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Midterm 2022 predictions


270sims

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On 10/26/2022 at 1:52 PM, Anthony_270 said:

Reward is bragging rights. Go ahead and make predictions for Senate and House.

If I post here, I think I will hold off until Nov. 7.

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This is my Senate/Governor maps prediction. GA and PA are looking very suspect, as they did in 2020. WI and MI are harder to predict, but I think Johnson and Whitmer have these races. NV in both races looks to be swinging in between, and AZ Gov looks pretty safe for Lake, safe for Kelly-but then again, people had written off AZ for both Trump and McSally, so I'm not comfortable calling it quits. KS has literally had no polling, so I'm putting it as R because it's KS, not because Kelly is weak. That'll be interesting to see next week, whether Kelly loses by less or more than 5. Either way, OR Gov is also interesting to see if Drazan can hold her lead. Smiley is (unfortunately) not going to give us Rs a heart attack and flip WA Sen, and I just can't see Zel holding on in NY against Hochul. Ohio seems set for Vance, but Ryan looks to be rallying back. DeSantis and Rubio are good for their races-honsetly they should just go back to Washington and not bother. Kemp and Walker will be the biggest watches of the night. Will Walker unseat Warnock outright? It seems he definitely could, but I'm not holding my breath. GA Republicans dropped it in 2020, and they could be dangerously close to repeating their error again. Oh well, we'll all have to see. 

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I think with all the polls indicating that the moderates are breaking toward the GOP I think Republicans will see good gains, keeping all the seats they currently hold, plus flipping Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Georgia and Arizona will be pulled over the line by their respective strong governor nominees. Nevada, Adam Laxalt has been consistently ahead in polling, and he has been one of the better GOP nominees this cycle for staying on message and no major issues related to scandals or anything. I also think there may be GOP upset in CO, NH, or WA, how the polls have absolutely closed up in the last two weeks has been quite surprising, I feel the most likely out of the three for an upset is more than likely Colorado, Joe O'Dea is a great candidate for the state of Colorado, and may help Heidi Ganahl. 

 

As for Governor I think there are going to be some major upsets as Crime is much more of a major issue. One other thing to remember is that voters are less hard partisan with governor elections than federal elections, so Upset New York, MI and OR. Desantis will win by 10 points in Florida, and Republicans are going to have a good Night. 

 

I also think, as many people do, republicans will win the house, the real question is how many seats will republicans hold, will they beat their record of 247 they held after 2014? Its going to be a very interesting night on Tuesday.  

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This is my prediction for the United States Senate Elections. The next Senate Majority Leader will be a Democrat.

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If Joe Biden had won NC in 2020, as he was projected to do, I would think Beasley will win. I believe the time until Georgia's runoff will work in favor of Senator Warnock. The days of John Fetterman winning by double digits are long gone, but I think he will come from (very, very slightly) behind and flip PA's Senate seat. Nevada's Senator, Cortez-Masto, will fall victim to the classic recipe for a re-election defeat - a Democrat incumbent in a swing state in a Republican-leaning year. I think polls will be drastically off in Alaska (again), and Senator Murkowski will remain the Republican Senator from that state. Evan McMullin's unorthodox candidacy will not be able to overcome Utah's strong Republican lean, especially since Donald Trump is not running for office this year.

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  • 2 months later...
On 10/26/2022 at 5:52 PM, Anthony_270 said:

Reward is bragging rights. Go ahead and make predictions for Senate and House.

Here is each user's final tally for the United States Senate Elections predictions.

36 Elections Total

Supreme Incompetent Leader: 31 Correct, 0 Incorrect, 5 Uncalled

Berg2036: 32 Correct, 4 Incorrect, 0 Uncalled

Noah3475: 35 Correct, 1 Incorrect, 0 Uncalled

ChrisH: 32 Correct, 4 Incorrect, 0 Uncalled

The biggest upset was in Nevada, whose election 0 users called correctly.

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