environnment for Cons but still pretty bad for Labour). The Lib Dems need every advantage they can get though, since they start off this campaign losing in 3/4 of their current seats.

SNP seems kinda overpowered, they usally double their seats from the beginning to about 15-20 and if Labor does poorly can win above 20 seats. I even beat Gordon Brown in his riding and won 47 seats in Scotland the first time I played as them :lol: . Plaid Cymru also seems quite strong, there's almost no way any of the major parties will waste time and money in attacking them so they will usually do well in Wales. And the time that I did attack them, a massive shift from Labor to the other 2 parties happened, where i gained a couple seats in Wales and lost about 100 in England since the ads i was making then kept getting delayed. Massive shifts seems to occur occasionally but it is really random and happens even if you are killing the other parties in momentum. Ive lost ~200 seats in one week before only to gain most of them back the next week due to an equally random shift. ;)

Nonetheless though I really like the map. Well done.

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SNP seems kinda overpowered, they usally double their seats from the beginning to about 15-20 and if Labor does poorly can win above 20 seats. I even beat Gordon Brown in his riding and won 47 seats in Scotland the first time I played as them :lol: . Plaid Cymru also seems quite strong, there's almost no way any of the major parties will waste time and money in attacking them so they will usually do well in Wales. And the time that I did attack them, a massive shift from Labor to the other 2 parties happened, where i gained a couple seats in Wales and lost about 100 in England since the ads i was making then kept getting delayed. Massive shifts seems to occur occasionally but it is really random and happens even if you are killing the other parties in momentum. Ive lost ~200 seats in one week before only to gain most of them back the next week due to an equally random shift. ;)

Well, the SNP are predicted to get 20-25 seats next election... Labour is in big difficulty in Scotland at the moment and the SNP are first placed to capitalize. 30+ is no more amazing than the Labour party general election landslide in 97, when the former incumbent party collapses and you have a good image that's what happens.

By the way, I did readjust the ridings data to the poll ratings I gave above and it gave a pretty realistic seat distribution at the beginning.

I was the Lib Dems (created a Huhne candidate I can give you), unfortunately the money + some bug to do with Crusaders led to this:

huhne1df0.jpg

huhne2lr2.jpg

huhne3ja0.jpg

huhne4ow4.jpg

huhne5vl6.jpg

huhne6qs6.jpg

Yeah, it was a super-negative campaign attacking both main parties.

Not bad for a party doing 11% a month ago B)

PS, with this week's events though, you might have to increase the swing again (CON 40, LAB 27, L-D 21, OTH 14)!!

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1) The map is very ugly and you should probably get rid of the useless parts. Ireland, white space, logo, etc.

2) Chris Huhne needs to be a candidate. Hell, he's leading in the damned polls for the leadership ballot.

3) The British Right Alliance is already a party IRL. Hell, the leader's a 80soft user (seriously!). And the BNP and UKIP hate each other's guts. They'll never form a coalition. Ever. Both are powerful enough right now to exist separately.

4) Galloway should be an 'other' candidate/leader. Caroline Lucas should be the default Green leader.

5) London should probably be in four, not two, sections. You've got the North East (notable for all the RESPECT/BNPers), the South East (meh.), the North West (very Tory in places) and the South West (LD stronghold).

I'm probably going to fix the scenario up myself to an extent at least, though.

EDIT: Seems that I'm just plain overhauling the whole scenario at the point. Ah well, it'll never get completed, don't worry. :P

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