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Trump Killing Biden in Rasmussen Poll


vcczar
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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Still got 3 months and 3 years. Not sure why you’re falling for the slippery slope fallacy. Biden’s presidency has a long time left to change things. Consider that Trump’s approval was also at its worse at this time and then he turned it around somewhat, approval-wise. Same could happen to Biden. 

Or on the contrary, it can get even worse the longer this goes on. Biden is only getting older and less cognizant, inflation is stickier than anticipated, the stock market has had a fantastic run that I wonder how long can last, congress is an absolute mess AND we have an election coming up... 

Joe Biden is the perfect mix of Jimmy Carter and George W Bush and that's not a recipe America wants. The only thing he has going for him is that he's a "calming influence" after 4 chaotic years of Trump but that honeymoon is over. 

 

The difference between the two is that Trump was love him or hate him, a fantastic leader with character issues. Joe Biden has proven to be a likable guy who is totally in over his head to be President. There's a reason he got destroyed the other two times he tried to run and only managed to win bc the media forced Democrats to like him and COVID/shady voting happened. People aren't dumb in America especially Independents, they won't be making the same disastrous mistake again. 

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19 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

People aren't dumb in America especially Independents, they won't be making the same disastrous mistake again. 

This applies to voting for Trump as well or even better. They knew to move away from him in 2020. I doubt Regret-a-Trumps move back to him. They’ll likely not vote or vote 3rd party if they become Regret-a-Bidens

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23 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

and less cognizant

😆

I have no idea which way this admin will go - whether things will improve or continue to get worse.

But my guess is still that Biden is a 1 term President and won't run again.

But I agree with @vcczar , it's easy for many people to say they don't like Biden, but does that mean they go and vote for Trump in 2024?

 

 

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20 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

But my guess is still that Biden is a 1 term President and won't run again.

My main reasoning against this is that, because of the power of incumbency, why would anyone allow a frontrunner to run that would be a 1-termer. It shows a profound lack of foresight that I don't expect political strategists to make. Here's some of my thinking:

1. If Biden is having a serious mental decline, and not just being standard gaffable Biden, political strategists would have known this in advance. They would have arguably worked to prevent it. I think even Obama would have seriously intervened. For whatever reason, they thought he was "fine" or "good enough." However, to play devil's advocate on this point, I did read a book on the Clinton-Gingrich matchup in the 1990s and it mentions Biden as "an orator from Delaware," which I thought was interesting. I know he likes to talk, but the term "orator" seemed odd. I haven't seen much video of him prior to 2008, so I'll have to check that out. In my opinion, the Biden of 2008 isn't terribly different from the Biden of 2021. I think he may fumble over words a little bit more, but this is something I do sometimes in public speaking. For me, it's mainly because I got all the things I want to say scattered around and I'm thinking faster than I'm speaking. 

2. I don't believe that Biden was the only Democratic candidate that could have defeated Trump. He may have been the safest, since even my Republicans friends (including my Trump-supporting best friend) said they liked Biden during the Democratic debates. They didn't dislike Biden until he was the nominee and a few of these friends still liked Biden, even if they didn't vote for him. As president, I don't think any of them like him now. That's my argument for them forcing a Biden nomination. However, I think most of those Democratic candidates would have beaten Trump in that election. Some would have been more exciting than Biden. Biden, like Trump, are kind of like nostalgia nominees. Trump is for people that miss the 1980s. Biden is for people that miss the Obama years. 

3. I doubt they would have expected Trump to run again if he lost, mainly because of Trump's age or Trump fearing a 2nd defeat to an incumbent. Especially, considering we haven't had back-to-back defeated incumbents since the 1888 and 1892 elections. I'm still not completely sold on Trump running again (50%). This means political strategists would have worked hard to make Biden the nominee with the idea that he would likely face someone new in 2024, likely DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Cruz, or Noem. I'd say Biden would have to bank on Cruz or Pence because the others would be flashier than Biden, most likely. 

