Jump to content
270soft Forum

Who is the best Democratic candidate to run and win in 2024?


Who is the best Democratic candidate to run and win in 2024?   

10 members have voted

  1. 1. Who is the best Democratic candidate to run and win in 2024?

    • Joe Biden
      3
    • Kamala Harris
      0
    • Pete Buttigieg
      3
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
      0
    • Other
      4


Recommended Posts

The best out of all possible democrats would be Sherrod Brown IMO. Brown is a red state democrat without turning off liberal voters as Manchin does, plus strong union ties and a strong record in Congress, having voted against the Iraq War and Patriot Act. Brown is also one of the only Democrats who can challenge Trump on issues of trade, with the USMCA being the only trade deal that he's ever voted in favor of.

 

A second option would be Tammy Duckworth, having the Veteran factor as well as being a daughter of the revolution and falling squarely in the middle of the party.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm putting "other" for now. Here's how I view it:

  • Joe Biden will be strongest if he can get his approval back to 45% nationally. Incumbency is very powerful as we saw from Trump, who was competitive despite being a 42%er or so. 
  • Kamala Harris. I see now situation in which she's competitive, except if Biden is forced to retire and she does really well as president leading up through the election. 
  • Pete Buttigieg. If Biden's approval isn't good, then he won't do well as he's part of the administration. If Biden gets to about 50% somehow, and doesn't run for president, then Buttigieg could win. His likely path is to resign before midterms and become a critic of the administration, but that might hurt him with Democrat supporters, so scratch that. I think Buttigieg has to play for 2028. I could see Biden opting not to run, then have an approval spike, and then declare Buttigieg his successor rather than Harris. That's an outside chance though. 
  • AOC. She will excite LW independents and progressives, but she'll see an equal force run against her. Imagine if you merged Bernie Sanders with Hillary Clinton. I think, electorally speaking, the downside of her running is too strong. I say this as someone who is ideologically similar to her. I'm both an idealist and a realist.
  • Sherrod Brown would potentially be strong. He's kind of a likable, common guy that's extremely blue color. It's hard to really hate the guy, if not impossible. Might be the best bet in a tough election. He's getting old now though.
  • Tulsi Gabbard. She's more of a 3rd party-type than AOC. I think as a nominee she'd be a disaster. You'd have almost no support from rank-and-file Democrats, but she'd have a horde of voters who are generally non-voters. You'll have an odd situation of having a high Populist turnout across the spectrum but low moderate and registered Democrat turnout. I don't see her winning any states that are battleground. 
  • Elizabeth Warren. Any many ways, an ideal person for president, I think. However, she's too old. 70+ year old Lisa Simpson will have a hard time inspiring some Demographics. I'm not sure she'll be able to keep Obama-to Trump-to Biden voters. She's a perfect foil for Trump. She might do better against DeSantis. I'd love to see her in debates in a general election, she'd tear Trump or DeSantis to pieces, but she'll never get there. 
  • Al Franken. This might sound completely ludicrous but hear me out. This candidacy only works if Trump is the nominee. Al Franken is a professional comedian. He is sharp-witted and funny. His weakness is his scandal, but that's going to have basically no effect versus Trump for obvious reasons. Imagine a debate in which Franken is stating both profound things and routinely humiliating Trump in extremely comical ways. If anyone can make Trump look like a loser to some of his own supporters it's going to be someone that can use sharp-witted humor. You may remember that I was advocating Al Franken for president on this forum in 2015. Once he was taken out by scandal, I mentioned that I thought it was the first step to a potential Trump victory (even though at the time I was still certain Democrats would win). Do I think Franken will run in 2024? No. I'm 98% sure he won't. I just think him or someone like him--that has both brains and a sharp sense of humor--is what Democrats need. Humor falls into the rhetorical appeal to pathos (emotions). People are more likely to like someone that makes them laugh, even if they might disagree with them. There might be a reason why Ukraine elected a comedian to their highest office.  
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm putting "other" for now. Here's how I view it:

