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Notable Challengers in 2022 Midterm Elections


vcczar
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Of the following, who is the strongest challenger? Who is the most interesting challenger? Who is most likely to score an upset?

US Senate challengers

  • Kelly Tschibaka (R) for AK
  • Val Demings (D) for FL 
  • Herschel Walker (R) for GA (likely candidate)
  • Charles Booker (D) for KY
  • Don Bolduc (R) for NH
  • Cheri Beasley (D) for NC
  • Tim Ryan (D) for OH
  • John Fetterman (D) for PA
  • Mandela Barnes (D) for WI

Governor challengers

  • Charlie Crist (D) for FL
  • Jeff Colyer (R) for KS
  • Paul LePage (R) for ME
  • Tom Perez (D) for MD
  • Andrew Giuliani (R) for NY
  • Joe Cunningham (D) for SC
  • Stacey Abrams (D) for GA (likely candidate)
  • Matthew McConaughey (D) for TX (most frequently polled Democratic potential candidate)

Very interesting group. I'd add US Reps too but that's a lot harder to predict the nominees and there's a lot of them. 

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I'll rate each candidate on a 10 point scale. 10 being the likeliest victor, and then 1 being least likely.

 

US Senate challengers

  • Kelly Tschibaka (R) for AK

I give a 5. Murkowski is persona non grata in the state's GoP, but can Murkowski keep her appeal with the more moderate natives/Democrats?

  • Val Demings (D) for FL 

4. She was an impeachment manager for Trump in a state that Trump improved in, and running against the poster child for the GoP.

  • Herschel Walker (R) for GA (likely candidate)

5. I fail to see beyond being black, what is Walker's appeal. The man doesn't live within the state if I recall. Though will he be able appeal to the white moderates in Cobb County? Maybe if Walker tightropes the culture war issues.

  • Charles Booker (D) for KY

1. Its Kentucky. 

  • Don Bolduc (R) for NH

3. NH is a swingy state, but Bolduc has said some statements that could turn off voters(read what he has said about the 2020 election). 

  • Cheri Beasley (D) for NC

7. Right now Beasley is the strongest candidate on the Dem side, and if she can frame McCrory as "far-right", it can be a doable win. 

  • Tim Ryan (D) for OH

5. Ryan is a pretty good choice for Ohio on the Democratic side, but it hinges on if the GoP goes too far to the right with Vance or Mandel. 

  • John Fetterman (D) for PA

8. Fetterman has that weird personality that appeals to alot of groups. Also the GoP field is relatively weak with those who are running.

  • Mandela Barnes (D) for WI

3ish. I feel Godlewski might win if the Wisconsin party is leaning towards her, also Barnes is a black man from Milwaukee with some strong progressive views. I can see the conservative media there having a field day with that.

Governor challengers

  • Charlie Crist (D) for FL

3. Third time is the charm to win statewide.

  • Jeff Colyer (R) for KS

6. It is a midterm year, and maybe Colyer can ride that wave to the governor's mansion, regardless of how well liked Kelly is.

  • Paul LePage (R) for ME

3. Ranked choice voting might do him again.

  • Tom Perez (D) for MD

6. If i he can survive the primary he will win with his strong ties to the Obama admistration.

  • Andrew Giuliani (R) for NY

1. Hes a Republican.

  • Joe Cunningham (D) for SC

1. I voted for Cunningham twice in my district, but the upstate area(Greenville-Spartanburg) is far too conservative for a Democrat to win statewide. I can see Joe hitting 45-47%; but nothing higher.

  • Stacey Abrams (D) for GA (likely candidate)

7. I think Abrams could pull it off this year as the state has proved it can elect Democrats statewide.

  • Matthew McConaughey (D) for TX (most frequently polled Democratic potential candidate)

5. Texas is a massive state to run in, with large metro regions all over the state; and the Democratic party is still relatively disliked. Maybe an independent thats fairly wealthy is whats needed. 

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