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Beto for Gov in TX


vcczar
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Reports mentions that Beto O'Rourke is going to run for Gov of TX. Here are my thoughts:

  • As someone that has lived 32 years of my 42 years in TX, I can safely say that this is the strongest Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards. 
  • However, he can only be competitive if he recaptures his form from this Senate run vs Ted Cruz. His lackluster president campaign might have been due to his heart not being in the race, but it might also be because there were just a lot of better candidates for nomination. In the TX race, Beto will probably be the best candidate for Dems. Only the Castros or actor Matthew McConnaughy could rival O'Rourke as candidate. 
  • Abbott currently has a 41% approval, unusually low for a GOP Gov in TX. If this is maintained, O'Rourke has a shot. O'Rourke is poling more competitively, but considering McConnaughy outpolls Abbott, it suggests that a anti-Abbott voter exists. Beto would have to convince them to go to the polls. 
  • I don't think Beto's 2020 gun rhetoric is going to matter much. He can fend against that as it is a predictable attack point. Beto won't do anything on guns. He ran further left as pres candidate than his record suggest.
  • Beto is and will remain the underdog, even if Abbott's 41% stays. The state is close to purple, but it isn't there yet. 
  • Beto, barring a huge improvement in Abbott's favorabiltiy, will be competitive. Previous elections have seen Democrats nominated candidates that half the registered Democrats didn't know. They didn't go to the polls. No one knew who Lupe Valdez was in 2018, for instance. Many people don't vote if the aren't fired up. Beto fires up Texas Democrats, even if he doesn't fire up the rest of the country. 
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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Reports mentions that Beto O'Rourke is going to run for Gov of TX. Here are my thoughts:

  • As someone that has lived 32 years of my 42 years in TX, I can safely say that this is the strongest Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards. 
  • However, he can only be competitive if he recaptures his form from this Senate run vs Ted Cruz. His lackluster president campaign might have been due to his heart not being in the race, but it might also be because there were just a lot of better candidates for nomination. In the TX race, Beto will probably be the best candidate for Dems. Only the Castros or actor Matthew McConnaughy could rival O'Rourke as candidate. 
  • Abbott currently has a 41% approval, unusually low for a GOP Gov in TX. If this is maintained, O'Rourke has a shot. O'Rourke is poling more competitively, but considering McConnaughy outpolls Abbott, it suggests that a anti-Abbott voter exists. Beto would have to convince them to go to the polls. 
  • I don't think Beto's 2020 gun rhetoric is going to matter much. He can fend against that as it is a predictable attack point. Beto won't do anything on guns. He ran further left as pres candidate than his record suggest.
  • Beto is and will remain the underdog, even if Abbott's 41% stays. The state is close to purple, but it isn't there yet. 
  • Beto, barring a huge improvement in Abbott's favorabiltiy, will be competitive. Previous elections have seen Democrats nominated candidates that half the registered Democrats didn't know. They didn't go to the polls. No one knew who Lupe Valdez was in 2018, for instance. Many people don't vote if the aren't fired up. Beto fires up Texas Democrats, even if he doesn't fire up the rest of the country. 

I honestly feel bad you've been so fooled by the media hype.. "His heart wasn't in the race"?? LMAO 

So you don't believe him saying, " “Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR-15” will matter in TEXAS? 🤣

Shall we place a wager? 

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7 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

My guess is Beto's run against Cruz is the high mark of his political career. It was a good run, but still fell short. I think replicating the enthusiasm of that run will be difficult.

Yeah, I don't expect it to be easy. It depends if Abbott's ends up being viewed as villainous as Cruz by Liberals. Much of O'Rourke's "success" in that race was because it seems like Democrats and liberal independents had a real shot at knocking off Cruz. The case just needs to be the same for Abbott. Abbott might be in a worse spot in some ways as he represents over two decades of GOP rule -- (1995-present). I was in middle school when there was last a Democratic governor! 

Also, does the below violate any sort of posting rule? I know he's gotten in trouble for emote use and crass behavior before. This doesn't seem like a respectful disagreement. This comes off more like mocking or something. Part of the reason I'm still hesitant to be back on this forum full-time is because I want to avoid behavior like this. I understand him disagreeing with me. It's valid. But this response is uncalled for and seems rather regular on his part, although he has shown some improvement since Trump's defeat in 2020. 

10 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I honestly feel bad you've been so fooled by the media hype.. "His heart wasn't in the race"?? LMAO 

So you don't believe him saying, " “Hell yeah, we're going to take your AR-15” will matter in TEXAS? 🤣

Most Texans don't own AR-15s. Most people don't. He's not saying he's going to take 99% of the guns that Texans do own. The only people that would be spooked by that statement are people that would vote for Abbott regardless of who the Democrat is. 

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

does the below violate any sort of posting rule?

It's a bit over the top. But the point is certainly valid. Beto has certainly spooked a significant % of people who support the 2nd Amendment. Probably won't help him win.

But ya, @PoliticalPundit treat people how you would someone you're talking to face to face, please.

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Oh please. Your best friend hesita just stalked my posts and did a laughing emoticon on like 10 of them. “Not for thee but for me…”
 

not to mention Vcczar saying how “it’s like I didn’t even follow the 2016 election” which is both condescending and violating of rules by your standard. 
 

my post is totally valid and I’d say that same statement to someone’s face given the incredulousness I felt after reading the post. 
 

if we’re back to the sensitive emoticon games then there really shouldn’t be a political discussion board.. 