4. I don't think Biden would independently decide to run against the advice of strategists is my main point. He's a party man, unlike Trump. Biden wanted to run in 2016, but he obeyed the strategists to allow Clinton to enter as frontrunner. I think Biden steps aside only if Harris or other Democrat is much more popular and a Biden reelection bid is polling outside of competitive range as a loss. However, even in that case, who do they sacrifice? Better to have Biden lose in that instance. 

5. Political strategists may have been so certain of a 2021-2025 term success that they thought Biden could run or decline without repercussion for his party. That's putting a lot of hope in a risky strategy. Perhaps they expected a Blue Wave in November 2020, thought COVID would evaporate allowing a new Roaring Twenties, and the Democratic dominant Congress would unleash infrastructure, election reform, police reform, gun reform, student loan debt reform, cyber security, etc. Maybe they were banking that an old Biden would be as a popular as an old Reagan. 8-years of Biden + 4-years of longtime VP Harris, similar to 1981-1993. 

6. Last point, because I'm almost out of time to type, they thought Trump will have destroyed the GOP to such a degree that any Democrat would win in 2024 because of GOP disorganization.

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Because he was the most electable and the first priority was to remove Trump. Haven't you said similar things yourself?

Yeah, but I was talking about Biden vs my preferred candidates (Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren). I also said I would feel a lot less anxious with Biden as nominee over Sanders. I don't think Biden was any more electable than most of those running. He wasn't necessarily worse either though. I think if any were stronger than Biden it was Buttigieg or Booker. Unfortunately for Booker, he was like everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice in the primaries so no one voted for him. It's good to be everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice in a deadlocked Convention, but not in primary eras since 1972.

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there was absolutely no one besides Biden who could have beaten Trump who ran. That's why the media was so desperate to get him the nomination despite the voters so clearly looking for other options. Who else would be able to get the white suburban swing state voters better than Biden? A progressive candidate like Bernie or Warren would have gotten crushed despite Trump's poor work on COVID. 

 

Trump tried to paint Biden as far left which is an attack that fell flat given he's relatively moderate. The other centrist candidates were too inexperienced or had too much baggage for most independent voters. Biden was the perfect person to run against Trump running against the perfect circumstance for him with COVID. 

 

A 2024 race vs Kamala is extremely winnable, though I must admit the media has done a fantastic job of not placing any blame on her for the Biden administration's failures so far. 

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16 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

What the ...?

 

That is a weird image. Reminds me of the photo in which Trump is at a short desk for some reason. 

Michael Tannenbaum on Twitter: "Trump: it's a normal size desk? desk guy  (barely keeping it together): yea… "

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20 minutes ago, vcczar said:

That is a weird image. Reminds me of the photo in which Trump is at a short desk for some reason. 

My understanding is they do these events on a set in a building across from the Whitehouse for technical reasons. But just looks silly to me.

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2 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

Biden's net approval rating down 25 pts from Jan. +18 -> -7.

Disapproval > 50%.

Yikes!!! Will only get worse from here. Just wait till they continue to be so dysfunctional they can’t pass the infrastructure bill and the 2022 campaign starts. Will only hurt his approval numbers.

 

the big issue is progressives have no intention to let Biden “succeed” the way he ran on, bringing republicans and democrats together. They consider it a failure unless things are radically changed. Have fun with a 1 term president then! 

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3 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

Biden's net approval rating down 25 pts from Jan. +18 -> -7.

Disapproval > 50%.

 

54 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Yikes!!! Will only get worse from here. Just wait till they continue to be so dysfunctional they can’t pass the infrastructure bill and the 2022 campaign starts. Will only hurt his approval numbers.

 

the big issue is progressives have no intention to let Biden “succeed” the way he ran on, bringing republicans and democrats together. They consider it a failure unless things are radically changed. Have fun with a 1 term president then! 

