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Trump Killing Biden in Rasmussen Poll


vcczar
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Trump is +10 vs Biden and +13 vs Harris in a Rasmussen Poll. The Poll is a B-grade poll that leans Conservative, but that's a significant margin. Trump never polled that against a Democrat in his life. 

Here's what a 2024 election result would look like if there's any truth to the poll vs. Biden. Add ME and VA flipping with Harris:

ADL21.png

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13 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Today? I do believe Trump would win. 

 

We'll have a great sense in November a year from now but again today it would be a Republican slaughter 

Sadly, I agree. 

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Whether you liked his temperament and political correctness or not, Trump knew how to lead. 

 

America is discovering how inept and incompetent Joe Biden is as a "leader" despite years in Washington. Despite all his supposed long standing relationships and favors, he is at the mercy of Nancy Pelosi (who is trying her best) and he has shown the type of President he is. A nice, calm, old, senile man clueless on foreign policy and clueless on how to get things done. 

 

I'll be stunned if the infrastructure bill passes tomorrow, and if it does it will be thanks to the work Pelosi did. 

 

2024 will be a breeze with Biden running agains Trump. 

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1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump knew how to lead

I agree with you that Trump led boldly on all sorts of issues.

Alas, on the most important issue, Covid, his leadership was muddled. In the end, he lost because of it.

The response that was required was precisely the one DeSantis has taken, but Trump simply isn't a details-oriented person who can immerse himself in the technical data. That's what was required. Atlas was too little too late.

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6 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

I agree with you that Trump led boldly on all sorts of issues.

Alas, on the most important issue, Covid, his leadership was muddled. In the end, he lost because of it.

The response that was required was precisely the one DeSantis has taken, but Trump simply isn't a details-oriented person who can immerse himself in the technical data. That's what was required. Atlas was too little too late.

Agreed. He lost bc of COVID (and shady voting). But looking ahead into 2024, Trump knows now exactly what the response needs to be. He's also in favor of the vaccine, which with DeSantis at his side moves him both more to the center for voters and maintains his GOP base to the highest level. 

 

Biden in 2024 (or Kamala) will still be talking about the dangers of COVID in 2024 and most likely why the 6th/7th COVID shot at that point is necessary. That's a losing battle and the Democrats are stuck with it. I think potentially in 2022 it might still work in their favor, but no chance in hell it will in 2024.

 

 

 

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There’s still a lot of time for Biden to turn his approval around. He and the Democrats definitely aren’t doing many politically expedient things to raise their approval at the moment. I also get the feeling Biden is just trying to ride out the low approval a bit. He hasn’t been in the headlines much. It’s also possible he’s banking a lot on the infrastructure bill. As it currently stands, I’m conflicted if Biden should or shouldn’t run for re-election. I’m certain DeSantis (although I disagree with him on about everything) is certainly better for the GOP than Trump. I kind of want Trump to run and DeSantis to run so they damage each other. Might be the best shot for a Biden re-election. I expect Covid to be no longer an issue by 2024, by the way. 

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Another thing to consider is that Biden's average Net Approval/Disapproval is only -3.7 compared to Trump's -16.9 when he was only 255 days in his term. 

Trump was able to nearly win reelection despite routinely being lower than Biden's current approval rating. This shows the power of partisanship and of incumbency, I think. Trump would probably have lost in a landslide (and Biden would be facing the same) if this election were in 1980 or before. As this is the case, I suspect Biden is favored to win reelection so long as he can improve to 47%, which is about where Obama was for most of the 2012 general election. Biden is currently at an average of 45%. 

One thing to consider as we get to Biden vs _____ polls is this: Will Biden vs. DeSantis polls be more accurate than Biden vs. Trump polls or does the "Shy Trump Voter" effect also effect DeSantis? Is the "Shy Trump Voter" still shy? 

I think what it will take for Biden to lose is if a noticeable fragment of Democratic voters oppose Biden, similar to how a fragment of GOP voters opposed Trump. We also have to see if the Independents that swerved away from Obama to join Trump only to swerve back to join Biden stay with Biden. I think they're unlikely to swerve back to Trump, but they might swerve back to DeSantis.