  • Joe Biden will be strongest if he can get his approval back to 45% nationally. Incumbency is very powerful as we saw from Trump, who was competitive despite being a 42%er or so. 
  • Kamala Harris. I see now situation in which she's competitive, except if Biden is forced to retire and she does really well as president leading up through the election. 
  • Pete Buttigieg. If Biden's approval isn't good, then he won't do well as he's part of the administration. If Biden gets to about 50% somehow, and doesn't run for president, then Buttigieg could win. His likely path is to resign before midterms and become a critic of the administration, but that might hurt him with Democrat supporters, so scratch that. I think Buttigieg has to play for 2028. I could see Biden opting not to run, then have an approval spike, and then declare Buttigieg his successor rather than Harris. That's an outside chance though. 
  • AOC. She will excite LW independents and progressives, but she'll see an equal force run against her. Imagine if you merged Bernie Sanders with Hillary Clinton. I think, electorally speaking, the downside of her running is too strong. I say this as someone who is ideologically similar to her. I'm both an idealist and a realist.
  • Sherrod Brown would potentially be strong. He's kind of a likable, common guy that's extremely blue color. It's hard to really hate the guy, if not impossible. Might be the best bet in a tough election. He's getting old now though.
  • Tulsi Gabbard. She's more of a 3rd party-type than AOC. I think as a nominee she'd be a disaster. You'd have almost no support from rank-and-file Democrats, but she'd have a horde of voters who are generally non-voters. You'll have an odd situation of having a high Populist turnout across the spectrum but low moderate and registered Democrat turnout. I don't see her winning any states that are battleground. 
  • Elizabeth Warren. Any many ways, an ideal person for president, I think. However, she's too old. 70+ year old Lisa Simpson will have a hard time inspiring some Demographics. I'm not sure she'll be able to keep Obama-to Trump-to Biden voters. She's a perfect foil for Trump. She might do better against DeSantis. I'd love to see her in debates in a general election, she'd tear Trump or DeSantis to pieces, but she'll never get there. 
  • Al Franken. This might sound completely ludicrous but hear me out. This candidacy only works if Trump is the nominee. Al Franken is a professional comedian. He is sharp-witted and funny. His weakness is his scandal, but that's going to have basically no effect versus Trump for obvious reasons. Imagine a debate in which Franken is stating both profound things and routinely humiliating Trump in extremely comical ways. If anyone can make Trump look like a loser to some of his own supporters it's going to be someone that can use sharp-witted humor. You may remember that I was advocating Al Franken for president on this forum in 2015. Once he was taken out by scandal, I mentioned that I thought it was the first step to a potential Trump victory (even though at the time I was still certain Democrats would win). Do I think Franken will run in 2024? No. I'm 98% sure he won't. I just think him or someone like him--that has both brains and a sharp sense of humor--is what Democrats need. Humor falls into the rhetorical appeal to pathos (emotions). People are more likely to like someone that makes them laugh, even if they might disagree with them. There might be a reason why Ukraine elected a comedian to their highest office.  

Any Governors you think might be able to win?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Any Governors you think might be able to win?

For Democrats? I'm not sure:

  • Gavin Newsom would have been stronger in 2020. I think he's kind of messed up his chances. I doubt he bounces back for 2024 or 2028. Really, Jerry Brown kind of stifled his growth. Could have been a superstar but Jerry Brown wouldn't move aside. 
  • Jared Polis is possible, but he isn't terribly exciting
  • Andy Beshear, depending on what his approval is in the state. He's going to be more moderate than most national Democrats. He might have a better time winning a place like OH, IA, WI than most Democrats. I don't think he's so far in the middle that he'd depress votes either.
  • John Bel Edwards is too centrist, and occasionally conservative. It would be like running someone to the right of Manchin, so he'd depress votes from Democrats. I mention him because he would probably do a solid job. He just doesn't really fit the national scene. 
  • Gretchen Whitmer would be strong if she were a man. I think she's a routine target for Trump and that might give her a Hillary Clinton effect. I think our voters still have enough misogony that you have to be the right kind of woman to run, unfortunately. I'd be okay with her, but she'd probably drive some people nuts, and not only for her record.  
  • Jay Inslee would make Democrats happy in many ways. He isn't terribly charismatic but Democrats trust him more than an insider Democrat. He may be too far to the left for some Independents, but he'd probably be preferable to someone like Trump. However, he isn't exciting. There's something about him the reminds me of Herman Munster from that old show The Munsters but without the humor. Likable but kinda dull. 