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8 hours ago, vcczar said:

Most Texans don't own AR-15s. Most people don't. He's not saying he's going to take 99% of the guns that Texans do own. The only people that would be spooked by that statement are people that would vote for Abbott regardless of who the Democrat is. 

It doesn’t matter what he meant by it but how it’s perceived in Texas. And if you’re saying that only Republican care and would be spooked about gun ownership in texas.. good luck doubling down on that stance. 

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1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

It doesn’t matter what he meant by it but how it’s perceived in Texas. And if you’re saying that only Republican care and would be spooked about gun ownership in texas.. good luck doubling down on that stance. 

I was born, raised, and lived in Texas as an adult. I'm 42 years old. Aside from 5 years in NYC and 4 years in Philadelphia, I've lived my entire life in TX. I probably know a lot more about the temperament of the people that you do. The only Texans that care about AR-15's enough to protect them are 1) Extremely Traditionalists Republicans and 2) Extremely partisan Republicans. 3) Independents that are gun collectors or are have more values in line with Libertarians. That said, these are all groups likely to poll voting for Abbott over O'Rourke or McConnaughy already. O'Rourke was clear to mention a specific gun that 98% of Texans don't own and don't plan on ever owning. It would be akin to someone saying they were going to raise taxes on people that own tanks or something, and then conservative construing that to mean the politician was going to go after everyone's vehicles or something. 

To be sure, it will be an early attack on O'Rourke. Thankfully early. It's an obvious attack. He will be prepared personally or by others to deflect it. Texans, both gun owners or not, will be to understand the difference between an AR-15 and sensible defensive guns. I say this as a Texan that isn't anti-gun himself. While I wish they didn't exist, the 2nd Amendment exists, and I understand the logic of them for self-defense. I'm actually waaaaay more moderate than most Democrats are on guns, possibly because I am Texan. 

For instance, if there's a shooter in a theatre, I'll be thankful when someone else with a gun can take care of that villain before he can wipe out the entire population in the room. I believe in gun control in as much as it may make it difficult to purchase guns for felons and the mentally ill, but until non-lethal weaponry catches on, I'm not going to go after most gun ownership. No one needs an AR-15. There's never an instance for it. One doesn't hunt with it. One generally uses some sort of pistol for domestic home defense. An AR-15, other than just for the sake of showing off, and for military purposes, is most often identified with domestic terrorism. O'Rourke is on the right side of the argument on this issue. He will cross the line when he start taking general home protection weaponry. 

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40 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I was born, raised, and lived in Texas as an adult. I'm 42 years old. Aside from 5 years in NYC and 4 years in Philadelphia, I've lived my entire life in TX. I probably know a lot more about the temperament of the people that you do. The only Texans that care about AR-15's enough to protect them are 1) Extremely Traditionalists Republicans and 2) Extremely partisan Republicans. 3) Independents that are gun collectors or are have more values in line with Libertarians. That said, these are all groups likely to poll voting for Abbott over O'Rourke or McConnaughy already. O'Rourke was clear to mention a specific gun that 98% of Texans don't own and don't plan on ever owning. It would be akin to someone saying they were going to raise taxes on people that own tanks or something, and then conservative construing that to mean the politician was going to go after everyone's vehicles or something. 

To be sure, it will be an early attack on O'Rourke. Thankfully early. It's an obvious attack. He will be prepared personally or by others to deflect it. Texans, both gun owners or not, will be to understand the difference between an AR-15 and sensible defensive guns. I say this as a Texan that isn't anti-gun himself. While I wish they didn't exist, the 2nd Amendment exists, and I understand the logic of them for self-defense. I'm actually waaaaay more moderate than most Democrats are on guns, possibly because I am Texan. 

For instance, if there's a shooter in a theatre, I'll be thankful when someone else with a gun can take care of that villain before he can wipe out the entire population in the room. I believe in gun control in as much as it may make it difficult to purchase guns for felons and the mentally ill, but until non-lethal weaponry catches on, I'm not going to go after most gun ownership. No one needs an AR-15. There's never an instance for it. One doesn't hunt with it. One generally uses some sort of pistol for domestic home defense. An AR-15, other than just for the sake of showing off, and for military purposes, is most often identified with domestic terrorism. O'Rourke is on the right side of the argument on this issue. He will cross the line when he start taking general home protection weaponry. 

I'm not going to devolve into this. If you think this is just an "AR 15" issue and not a general gun issue for Beto there's nothing else to say. 

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On 9/22/2021 at 6:56 AM, PoliticalPundit said:

Oh please. Your best friend hesita just stalked my posts and did a laughing emoticon on like 10 of them. “Not for thee but for me…”
 

not to mention Vcczar saying how “it’s like I didn’t even follow the 2016 election” which is both condescending and violating of rules by your standard. 
 

my post is totally valid and I’d say that same statement to someone’s face given the incredulousness I felt after reading the post. 
 

if we’re back to the sensitive emoticon games then there really shouldn’t be a political discussion board.. 

So this is why Patine is so sensitive about emotes...

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On 9/28/2021 at 1:38 PM, IndependentPerson said:

So this is why Patine is so sensitive about emotes...

I think the laughing emote should probably just go. It's heavily misused. 

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