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Another thing is that we haven't had back-to-back one-term presidents (excluding VPs that took over or presidents that died in office) since Cleveland-Harrison-Cleveland in 1880s and 1890s. That would be Trump's preferred analogy. 

We've also had Pierce-Buchanan but they were of the same party. 

 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I kind of want Trump to run and DeSantis to run so they damage each other.

I *hope* DeSantis is smart enough to realize this would be the case. Either him and Trump run, but make a pact which essentially makes DeSantis controlled opposition whom Trump will not tear down but allows DeSantis to increase his national profile, or just Trump runs, or just DeSantis runs (perhaps if Trump has health issues).

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Or some other scenario, but where each privately commits to limiting attacks.

I doubt Trump agrees to that or if he does, one attack will be too much for him to take, and he’ll take the gloves off. I don’t think behavioral control is really an interest or a skill for him. I think it’s more on DeSantis to refrain from attacks on Trump. However, he may come off as weak in doing that. 

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I just saw some video of DeSantis and sometimes he looks like a chubby version of Michael Scott from The Office (US Version)

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I give it better odds Kamala and company force Biden to not run than Trump/DeSantis run against each other. Ron is not that stupid to burn all bridges to Trump. 

 

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

I just saw some video of DeSantis and sometimes he looks like a chubby version of Michael Scott from The Office (US Version)

America elected George W Bush, calling him Michael Scott only improves his likability numbers. 

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11 hours ago, vcczar said:

There’s still a lot of time for Biden to turn his approval around. He and the Democrats definitely aren’t doing many politically expedient things to raise their approval at the moment. I also get the feeling Biden is just trying to ride out the low approval a bit. He hasn’t been in the headlines much. It’s also possible he’s banking a lot on the infrastructure bill. As it currently stands, I’m conflicted if Biden should or shouldn’t run for re-election. I’m certain DeSantis (although I disagree with him on about everything) is certainly better for the GOP than Trump. I kind of want Trump to run and DeSantis to run so they damage each other. Might be the best shot for a Biden re-election. I expect Covid to be no longer an issue by 2024, by the way. 

Huh?!?!? The infrastructure/debt ceiling failure is the biggest news story in every headline out there this entire week. What headlines are you reading? 

 

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11 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

The infrastructure/debt ceiling failure is the biggest news story

Those are issues not a person. Biden's personally hardly in the headlines. He was yesterday because he went to Congress, but he was almost invisible for a week. Pelosi was in the headlines daily, Biden wasn't. 

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11 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I give it better odds Kamala and company force Biden to not run than Trump/DeSantis run against each other.

I'd say this:

Chance Kamala and Co. force Biden not to run: 20%. The remaining 80% is based on Biden maintaining an average approval that is higher than Trump's average approval in last election. This shouldn't be too hard to beat. Biden's at a low point but his Net Favorables are still much better than Trump's were. Something like -6 for Biden to -13 for Trump. 

Chance DeSantis runs if Trump jumps in the race first: 40%. I think DeSantis stays out if Trump jumps in before or just after midterms, GOP has a Red Wave, and Trump's favorables look better than Bidens. I think DeSantis runs if things look about how they do today: 1) GOP is conflicted on whether Trump should run, 2) DeSantis is polling decently well vs. Trump. Don't forget DeSantis is extremely ambitious. His time is 2024. By 2028, he might have missed his moment, sort of how Govs Christie and Jindal did. They were stars leading up to an election, but then wanted to wait 4 years. By then, people didn't care about them. DeSantis is the Christie and Jindal of the 2024 election. His moment is now. Trump's is long gone, although I expect Trump to run out of complete selfishness, even if it hurts his party and stifles better candidates. 

Chance Trump runs if DeSantis jumps in the race first: 50%. As said above. I see Trump being selfish enough that he could jump in even if DeSantis jumps in first. I think Trump doesn't jump in if, 1) GOP underperforms at midterms, 2) DeSantis jumping in early sees DeSantis greatly surpass Trump in polls. I think if DeSantis jumps in early, then Trump jumps in to take the nomination if, 1) Biden suddenly seems like he'll easily be defeated by whomever challenges him, 2) DeSantis attacks Trump in a way that pisses Trump off. 3) DeSantis gets hit with some sort of scandal or his approval declines. 

