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1972 Primary Scenario


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Alright. I'm going to start trying to put together a 1972 scenario (since it's a tangled-up mess), and I'd like some assistance. As far as candidates go, we have the following:

Major Candidates:

-George McGovern: The eventual winner; he had strength in caucuses where his people would pack the room.

-George Wallace: Ran an amazing primary campaign until he was shot. I think he would have won if not for this (or at least managed to block McGovern in a floor fight), personally, but that's just me. The fact that he piled up a bunch of votes in CA, where he wasn't on the ballot, and in NM, where he got over 20%, following the shooting shows this.

-Hubert Humphrey: Former Veep. Did well in a few states, but largely ran a "non-campaign."

-Ed Muskie: Former VP candidate for Humphrey. Was the initial frontrunner. Cried at a bad moment. Won a bunch of early contests, but stalled out after being embarassed by a lousy showing in NH.

"Second Tier" candidates:

-Henry "Scoop" Jackson: Hawkish Senator from Washington State. Won a few early contests (OK and SC were rather early), but ended up going nowhere.

-Shirley Chisholm: Only contested two primaries (and a few caucuses). First black woman to (seriously) run for a major party ticket's nomination.

-John Lindsay: Mayor of New York City. Didn't win any states; largely a NY favorite son, IIRC.

-Wilbur Mills: Longtime AR Congressman, Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, and de facto AR favorite son.

-Eugene McCarthy: Failed '68 candidate; really didn't go anywhere, but ran strong in IL courtesy of being Muskie's only opponent there.

-Fred Harris: Senator from Oklahoma; popular with the party's left-wing base.

-Harold Hughes: Left-wing governor of Iowa. Trivia piece: Iowans were once polled as wanting Hughes and George Wallace on a ticket together.

-Walter Fauntroy: DC favorite son; DC wasn't particularly contested, except by a pair of favorite sons (the other, I believe, being Walter Washington). Might just be easier to remove DC b/c of this.

A couple of notes:

1) Ballot access ain't universal. I'll come up with a list of who-fought-who-where with a visit to the local library, but I know, for example, that Wallace wasn't on the ballot in CA (though he ran up 7.5% in write-ins in spite of being effectively out of the race then), while Chisholm only contested two later primaries (NJ, which she won, and MS if it had a primary), and McCarthy was (as I recall) Muskie's only opponent in IL.

2) Early victories didn't necessarily cause a big momentum pickup; still, a few contested wins flipping against McGovern would probably have put him in a bad place.

3) Lots of contests were later in the process. NH was in March; you didn't have many contests until late April and May.

4) For the sake of the game, it may be better to dump "loose caucuses" (ie non-primary and non-Iowa states) at the end (and all in one swoop) because of the nature of caucuses at that time.

Resource:

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1972.html

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Well, Mills wasn't the Governor of AR, but like a 16 or 17 term incumbent congressman and Chair of House Ways & Means, so I'd set his Experience value at 5, and everything else no higher than 2 except perhaps issue familiarity. He tried to get a national campaign going but it never really got off the ground, so "favorite son" may not be an entirely accurate description, but it's basically what he became. Also had a very far-left position on Social Security for it's time.

I'm glad someone is doing this though, should be a barn-burner.

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Noted about Mills. I'm also going to slip Ted Kennedy in there as well, as a prominent candidate who didn't run, and not bother with DC and Fauntroy.

Attribute listing time...

McGovern:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 3

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 1

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $500,000

How established party: 5

Wallace:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 2

Experience: 4

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 4

Stamina: 4

Debating: 3

Cash: $1,000,000

How established party: 5

Humphrey:

Leadership: 4

Integrity: 3

Experience: 4

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $1,500,000

How established party: 5

Jackson:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 3

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 4

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $1,000,000

How established party: 5

Chisholm:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 3

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $250,000

How established party: 5

Lindsay:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 2

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $500,000

How established party: 5

Mills:

Leadership: 2

Integrity: 2

Experience: 5

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $250,000

How established party: 5

Kennedy:

Leadership: 4

Integrity: 2

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 4

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $2,000,000

How established party: 5

McCarthy:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 2

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 2

Stamina: 3

Debating: 2

Cash: $250,000

How established party: 5

Fred Harris:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 3

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 3

Cash: $250,000

How established party: 5

Harold Hughes:

Leadership: 3

Integrity: 3

Experience: 3

Issue Familiarity: 3

Charisma: 3

Stamina: 3

Debating: 2

Cash: $100,000

How established party: 5

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1) I wasn't planning to worry about the GOP side, at least until the general election stuff gets hammered out.

2) Good call on Hughes and Harris; I'd thought Harris was a strictly '76 candidate.

Actually you are right. I got '72 and '76 mixed up. Scratch Harris.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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