All the other Democratic governors won't attempt to run or have zero shot. I'd say of the above, Beshear might be the governor with the best chance for nomination at this point. I think prior to recall, it would have been Newsom. If Whitmer were a man, then her. Polis, Inslee, and Edwards are people that could run but don't have as strong as a chance.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I strongly agree @vcczarthat the democrats need to nominate someone funny and likable. Biden was voted in as a defensive choice bc of COVID. I think Americans are looking for someone who can get them to forget about COVID, not constantly remind them of the dangers of it. That's why Trump is a strong choice, DeSantis is as well, and why I like what I'm hearing about Sherrod Brown. 

 

But seeing all these people... doesn't look like there are many good options at all. Obama would have been a perfect choice, and even a Booker had he performed better in 2020. He's a little stiff though. 

 

A pre scandal John Edwards would have been a good pick. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Booker had he performed better in 2020. He's a little stiff though. 

Booker was like everyone’s 2nd and 3rd choice which is why he underperformed. That’s what happens when you have like 25 candidates. If primaries were ranked choice and everyone was forced to stay in until convention, he might have won. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Booker was like everyone’s 2nd and 3rd choice which is why he underperformed. That’s what happens when you have like 25 candidates. If primaries were ranked choice and everyone was forced to stay in until convention, he might have won. 

I don't think so. Like Beto he had sooo much hype and positive media coverage and people just didn't respond to him. On paper he sounds great, but the guy is boring and frankly didn't seem skilled enough politically to succeed. In debates, he just would go on these long monologues that he clearly was told to say having nothing to do with the question at hand. Even Kamal seemed more skilled in that aspect.

 

The best candidate will be the one who can bring the cunning and adaptiveness politically like a Kamala or Pete, BUT also is super charismatic and avoids having too high disapproval.

 

Tough case. Pete is probably the closest to that but I just wonder if swing state voters would respond to him favorably. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I don't think so. Like Beto he had sooo much hype and positive media coverage and people just didn't respond to him. On paper he sounds great, but the guy is boring and frankly didn't seem skilled enough politically to succeed. In debates, he just would go on these long monologues that he clearly was told to say having nothing to do with the question at hand. Even Kamal seemed more skilled in that aspect.

 

The best candidate will be the one who can bring the cunning and adaptiveness politically like a Kamala or Pete, BUT also is super charismatic and avoids having too high disapproval.

 

Tough case. Pete is probably the closest to that but I just wonder if swing state voters would respond to him favorably. 

Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, Kamala Harris all of them are Paper Tigers, Dems need a hail marry miracle to win in 2024 at this point.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

why I like what I'm hearing about Sherrod Brown

But do you like actually *hearing* Sherrod Brown? The quality of someone's voice is nowadays an important aspect of a candidate - his sounds like sandpaper.

But it's possible he could turn it into a positive asset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, vcczar said:

Booker was like everyone’s 2nd and 3rd choice which is why he underperformed. That’s what happens when you have like 25 candidates. If primaries were ranked choice and everyone was forced to stay in until convention, he might have won.

This gave me an idea. The DNC in particular uses % thresholds to assign delegates. So anyone < 15% doesn't get any delegates. But what about % thresholds in combination with ranked voting? How would Booker have done in that sort of system? (Last candidate in %s eliminated, votes reapportioned according to ranking preferences, and so on.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

This gave me an idea. The DNC in particular uses % thresholds to assign delegates. So anyone < 15% doesn't get any delegates. But what about % thresholds in combination with ranked voting? How would Booker have done in that sort of system? (Last candidate in %s eliminated, votes reapportioned according to ranking preferences, and so on.)

