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1976 Scenario


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Alright, I'm starting work on a 1976 campaign and this is the thread to comment and suggest stuff.

The reference book I have on me is Jules Witcover's Marathon: Pursuit of the Presidency 1972-1976.

If anybody has online resources, speak up please :). Most notably I need delegate counts per state.

Also does anyone know if it's possible to have candidates enter a race late? Or be in the race but not do anything until triggered by something? Because Jerry Brown & Frank Church both jumped in quite late as the anybody but Carter movement.

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UPDATED, AGAIN

This is what I have so far. Note that I can't model prelim Caucus's so I will treat the first Caucus as the only Caucus (i.e. the final Iowa Caucus for the Democrats was actually the 29th of May). The number is of delegates.

I'm not sure if I can properly model Uncommitted Delegate slates, does anyone know if an Uncommitted Candidate that automatically drops out the week of Convention could work?

Favourite son candidates and/or delegate slate controllers are bracketed next to their state.

DEMOCRATIC TOTAL 3008

January 19:

Iowa Caucus 47

January:

Mississippi Caucus

February:

Oklahoma Caucus

February 24:

New Hampshire Open Primary 17

March 2:

Massachusetts Primary 104

Vermont Primary 12

March 9:

Florida Primary 81

March 16:

Illinois Primary 155 (Adlai Stevenson)

March 23:

North Carolina Primary 61

April 6:

Wisconsin Open Primary 68

New York Primary 274

April 27:

Pennsylvania Primary 178 or 171

May 1:

Texas Primary 98

May 4:

DC Primary

Georgia Primary 50

Indiana Primary

May 10-17:

Alabama Primary 35

May 11:

Nebraska Primary

West Virginia Primary

May 18:

Maryland Primary 53

Michigan Primary 133

May 25:

Idaho Primary 16

Nevada Primary 11

Oregon Primary 34

Arkansas Primary -

Kentucky Primary - 3 states total 118 delegates

Tennessee Primary -

June 1:

Montana Primary -

Rhode Island Primary - 3 states total 56 delegates

South Dakota Primary -

June 8:

California Primary 280

New Jersey Primary 108

Ohio Primary 152

Missouri Convention 71

Virginia Convention 54

A few states, including California, Michigan and Nevada, require a candidate to win only 10% or 5% of the vote, instead of 15%, in order to gain a share of the delegates.

--------

REPUBLICAN TOTAL 2258

(WTA means Winner Take All)

January 19:

Iowa Caucus

February 24:

New Hampshire Primary

March 2:

Massachusetts Primary

Vermont Primary

March 9:

Florida Primary 206

March 16:

Illinois Primary 96

March 23:

North Carolina Primary 54 or 53

April 6:

Wisconsin Primary 45

New York 154 (Rockefeller)

April 27:

Pennsylvania Primary 103 (Uncommitted only)

April:

Arizona Convention 29

Kentucky Caucus 16

May 1:

Texas Primary 96

Louisiana Primary

May 4:

Georgia Primary 48

Alabama Primary 37

Indiana Primary 54

May 11:

Nebraska Primary 25

West Virginia Primary 28

May 18:

Maryland Primary 43

Michigan Open Primary 84

May 25:

Arkansas

Idaho Primary

Kentucky Primary 37

Nevada Primary

Oregon Primary 30

Tennessee Primary 43

June 1:

Montana Primary

Rhode Island Primary

South Dakota Primary

June 8:

California WTA Primary 167

New Jersey Primary 67

Ohio Primary 97

June 12:

Missouri Convention 19 / Missouri Other 30

June:

Mississippi Convention 30

Hawaii 15?

Washington Convention 38

Delaware Convention 17

Iowa Convention 36

Minnesota Convention 18

New Mexico Convention 21

Montana Convention 20

North Dakota Convention 18

Colorado Convention

16 July:

Connecticut Convention 35

Utah Convention 20

--------

Jan. 19, 1976

Last week the Gallup poll reported that Ford's approval rating among Americans slid seven points in late December, to 39%, only two points above his low last April. Reagan's national campaign staff has meanwhile doubled, to about 25, and his 40-odd state organizations are rapidly recruiting volunteers. In contrast, Ford's supporters are still relatively disorganized, though the President is shortly expected to name outgoing Commerce Secretary Rogers Morton as campaign coordinator in an effort to pull them together. Reagan's fund raisers have collected about $2 million in private donations, against the Ford organization's $1.7 million.

SPENDING

13.1 million (half matching public funds) pre-convention limit. 10% in two consecutive primaries to keep public funds.

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