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What Do Democrats Need to Do to win in 2022 and 2024?


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Just some quick thoughts that I had on how Democrats could turn it around:

1. Biden and Democrats need to keep positive and calm over COVID policy and economic reports. Things like, "We got this" and "Everything is going according to plan," and "You'll see improvement before midterms. Just you see." Things like that will at least give the allusion that they got this under control. COVID is the key thing keeping Biden's approval low now that Afghanistan has kind of faded off. 

2. Biden needs to score a blunder-free foreign policy success before early voting Midterms. China is the big newsmaker. Score some sort of major deal with them. Biden needs to have this in the works yesterday and I hope he does. 

3. Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress must pass their agenda before Midterms. Infrastructure must pass. Financial assistance for the pandemic must pass. Both are popular. Make it known that Trump would not prioritize these. 

4. Democrats must win the VA Gov election to stifle any momentum for Republicans. Send all the superstars to VA, especially the VA Beach area which is independent heavy. 

5. Consistently make it about Trump. Consistently bring up the Jan 6th Insurrection. 

6. Provoke Trump into announcing a run for the presidency before midterms so as to make the midterms about Trump and not Biden's approval. A good way to provoke Trump is to consistently call him a coward or a waffler because he hasn't announced yet. Antagonize the hell out of him. Compare him to a teenage girl. "You know, Donald? The fat one-term president that tried to launch a coup? Yeah, him. He's all girl." Provoking Trump will also likely mean DeSantis and others won't run. We then know who Biden will face and it will be someone with more baggage than Biden. 

7. Biden needs to announce an exciting post-midterm agenda. Things that matter to his base, to Progressives, and to independents. Don't worry about satisfying people that are going to vote Trump regardless. 

8. Democrats should also focus on flooding Florida with Democratic star power. If DeSantis loses in Florida (will be tough to beat him), then he likely won't run for president, regardless if Trump runs or not. Focus #2 should be Texas. Abbott is more unpopular than Trump or Biden. 

9. Biden needs more of a social media presence. Perhaps three FaceTime videos (or something like that) a week. In these, he should seem confident, empathetic, hopeful, nice, and in charge. 

10. Pro-Biden or Anti-Trump political opinion writers need to flood the news sources with articles and headlines that show where and how things are improving under Biden. Let the candidates point blame at Republicans. Let the news show that Biden's administration is doing its job. 

Had some other ideas, but thought 10 was enough. I'm curious as to what you think, specifically, would increase Democrat odds in 2022 and in 2024. 

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Biden was a poor candidate who got immensely lucky on circumstances.  It all rides on COVID, but with inflation and no more free money good luck getting the base happy. It's all downhill from here. If they manage to pass either bill by end of October things will improve but there is 0 chance either gets passed. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Treasury Sec. Yellen expects inflation to return to normal next year. I know she's supposed to say stuff like that, so it could just be talk, but assuming the following happens, who do you think wins in 2022 and 2024?

  • COVID cases and deaths decreases to the point that mandates don't exist anywhere in the US, and businesses are fully open inside in major cities again. By 2024, COVID, aside from how it was handled, is not a major issue anymore. Democrats argue Biden took us out of the pandemic and the COVID recession. GOP argues that BIden's policies extended both needlessly. 
  • Inflation returns to normal, unemployment drops, the economy is expected to show a post-COVID boom by 2022, and the post-COVID boom is appearing to be evident in 2024. 
  • A lingering issue will probably still be, who will take the low paying jobs that people are quitting and refusing to work as they're finding work elsewhere, presumably. Oddly, "Help Wanted" signs are still prevalent despite unemployment decreasing and not really that high. 
  • Supply chain is still less than ideal by 2022, but by 2024 the watered-down infrastructure bill that passed Congress, is showing some effect on the Supply Chain, which is about 85% of what it was pre-COVID. Some fear US supply chain will never be what it was before. 
  • Biden has failed to have a foreign policy success by 2022, except those that think ending the war in Afghanistan is a policy success, despite the blunderous withdrawal. Biden fails to secure a international climate agreement breakthrough. He's done nothing regarding China. By 2024, he's securing a bunch of small trade deals hoping one flowers into a major success. 
  • Aside from the watered down infrastructure bill, Biden is unable to see any major domestic agenda through. Assuming GOP takes Congress in the 2022 midterms, Biden starts doing what he can via the executive branch. He attempts to cancel student loans (succeeds if courts don't block him), and attempts to guarantee the right to vote via an executive order, which may or may not be enforceable. 
  • Biden is showing some weariness by 2024 but is still running for reelection. His net approval is better during the midterms and general elections than it is currently -- say 45%-46% at midterms and about 47% during General Election. 
  • Trump announces he's running for president right before the midterms. DeSantis jumps in anyway. Cruz jumps in. Hogan jumps in. Haley, Noem, Cotton, Rand Paul, Graham, Pompeo, and several others wait and see if Trump loses support to DeSantis or Cruz to jump. 
  • Overall establishment Democrats are happy with Democrats in both 2022 and 2024. Progressives are disappointed but then approve of his executive orders post-midterm. Both of these possibly symbolic efforts energize some Progressives and black voters. Independents who aren't particularly ideologically partisan consider the economy the most important issue, which helps Biden as the economy is going northward. NeverTrump Republicans are waiting for a non-Trump and non-Trump-Lackey to be the nominee. They have a big decision to make with either going 3rd party or sticking with Biden again--Biden's exec orders might push them away, but NeverTrump Republicans are probably fewer in number than the Progressives and Black voters Biden needed to energize to vote. 
  • I don't expect Trump to offer anything new in 2024. He'll be banking on 100% nostalgia, same policies, and wishing to relitigate 2020. This isn't going to earn him any new converts. He'll have to bank on 1) Biden 2020 voters not voting at all or voting 3rd party. 2) New young voters not being energized to vote for an old man (same issue Trump might have). 3) Trump supporters who died of old age or of COVID are fewer in number than new young voters that like Trump. 

If the above ends up being the narrative for 2022 and 2024, who do you think wins in these elections?

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