2012

[Maviejderha 0]

Rockefeller will be 75 years old in 2012. I think that is too old. Maviejderha, Warner isn't challenging Allen in 2006.

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didn't realize that...I think that's a mistake for him; he's only been governor for four years, right?

[mokbubble2 0]

Didnt realize Rockefeller was that old. He looks rather young.

Who wouldve guessed Mary Landrieu and John Edwards are 50? The foundtain of youth really was in the South.

ANy other potential Democrats? What about the guy who beat Slade Gordon in Washington, cant recall his name, and Spitzer of New York.

[sarnstrom54014 1]

Didnt realize Rockefeller was that old.  He looks rather young.

Who wouldve guessed Mary Landrieu and John Edwards are 50? The foundtain of youth really was in the South.

ANy other potential Democrats?  What about the guy who beat Slade Gordon in Washington, cant recall his name, and Spitzer of New York.

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Maria Cantwell beat Gordon, and Spitzer would also be a good candidate.

[progressivedem 2]

Maria Cantwell beat Gordon, and Spitzer would also be a good candidate.

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As someone who knows Cantwell, trust me, she ain't gonna run. And I think Spitzer would first need NY Governor before president.

I really think the parties are (or at least should) nominate governors, not a senators. Senators may be good with policy, but they haven't really had to have the administrative experience of running something large. Plus, the opposing party can rip apart the voting record of a senator, like the GOP did to Kerry with his Iraq voting record.

[mokbubble2 0]

Yes, Americans seem to really like Governors recently. That's why I included Spitzer, because by 2012 he would be one of the only big name Democrats that would still be viable that we know of along with Arizona's and Richardson. Spitzer could, lose but any of the other politicians mentioned could lose before 2012 comes. I think that is enough candidates, maybe Ill add two movie stars, but anymore I think would be overkill.

Right now Im messing with the issue database, so let's finish our discussion on that.

RIght now we have immigration, war on terror, debt, and Iran as big issues.

A foriegn issue Ill put out for discussion is relations with Europe. It's really not a big deal now in the eyes of MOST Americans, but by 2012 will it get more intense, because of competition. Will we be building our fighters to compete with Euro-fighters rather than Russian Migs and Su's?

What other domestic issues will come...which ones will go

I have affirmative action dying in national prominence.

[HabsFan21 4]

In my crystal ball, I see Same Sex marriage becoming a non-issue as most states accept civil unions and others don't.

[mokbubble2 0]

I thought that a year ago, but underestimated the resentment against it in this country. I never thought the constitutional amendment banning same sex marraige would make it anywhere, and it was being floated largely for symbolic purposes. I was wrong, and I think California could even pass the amendment,

[sven 1]

Maybe we could get one democratic and one republican to play a game on a neutral 2008 scenario, and whoever wins that game, that becomes the backstory for the 2012 scenario?

[mokbubble2 0]

Sounds good actually, and that will give me time to make the 2012 scenario. Then addittional candidates can come later. What would be fun is have two experienced players do the 2008 scenario and do a play by play on the boards.

THen if you reeeeeeeeeeeeeally want to get elaborate we could always simulate the presidency on Superpower 2 to set the conditions of 2012.

Naw in seriousness, sounds like a good idea.

[CapA2040 1]

Evan Bayh could be '08 or '12. Sure, he may run now, but that doesn't mean he won't in 2012.

[mokbubble2 0]

For sure. So lets see if we can get two forum players to do a matchup, meanwhile lets focus on issues. and states.

[mokbubble2 0]

Here is my predictions for state trends in 2012.

Ark will stay the same that is, mostly Democratic but with a large disecnhanted base, where as the Republicans have slightly less registered voters, but an extremly loyal base.

Coloradio will become blue, because Democrats gained some 5% in the presidential election one seat in the house and a senate seat against Coors

FL, who knows, everything seems to point at it becoming more Republican, but it may be that Florida relaly didnt like John Kerry, and I dont blame them. Kerry ran a pathetic campaign there in my opinion. The death of Castro may shake up politics there a little bit. Overall Id guess it is going to be more Republican, as the Dems continue to lose Dixiecrat voters.

LA Hurricane could shake things up here. Overall an extremly moderate Democrat beats anything, but anything but an extremly moderate Democrat will result in a Republican win. Poverty levels here should rise, which will put it in play.

Mn More Republican , but as it becomes more urban, it will still be winnable for the Dems, though increasingly difficult.

Mich- Democrats are alienating unions IMO, the New Democrat philosphy was great for the party in some areas, but if there are little differences in trad epolicy, MI voters will vote Rep based on social and gun issues.

Missouri, More Republican, as Saint Louis shrinks, and residents move beyond the state line into East Saint Louis, ILL. This state may no longer even be in play.