The big question is when Trump jumps in. I expect him to make a decision soon after Midterms or possibly right at Midterms to excite GOP voters to go to the polls. That might be the best strategy. If he still hasn't made a decisions long after midterms, it's because he's waiting to see if Biden will bungle something again. 

Kamala and etc forcing Biden not to run is an even more difficult issue. Forcing Biden out hurts Democrats in two ways: 1) It's acceptance that the Democratic administration isn't worthy of reelection. This also kills Harris or Buttigieg if they want to run. 2) It takes away the power of incumbency in the election. On top of this, there's no popular alternative to Biden, Harris, or Buttigieg right now. Harris is more unpopular than Biden. While Biden's avg approval is 45%, just like with Trump, the partisanship is such that Biden's is still approved by the base of his party. He's have to lose that support. For instance, while I consider myself an independent Progressive, the Democrats are my party by default (no other realistic option). I would "approve" of Biden if someone polled me. His policies, for the most part, are favorable. His rhetoric is much more refreshing. I like that he doesn't make it a daily quest to draw attention to himself as well. I assume most people that would vote for Biden, Harris, or Buttigieg feel the same about Biden. That is, supportive. As long as that support remains, Biden will be the Democratic nominee. 

 

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6 minutes ago, populist86 said:

There’s been a lot of buyer’s remorse recently among people who voted for Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Clinton in 2016.

Do you have a credible link for this assertion? Where's the poll?

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Do you have a credible link for this assertion? Where's the poll?

Anecdotal so grain of salt. I volunteered for Bernie’s campaign in 2016 and the discords/slacks I’m on with other volunteers have been overcome with people who held their noses and now regret it. I think if Biden can pass the larger infrastructure bill and do something on healthcare they’ll come home.

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On 10/1/2021 at 10:33 AM, vcczar said:

Another thing to consider is that Biden's average Net Approval/Disapproval is only -3.7 compared to Trump's -16.9 when he was only 255 days in his term. 

Trump was able to nearly win reelection despite routinely being lower than Biden's current approval rating. This shows the power of partisanship and of incumbency, I think. Trump would probably have lost in a landslide (and Biden would be facing the same) if this election were in 1980 or before. As this is the case, I suspect Biden is favored to win reelection so long as he can improve to 47%, which is about where Obama was for most of the 2012 general election. Biden is currently at an average of 45%. 

One thing to consider as we get to Biden vs _____ polls is this: Will Biden vs. DeSantis polls be more accurate than Biden vs. Trump polls or does the "Shy Trump Voter" effect also effect DeSantis? Is the "Shy Trump Voter" still shy? 

I think what it will take for Biden to lose is if a noticeable fragment of Democratic voters oppose Biden, similar to how a fragment of GOP voters opposed Trump. We also have to see if the Independents that swerved away from Obama to join Trump only to swerve back to join Biden stay with Biden. I think they're unlikely to swerve back to Trump, but they might swerve back to DeSantis.

Totally disagree. This is all about Independents.

 

A Gallup poll last week found Biden’s approval rating among independents falling to 37 percent, the lowest it has been since Biden took office, and slipping 24 points below his 61 percent approval rating at the beginning of his administration. 

An ABC/Ipsos poll this week showed independents souring on Biden's handling of key issues, including the pandemic, infrastructure and the Afghanistan withdrawal. The poll found the president's approval on his handling of the pandemic dropped 7 percentage points from August to September among independents, and Biden saw a 9-point drop among independents on his handling of infrastructure.

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8 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

and we're only ending year 1. imagine people going into year 4 of an election year? 

 

 

Still got 3 months and 3 years. Not sure why you’re falling for the slippery slope fallacy. Biden’s presidency has a long time left to change things. Consider that Trump’s approval was also at its worse at this time and then he turned it around somewhat, approval-wise. Same could happen to Biden. 

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