I’m not really sure.  Good question. He’d probably do well eventually. I think the first ones eliminated would be more conservative or fringe, both going mostly to Biden or Sanders. When the more mainstream people start getting cut, then I think Booker rises. Where I think he would do very well is in the old convention style assuming Biden can’t get the votes but is still in first. Biden would be dropped if he has no path forward. At this point, Booker would probably surge up. Warren might get more votes too. Sanders could drop out and potentially overtake Booker because Buttigieg would probably try to stay in, holding potential Booker votes. Warren is kind of a hybrid of Sanders and mainstream which helps her. Booker would win if mainstream greatly outnumbers progressives, especially if Buttigieg drops out to push Booker over the top. I’d say In 2020, the strongest candidates below the surface (broad backup candidate support) was probably Booker and Warren. Not sure where Harris would be. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

If Beto loses the Governor election for the Democrats, he will become the Martha McSally of the Democratic party.

That is so funny, I bet he will lose his little gun stance fiasco from the pres run is going to really damange his rural support, and let be real the only real reason he had any shot of beating Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz seems like a slippery politician and people dont respond to that. MJ hegar got blown out, normal standard republicans in TX will stay the norm espically once the dems lose the border area.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Berg2036 said:

That is so funny, I bet he will lose his little gun stance fiasco from the pres run is going to really damange his rural support, and let be real the only real reason he had any shot of beating Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz seems like a slippery politician and people dont respond to that. MJ hegar got blown out, normal standard republicans in TX will stay the norm espically once the dems lose the border area.

Right. He will probably be facing a more likable opponent, probably be running in a year with less pro-Dem sentiment than last time, he won't have similar out-of-state support, and he is no longer an up-and-coming fresh face but someone who has lost twice in a row.

But who knows? If he wins, it will be a great comeback.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While Buttigieg says he’s not contemplating the race to be Biden’s successor, inside the West Wing, others are imagining it for him. His name is sometimes discussed by aides as a natural Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 — or 2024 if the president opts not to run.

“Nobody in the West Wing shuts that down,” said one person with direct knowledge of the conversations. “It’s very open.”

The chatter has frustrated some staffers of color who see it as disrespectful to Kamala Harris — the first Black woman vice president — and think senior officials should tamp it down. Some of Buttigieg’s former campaign staffers also question whether challenging Harris is feasible given how critical the Black vote is in any Democratic primary, and how Buttigieg struggled to attract those voters the last time around. But there is some existing infrastructure waiting in the wings.

 

Pete has the better chance overall, but Trump would take up a way larger % of the black vote than people realize in this case. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/24/2021 at 5:25 AM, PoliticalPundit said:

Pete has the better chance overall, but Trump would take up a way larger % of the black vote than people realize in this case. 

 

I think you're probably correct here. Buttigieg had almost zero support among black voters in the Dem primaries. However, I think Buttigieg would eviscerate Trump in all three debates. However, debates don't really change the minds of that many voters. I see Buttigieg being strong in NH, VA, WI, MN, AZ, NV, but he'd do worse than Harris in FL, NC, and in GA. I think Buttigieg/Warnock would be a great ticket. You'd have a black minister with a gay ex-military guy. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I think you're probably correct here. Buttigieg had almost zero support among black voters in the Dem primaries. However, I think Buttigieg would eviscerate Trump in all three debates. However, debates don't really change the minds of that many voters. I see Buttigieg being strong in NH, VA, WI, MN, AZ, NV, but he'd do worse than Harris in FL, NC, and in GA. I think Buttigieg/Warnock would be a great ticket. You'd have a black minister with a gay ex-military guy. 

