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PForever Election Prediction #1


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I posted this article on my blog RIGHT HERE but I figured it'd be of interest to all'yall as well.

I thought it would be a fun idea to predict the election in a few days, using the computer game President Forever, developed by 80soft. http://www.80soft.com/pforever/info/index.htm It is a very realistic campaign game, with 4 parties and regional data and trends.

I used the scenario "September 15" by Daniel Schrader which featured the most recent poll data. I altered the files in the following ways:

changed the poll results to match the most recent results from each state according to the Rasmussen Reports. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%...0Projection.htm

changed the data to allow significantly less shift in picks by polled voters before the election

changed the data to show significantly less undecided voters where updated poll data was not avaliable

set the voting turnout at 65%

I then ran the game from today's date, October 30, 2004. I looked on campaign websites to determine the location and type of events and campaign stops around the nation for each day in the simulation, and placed those in the simulation. I also adjusted the importance of certain issues- for example, I heightened the awareness of the Terrorism issue due to the bin Laden tape yesterday.

Here are the simulation results, in order of time of poll closing.

INDIANA 11

Bush 52.3

Kerry 39.6

Nader 5.6

Badnarik 2.3

KENTUCKY 8

Bush 52.8

Kerry 43.8

Nader 2.8

Badnarik 0.5

FLORIDA 27

Bush 49.0

Kerry 44.8

Nader 4.6

Badnarik 1.4

GEORGIA 15

Bush 51.8

Kerry 24.0

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 1.4

NEW HAMPSHIRE 4

Kerry 48.2

Bush 46.5

Nader 3.8

Badnarik 1.4

SOUTH CAROLINA 8

Bush 56.5

Kerry 40.1

Nader 2.8

Badnarik 0.5

VERMONT 3

Kerry 54.5

Bush 36.8

Nader 8.1

Badnarik 0.5

VIRGINIA 13

Bush 48.8

Kerry 43.9

Nader 4.8

Badnarik 2.4

NORTH CAROLINA 15

Bush 52.4

Kerry 42.4

Nader 3.7

Badnarik 1.4

OHIO 20

Bush 48.8

Kerry 45.8

Nader 3.8

Badnarik 1.4

WEST VIRGINIA 5

Bush 48.4

Kerry 43.9

Nader 5.2

Badnarik 2.4

CONNECTICUT 7

Kerry 54.9

Bush 39.8

Nader 4.6

Badnarik 0.5

DELAWARE 3

Kerry 52.2

Bush 43.4

Nader 3.8

Badnarik 0.5

ILLINOIS 21

Kerry 51.2

Bush 40.7

Nader 5.6

Badnarik 2.4

MAINE 4

Bush 47.5

Kerry 47.2

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 0.5

MARYLAND 10

Kerry 50.2

Bush 41.9

Nader 5.8

Badnarik 2.0

MASSACHUSETTS 12

Kerry 56.7

Bush 33.6

Nader 9.1

Badnarik 0.5

MICHIGAN 17

Kerry 49.5

Bush 46.0

Nader 3.9

Badnarik 0.5

MISSISSIPPI 6

Bush 63.5

Kerry 32.5

Nader 3.4

Badnarik 0.5

MISSOURI 11

Bush 48.0

Kerry 45.0

Nader 5.4

Badnarik 1.4

NEW JERSEY 15

Kerry 51.5

Bush 42.3

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 1.4

OKLAHOMA 7

Bush 62.8

Kerry 33.8

Nader 2.8

Badnarik 0.5

PENNSYLVANIA 21

Kerry 48.4

Bush 45.3

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 1.5

RHODE ISLAND 4

Kerry 56.8

Bush 34.1

Nader 8.5

Badnarik 0.5

TENNESSEE 11

Bush 48.8

Kerry 42.0

Nader 5.6

Badnarik 3.4

TEXAS 34

Bush 60.3

Kerry 36.3

Nader 2.8

Badnarik 0.5

D.C. 3

Kerry 54.8

Bush 35.3