Maine More Democrat

Nevada, more Democrat, high housing prices in urban California will move voters into Nevada. Nevada is also rapidly urbanizing

New Hampshire Slightly more Democrat but it seems the big primary states liek to remain independent

Oregon, More Democrat but still close.

PA- I think this will be more of the same but perhaps slighly more Republican, as unions lose importance and urban voters from PItts and Philadelphia move out of PA.

Virginia, Muslims and other minorities are moving into Northern Virginia, which will make the state slighly more Democratic, but will still lean Republican

West Virginia. After Bush is gone, Democratic presidential candidates will do better, but the state is never going back to being solidly Democrat. Joe Republican vs Joe Democrat should result in a win of 4% for Joe Republican

Washington-More Republican once Bush is gone, and a more "yuppie" freindly candidate emerges.

Iowa. More Republican as has happened since 1980, but it will still be close. Iowa is more urban than people think it is, and they have a history of being independent

Ohio- What can you say, Ohio knows a winner. I can see this remaining true. Demographically speaking, I can see this becoming a bit more Republican, economically I see it turning more Democrat, as the economy there still hurts.

Most other states will polarize, California may become much closer if issues change. I dont relaly see it being a permenant "blue state." Texas of course will be closer when Bush is gone but still solidly Republican. Democrats could make gains of 15% or so, which may influence the national popular vote, but hardly the state's electoral votes.

[mokbubble2 0]

The last post was competely unscientific and only opinion. The next post will be what the electoral college is predicted to look like in 2012, and that will be from actual research reports.

THe last thing I'd say about my post is that it only reflects how people will afliate with parties. As issue importance changes, so do voter preference. SO that will come when we deceide what the big issues for 2012 will be.

[progressivedem 2]

Let's see, I think abortion will still be a large issue, CFR may have died out, Ecology will be more important, SSM would probably have been resolved, Imigration, SS, Healthcare, and Energy will all be huge.

[mokbubble2 0]

added Stephanie Herseth as a Democratic candidate, know of any relaly young Republicans?

[progressivedem 2]

Gavin Newsome maybe? (Mayor of San Fran)

[mokbubble2 0]

Now that would be fun.

[RonnieRaygun04 3]

THen if you reeeeeeeeeeeeeally want to get elaborate we could always simulate the presidency on Superpower 2 to set the conditions of 2012.

Yes, Superpower 2. The future will have an unbearable form of copy protection that ruins computers.

[HabsFan21 4]

Well, then, of course, someone will mess up the feed into the computer, and it will say Buchanan won...

[mokbubble2 0]

that copy protection in super power is really horrible

[Bane 0]

Yes, Superpower 2. The future will have an unbearable form of copy protection that ruins computers. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Uggggh, I'm never pirating a game again after THAT ordeal.

[CapA2040 1]

that copy protection in super power is really horrible

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Ewww.... Starforce *shudders*

[RonnieRaygun04 3]

Sad thing is I bought it LEGALLY and I can't use it. That's when copy protection goes too far...when people who actually paid to use the game can't do so without ruining their system. Took me months before I finally found all the Starforce crap and got rid of it.

[mokbubble2 0]

Who will be the Republican candidates?

[jce1648 0]

Quick thought about the Republican party's "extremely loyal base":

I could be wrong but I foresee a train wreck for the party coming very soon if both judicial nominees don't vote to overturn Roe v. Wade (the main reason that most of the people I know held their nose and voted for Bush despite their misgivings about the war, the economy, the environment, etc...).

Consider the following passage from Thomas Frank's What's the Matter with Kansas: The leaders of the [GOP] backlash may talk Christ, but they walk corporate. Values may "matter most" to voters, but they always take a backseat to the needs of money once the elections are won. This is a basic earmark of the phenomenon, absolutely consistent across its decades-long history. Abortion is never halted. Affirmative action is never abolished. The culture industry is never forced to clean up its act....

This is vexing for observers, and one might expect it to vex the movement's true believers even more. Their grandstanding leaders never deliver, their fury mounts and mounts, and nevertheless they turn out every two years to return their right-wing heroes to office for a second, a third, a twentieth try. The trick never ages; the illusion never wears off. Vote to stop abortion; receive a rollback in capital gains taxes. Vote to make our country strong again; receive deindustrialization. Vote to screw those politically correct college professors; receive electricity deregulation. Vote to get government off our backs; receive conglomeration and monopoly everywhere from media to meat-packing. Vote to stand tall against terrorists; receive Social Security privatization. Vote to strike a blow against elitism; receive a social order in which wealth is more concentrated than ever before in our lifetimes, in which workers have been stripped of power and CEOs are rewarded in a manner beyond imagining" (page 6).

Thoughts?

jce