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General Election polling makes very little sense sometimes


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So I've played this game for a couple years now. It's a great one, and I love to play it a lot. Let me just get that out of the way before I bring up my questions and critiques.

With more recent elections, sometimes the general elections make very little sense. I ran a simulation of Kasich vs. Clinton in 2016 and Kasich won almost every time with ~300 EVs, yet every time I play as Kasich in 2016, the general election tightens up as we get closer. States like West Virginia and Indiana turn blue, which makes absolutely no sense in 2016.

I play the 2024 campaign as Harris (which is not made by the developers but it still serves my point), who wins the simulation 10/10 times against Trump, however as I get closer to the general election, Virginia, New Mexico, and Maine turn red while states like Washington become tossups. 

Playing as Obama in 2008 and 2012, I can sometimes run up a 10 point lead in Florida -- which is ridiculous -- and sometimes playing as Republicans in elections 2008-2016, the Democrat can run up 10 point leads in North Carolina. 

I have many wins in this game so it's more than certainly not a player issue. I know how to campaign properly, I have many hours in this game, no question about it. Though I have to ask, has anyone else observed this flaw? How do the scenarios I describe make any sense? 10 point leads in Florida, Dem +10 in North Carolina, Blue WV, Red VA NM & ME in post 2012 elections. I understand that no game is going to perfectly simulate reality, but these things make no sense and are not very close to accuracy. 

Despite that I still enjoy the game just fine and it's great. I'm just asking if I'm the only one with this issue. 

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