Nader 9.3

Badnarik 0.5

ARKANSAS 6

Bush 50.0

Kerry 43.9

Nader 4.6

Badnarik 1.4

ALABAMA 9

Bush 51.4

Kerry 41.9

Nader 5.2

Badnarik 1.4

ARIZONA 10

Bush 52.6

Kerry 43.5

Nader 3.3

Badnarik 0.5

COLORADO 9

Bush 49.2

Kerry 44.6

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 1.4

KANSAS 6

Bush 62.2

Kerry 34.4

Nader 2.8

Badnarik 0.5

LOUISIANA 9

Bush 51.2

Kerry 43.5

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 0.5

MINNESOTA 10

Bush 46.0

Kerry 45.5

Nader 6.1

Badnarik 2.3

NEBRASKA 5

Bush 60.0

Kerry 32.7

Nader 6.7

Badnarik 0.5

NEW MEXICO 5

Kerry 52.2

Bush 42.5

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 0.5

NEW YORK 31

Kerry 47.7

Bush 44.9

Nader 5.0

Badnarik 2.3

NORTH DAKOTA 3

Bush 60.6

Kerry 33.0

Nader 5.6

Badnarik 0.6

SOUTH DAKOTA 3

Bush 52.3

Kerry 37.4

Nader 9.7

Badnarik 0.5

WISCONSIN 10 BUSH

Bush 48.0

Kerry 46.7

Nader 3.8

Badnarik 1.4

WYOMING 3

Bush 66.8

Kerry 28.0

Nader 4.6

Badnarik 0.5

IDAHO 4

Bush 63.0

Kerry 27.7

Nader 8.6

Badnarik 0.5

IOWA 7

Bush 47.9 (714,876)

Kerry 47.9 (714,555)

Nader 4.6

Badnarik 1.5

MONTANA 3

Bush 56.0

Kerry 35.3

Nader 8.0

Badnarik 0.5

NEVADA 5

Bush 48.1

Kerry 46.6

Nader 4.7

Badnarik 0.5

UTAH 5

Bush 66.7

Kerry 27.9

Nader 4.8

Badnarik 0.5

CALIFORNIA 55

Kerry 50.5

Bush 39.9

Nader 9.0

Badnarik 0.5

HAWAII 4

Kerry 48.6

Bush 47.9

Nader 2.9

Badnarik 0.5

OREGON 7

Kerry 51.7

Bush 43.4

Nader 4.3

Badnarik 0.5

WASHINGTON 11

Kerry 51.2

Bush 43.6

Nader 3.7

Badnarik 1.4

ALASKA 3

Bush 57.1

Kerry 43.2

Badnarik 5.2

Nader 3.3

TOTALS

Bush 305 47% (70,256,035)

Kerry 233 45% (66,829,096)

Nader 5% (7,535,100)

Badnarik 1% (1,834,992)

DATA NOTES: The simulation runs on a few assumptions- that the game is an accurate predictor, and that the poll results from Rasmussen are correct. The polls at this date in 2000 incorrectly showed Bush ahead when Gore ended up winning the popular vote, and most new voters this year are expected to cast a ballot for Kerry.

So I assumed the simulation would show more votes for Bush that is to be otherwise expected. Also, the votes for Nader and Badnarik are inflated as well. I did not fix that, as I am using their data to represent the votes cast for the Green, Constitution, Taxpayers, Socialist, Communist, Prohibition and Freedom Parties that were not part of the simulation.

I will adjust the data tomorrow and Monday on the latest polls and post the results of those simulations.

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Two things:

Spartacus007: That is etirely inaccurate. Bush has no chance of winning DC or Minnesota, Pennsylvania will not be that close, and Nader has no chance of getting 5% because he isn't on every ballot.

Dennis Kussinich 08: Badnarik will not get 5%, Cobb won't get even 0.5%, and Nader will not get 3%. And those numbers are over 100%!

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What if he does not, and the American people show that they have a decent collective brain?????? :P

No the Americans will vote for the most honest trustworthy and awesome leader. They did and Bush has four more years. There is a moral majority that has overpowered the left-wing socialist scum! :D

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