@Anthony_270  and @PoliticalPundit the average net approval is -4.9 on FiveThirtyEight. Trump's net approval at this time was -18.4!!!!!!!!!!!!

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2 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

(Which was also more accurate in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.)

What was RCP averaging for Trump at this time 4 years ago?

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11 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

It was much worse. But he started off much worse, so the decline was less. About -8 -> -16.

That's a good point. Yeah, Trump has a low ceiling. I'm wondering if this means, because of Biden's higher ceiling, that Biden can potentially bounce back better than Trump ever could. 

I'm also curious as to how these demographics vote in 2024 vs. Trump if Biden's approval is about 45% on election day:

  • Reliable Democrats (most certainly will vote Biden)
  • Progressive Democrats disappointed with Biden (Still will vote Biden, but some may stay home)
  • Moderate-to-Conservative Democrats disappointed with Biden (still will vote Biden, but may vote for a non-Trump GOP nominee)
  • Independent Progressives (Those that were Bernie or Bust voters will not vote or vote Green, but those that don't believe in hostage-politics--such as me--will vote Biden gladly)
  • Independent Liberals (If Yang runs, might vote for him 3rd party. Otherwise, they'll vote Biden or won't vote)
  • Independent Moderates (Considering Biden is more moderate than Trump, especially rhetorically. I'd assume they'll lean more to Biden than Trump, if they vote at all. Some may vote Libertarian if the nominee is more moderate than a Ron Paul-type.)
  • True Independent (These are those who vote without really considering the issues. They'll vote on how their last 4 years have been. If Biden's approval is at 45%, I assume those that vote major party will vote Trump. However, I expect those that had voted Trump and switched to Biden to not swerve back. You will see a large 3rd party voting here, if they vote at all. 
  • Independent Conservatives (This really depends on how the Jan 6th turns out. Those that were NeverTrump will not vote Trump, but I also think most won't vote Biden again. High 3rd party voting or not voting. However, some may see Trump as a threat and vote for Biden just to stop Trump if they are NeverTrump. Those that aren't Never Trump will likely vote Trump over 3rd party. 
  • Independent RW Populists (This is Trump's base. He's got all of them, except those too lazy to vote)
  • Reliable Republicans (They'd be way more energized for DeSantis. They will largely vote Republican, if they vote. Some might vote Libertarian)

This then leads to these thoughts (note: I think DeSantis wins in 2024 unless Biden hits 47%. If that happens, it's a tossup. Biden wins if he hits 50%):

  • If Trump is the nominee, I expect voter turnout to be the lowest of any 21st century election. Most voters will not want either nominee and both candidates will now have presidential baggage. Low turnout generally helps Republicans. 
  • Similarly, I expect 3rd party turnout to be the highest of the 21st century. This tends to hurt the incumbent, which means it will help Republicans. However, I expect Libertarians to benefit the most from this, so it could hurt Trump, unless Yang runs 3rd party. If Yang runs 3rd party, expect the media and most liberals and progressives to vilify him since his candidacy would certainly doom Biden without Yang having a possibility of victory. I could see Yang-Gabbard as a ticket. 
  • Voter restrictions engineered by Republicans will also help Republicans. 
  • With this in mind, I kind of expect Trump to win if Biden's at 45%, but I also think Trump will lose the popular vote for the 3rd time in a row. I also expect the election map to look really odd because of high third party voting and low turnout. 
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As someone who had Biden winning in 2020, I think he is DOA. For the wrong reasons. Leaving Afghanistan was good, and he was right to deport the Hatians. He was just dealt a bad hand with COVID.

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10 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'm wondering if this means, because of Biden's higher ceiling, that Biden can potentially bounce back better than Trump ever could

Yes, I think this is still right. But it's lowering every day. When you have crowds bursting out spontaneously into 'Let's go Brandon' in massive stadiums, you have a problem.

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