I'd be fascinated to see who Pete would pick as a VP. The logical move would be a black female VP imo but there are just so many ego issues and nuanced race discussions that would end up hurting them I'm not sure what he should do. Most POC voters would probably see it as offensive especially if is a tough bruising campaign against Kampala. Would Kamala take VP Again??? LOLL. 

 

I really don't see many good options at all. Biden solely won both the nomination and presidency bc of black voters and no one does worse with them than Pete (even Andrew Yang would gain a larger % I bet). 

 

 

A Kamala vs. Pete battle would end with no winner and woman/african Americans furious at Pete. The more I think about it... I think it has to be Kamala who wins if Biden doesn't. It's like if someone beat Trump in 2024 for the GOP side, Trump would make sure his voters did not help that person win. The racial issues with a Pete win could not be more overstated. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I'd be fascinated to see who Pete would pick as a VP. The logical move would be a black female VP imo but there are just so many ego issues and nuanced race discussions that would end up hurting them I'm not sure what he should do. Most POC voters would probably see it as offensive especially if is a tough bruising campaign against Kampala. Would Kamala take VP Again??? LOLL. 

 

I really don't see many good options at all. Biden solely won both the nomination and presidency bc of black voters and no one does worse with them than Pete (even Andrew Yang would gain a larger % I bet). 

 

 

A Kamala vs. Pete battle would end with no winner and woman/african Americans furious at Pete. The more I think about it... I think it has to be Kamala who wins if Biden doesn't. It's like if someone beat Trump in 2024 for the GOP side, Trump would make sure his voters did not help that person win. The racial issues with a Pete win could not be more overstated. 

The options for Pete Buttigieg's VPs are:

- Sen. Warnock. Taking him out of the Senate might help GOP retake his seat. 

- VP Harris. Unpopular and will also turnout GOP.

- Stacey Abrams. Will also turnout GOP. Can be really exciting for some Dems, though. 

- Sen. Booker. Not the most exciting but also has little downside. 

- Rep. Allred (black TX Dem and former NFL player). Downside he's also really young. 

- Michelle Obama. I don't think her heart would be in it. Also you want someone with a lot of experience with Buttigieg. 

- Rep. Lucy McBath. Black woman from GA, but also not really exciting and may be best served in GA. 

- Rep. Jim Clyburn. Would be very old, but also highly respected. Sort of a kingmaker for the black vote. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, vcczar said:

The options for Pete Buttigieg's VPs are:

- Sen. Warnock. Taking him out of the Senate might help GOP retake his seat. 

- VP Harris. Unpopular and will also turnout GOP.

- Stacey Abrams. Will also turnout GOP. Can be really exciting for some Dems, though. 

- Sen. Booker. Not the most exciting but also has little downside. 

- Rep. Allred (black TX Dem and former NFL player). Downside he's also really young. 

- Michelle Obama. I don't think her heart would be in it. Also you want someone with a lot of experience with Buttigieg. 

- Rep. Lucy McBath. Black woman from GA, but also not really exciting and may be best served in GA. 

- Rep. Jim Clyburn. Would be very old, but also highly respected. Sort of a kingmaker for the black vote. 

Warnock doesn't have nearly enough experience. Doesn't he have some personal life issues too?

Booker isn't doing anything. Had he gotten closer in the Primary I might consider him, but got absolutely 0 traction. Even less than Kamala.

 

I actually loved the Clyburn pick until I saw he was 81. I don't know, that's probably still the best choice but if you could get a very similar person (guy who is constantly on media shows, well respected by everyone, black) that would be the pick. Given how young Pete is I think it could possibly work but man he is old. A 74 year old Clyburn would be my pick. Otherwise these options are pretty bleh. Democrats should have had more people in waiting in their 50's-60's since it seems like they skipped a huge generation of potential stars in the party. 

 

Believe it or not, the GOP has way better African American future leaders and politicians right now than the Democrats do. Tim Scott, Vernon Jones, Daniel Cameron, Jerome Adams... No wonder the Democrats are terrified. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...