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Trump Killing Biden in Rasmussen Poll


vcczar
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Trump keeps asking whether people miss him yet. My answer is 'no'. I miss some of his policies. But I don't miss the constant personal attacks, blustering, and seeming lack of grasp of policy details.

Biden isn't much better personally, of course! And definitely worse in terms of policies.

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On 10/13/2021 at 1:55 PM, Anthony_270 said:

Trump keeps asking whether people miss him yet. My answer is 'no'. I miss some of his policies. But I don't miss the constant personal attacks, blustering, and seeming lack of grasp of policy details.

Biden isn't much better personally, of course! And definitely worse in terms of policies.

Trump without Twitter will cut all these issues in half.

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On 10/13/2021 at 4:55 PM, Anthony_270 said:

Trump keeps asking whether people miss him yet. My answer is 'no'. I miss some of his policies. But I don't miss the constant personal attacks, blustering, and seeming lack of grasp of policy details.

I agree with this part. I wouldn't want a Democratic version of Trump either.

1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump without Twitter will cut all these issues in half.

So Twitter might be helping him by banning him. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

So Twitter might be helping him by banning him.

Definitely reducing his national profile and impact. Completely possible it might actually be helping his re-election prospects. If Twitter believes that, they might reinstate him. 😂

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34 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Good sign for Biden and company

 

 

Yeah, DC is one of the fastest growing areas and it's growing into Virginia. The state is turning into Maryland, which means it could get a Republican governor, but they'd have to be a lot more like Larry Hogan. 

Ohio is kind of a GOP analogy. It's a former tossup that's been getting deeper red. States that lose or slow in population tend to be more conservative, while faster growing states tend to be more liberal. My assumption is that states "in decline" get nostalgic of their golden days. Nostalgia is more of a conservative appeal. Faster growing states often gain more immigrants, more people just out of college (so increase in college educated), growing cities need infrastructure, welfare, etc. These things appeal more to liberals. 

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2 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

Definitely reducing his national profile and impact. Completely possible it might actually be helping his re-election prospects. If Twitter believes that, they might reinstate him. 😂

Yeah, I think you're right. I was initially glad they banned him, but I admit that was more of an emotional thing. After a couple of days, I opposed the banning, mainly because I'd rather Trump shoot himself in the foot. However, he was banned and still lost, so who knows if Twitter helped in that or if Biden would have won by a larger margin with Trump on Twitter. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, DC is one of the fastest growing areas and it's growing into Virginia. The state is turning into Maryland, which means it could get a Republican governor, but they'd have to be a lot more like Larry Hogan. 

Ohio is kind of a GOP analogy. It's a former tossup that's been getting deeper red. States that lose or slow in population tend to be more conservative, while faster growing states tend to be more liberal. My assumption is that states "in decline" get nostalgic of their golden days. Nostalgia is more of a conservative appeal. Faster growing states often gain more immigrants, more people just out of college (so increase in college educated), growing cities need infrastructure, welfare, etc. These things appeal more to liberals. 

I'm not going to buy into all the "Republicans might win" Virginia hype. I've seen enough. Terry is going to win.

 

The referendum on Biden will have to wait just a little bit longer. 

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Here's some interesting graphs: 

skelley.BIDEN-APPROVAL.1021.1-1.png

skelley_BIDENAPPROVAL_1021_screenshot.png

skelley.BIDEN-APPROVAL.1021.3.png

1. The first graph should give Biden some hope. He's ahead of Trump at this point and he's about where Clinton was. Clinton bounced back. Trump improved slightly. Will Biden do the same?

2. Graph two shows Biden is still extremely popular among registered Democrats. His base hasn't collapsed. This probably means that Democrats don't blame Biden for the continuing pandemic or for inflation or anything like that. Personally, I don't see anything bad domestically or economically that Biden is doing. I think inflation and the pandemic would likely be the same had Trump won. I think my only issue with Biden (other than his age) is that he doesn't isn't getting his agenda through Congress. This is basically how I felt with Obama too. As an action-oriented progressive, I'm used to the disappointment, but I'd rather be disappointed than angry. I'd be a "reluctant approve." The drop in Independents is worrying, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't support Trump or someone more radical than Trump. So I don't worry too much over that yet. 

3. Graph three is the most worrisome. Without high turnout among blacks, Biden can't win GA or NC, and possibly PA and MI. Without high turnout among Hispanics, Biden can't win AZ, NV, TX, or FL. Without high turnout among whites, Biden can't win WI, NH, AZ, TX. I think the decline of success, at least among Hispanics and Blacks, has more to do with disappointment. Biden was promising voting rights, build back better, etc. He isn't getting those through. Once he does, support from these two groups--especially Blacks--will increase. I think the white vote is always the trickiest to satisfy because there is less cohesion on what their priorities are; whereas Blacks and Hispanics have a higher proportion of those seeking protections to maintain equality and equity to give them an equal footing of those with greater agency to maximize their potential. 

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On 10/21/2021 at 9:33 AM, vcczar said:

He's ahead of Trump

To me, this would be cold comfort to an extent. Trump's supporters tend to really like Trump. Biden's supporters are more lukewarm, and indeed to some extent defined by opposition to Trump.

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22 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

To me, this would be cold comfort to an extent. Trump's supporters tend to really like Trump. Biden's supporters are more lukewarm, and indeed to some extent defined by opposition to Trump.

Yeah that's true. Also strengthens my argument that DeSantis is stronger than Trump for this reason. There isn't a national bipartisan NeverDeSantis movement (I use the term bipartisan because the movement isn't bound to just Democrats).

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 11/23/2021 at 9:39 PM, PoliticalPundit said:

more confirmation trump is running

I am 100% certain Trump wants to run again. This flows from everything I've seen about his psychology. There are only 2 things I can see that will stop that. 1. Health issues. 2. Blackmail.

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3 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

I am 100% certain Trump wants to run again. This flows from everything I've seen about his psychology. There are only 2 things I can see that will stop that. 1. Health issues. 2. Blackmail.

Exactly. Reminds me a lot more of his 2016 run keeping his cards close to the chest. If he wasn't running he'd be all over Fox News etc stirring up shit and trying to draw headlines. I'd be stunned if he didn't run and Biden's falling approval numbers make it only more and more likely. 

 

I think regardless of anything Trump is running. Any legal issues I think would actually help him especially going through the GOP nomination and by the general it'd be a non story. Health wise I feel most confident with him as long as Biden wins. If Pete runs could be more of a factor absolutely. Kamala will lose to anyone. 

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