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Trump, DeSantis Dominate CPAC Poll


jvikings1
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Trump Easily Wins CPAC Straw Poll, Again Insinuates Stolen Election in Speech (msn.com)

 

It must be pointed out that these polls have been wrong in the past, though they did give a good indication of the conservative base of the Republican Party. No surprise to see Trump having so much support, though DeSantis in the 20s even with Trump running is significant. I believe it shows how he is in a position to expand a coalition further than Trump did. And no surprise to see DeSantis dominate the without Trump poll, though the fact that no one else got double digits is significant. Right now, he has a firm lead with this group (and likely with the RP as a whole) should Trump not run.

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15 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Trump Easily Wins CPAC Straw Poll, Again Insinuates Stolen Election in Speech (msn.com)

 

It must be pointed out that these polls have been wrong in the past, though they did give a good indication of the conservative base of the Republican Party. No surprise to see Trump having so much support, though DeSantis in the 20s even with Trump running is significant. I believe it shows how he is in a position to expand a coalition further than Trump did. And no surprise to see DeSantis dominate the without Trump poll, though the fact that no one else got double digits is significant. Right now, he has a firm lead with this group (and likely with the RP as a whole) should Trump not run.

DeSantis won last month’s straw poll even with Trump in the list. 

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Regarding the Western Conservative Summit straw poll…

“Though it might have pegged the favorites of its right-leaning crowd, the polls have done a poor job of predicting eventual GOP nominees or general election winners. Restauranteur Herman Cain won the first presidential poll in 2011, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in 2012 and Cruz in 2013.

Neurosurgeon Ben Carson topped the poll in 2014 and 2015, while in 2016 summit attendees thought Trump should tap former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as his running mate, and former district attorney George Brauchler was the runaway favorite for Colorado governor in 2017.”

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A Trump DeSantis ticket with Trump ON HIS BEST BEHAVIOR is a winning ticket. 

 

It's tough to see a path though bc he'd have to be relying on people who initially voted for him, then changed their mind to once again change their mind again and vote for him. People don't like to admit they were wrong.

 

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On 7/11/2021 at 11:08 PM, PoliticalPundit said:

A Trump DeSantis ticket with Trump ON HIS BEST BEHAVIOR is a winning ticket. 

 

It's tough to see a path though bc he'd have to be relying on people who initially voted for him, then changed their mind to once again change their mind again and vote for him. People don't like to admit they were wrong.

 

Against Biden or Harris, I agree. Trump might have more difficulty against a different Democrat (though the field did disappoint this past time around).

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On 7/11/2021 at 11:08 PM, PoliticalPundit said:

A Trump DeSantis ticket with Trump ON HIS BEST BEHAVIOR is a winning ticket. 

 

It's tough to see a path though bc he'd have to be relying on people who initially voted for him, then changed their mind to once again change their mind again and vote for him. People don't like to admit they were wrong.

 

Trump didn’t lose because his voters abandoned him, he added nearly 12 million new voters. The issue is that Biden added more new voters.

Wealthy white college-educated men probably did shift away from Trump to some extent individually, but it’s just that the voter pool was larger.

It is also worth noting that 2016 third party voters broke disproportionately for Biden.

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8 hours ago, populist86 said:

Trump didn’t lose because his voters abandoned him, he added nearly 12 million new voters. The issue is that Biden added more new voters.

Wealthy white college-educated men probably did shift away from Trump to some extent individually, but it’s just that the voter pool was larger.

It is also worth noting that 2016 third party voters broke disproportionately for Biden.

Umm ehh.

Trump lost bc the college educated whites who voted for him in 2016 (or didn't vote for either) moved against him directly in 2020. 

 

I don't think 2016 3rd party voters mattered whatsoever. 

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On 7/11/2021 at 11:08 PM, PoliticalPundit said:

A Trump DeSantis ticket with Trump ON HIS BEST BEHAVIOR is a winning ticket. 

 

It's tough to see a path though bc he'd have to be relying on people who initially voted for him, then changed their mind to once again change their mind again and vote for him. People don't like to admit they were wrong.

 

Yeah there is a reason why that Nixon was the most recent major party nominee to lose an election then went on to win. Also Trump, outside of his base, is toxic. Also one thing to note is that Trump barely expanded his map. Outside of south Florida and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, Trump's performance was relatively the same from 2016. However Biden made gains in areas such as suburban Atlanta and suburban Dallas-Fort Worth. If Trump were to run again, he would just lose by a bigger margin. 

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14 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Yeah there is a reason why that Nixon was the most recent major party nominee to lose an election then went on to win. Also Trump, outside of his base, is toxic. Also one thing to note is that Trump barely expanded his map. Outside of south Florida and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, Trump's performance was relatively the same from 2016. However Biden made gains in areas such as suburban Atlanta and suburban Dallas-Fort Worth. If Trump were to run again, he would just lose by a bigger margin. 

I have a feeling Trump will dominate 2022 midterms and really consider a 2024 bid. 

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5 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I have a feeling Trump will dominate 2022 midterms and really consider a 2024 bid. 

He will be active in 2022 and confuse a midterm turnout(which will lean towards the GoP) for "the nation wanting Trump back". What I do find amazing is how there are so many Republicans clearly thirsty to be the nominee but lack the sheer ability to challenge Trump headon and have to wait till Trump finally enters the race. Pretty funny, that so many are hitching their careers on a man who clearly cares little about them....

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Obviously there are a lot of caveats since our current landscape is less predictable (plus, you know, gerrymandering and voter suppression,) but I feel like DeSantis is peaking early. He's become so toxic to anyone outside of the GOP / Covid "truther" base and alienated enough people to be a hindrance eventually, even if it gives him an opportunity to puff his chest out now. Being a public enemy means he'll face far more scrutiny and have more eyes on him, especially with a re-election bid coming up. If he under-performs, or even loses, that would really knock him off his perch right before a primary cycle begins. Beyond just that, being the focus point now in 2021 means that there will be time for almost two full years before a primary cycle for him to misstep. Especially with his dependence on the base, he could say one even marginally negative thing about Trump and turn supporters against him.

Anyway, I really think that when there's a large primary field with one central favorite (Trump,) you don't want to peak until right around time to vote. I think we saw a similar pattern in the 2020 Dem primary, to a lesser extent. Biden was the favorite, and whenever someone was polling high, eventually the news cycle would shift. Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, even Sanders to an extent, all had that. That's just my personal theory, though.

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36 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

Obviously there are a lot of caveats since our current landscape is less predictable (plus, you know, gerrymandering and voter suppression,) but I feel like DeSantis is peaking early. He's become so toxic to anyone outside of the GOP / Covid "truther" base and alienated enough people to be a hindrance eventually, even if it gives him an opportunity to puff his chest out now. Being a public enemy means he'll face far more scrutiny and have more eyes on him, especially with a re-election bid coming up. If he under-performs, or even loses, that would really knock him off his perch right before a primary cycle begins. Beyond just that, being the focus point now in 2021 means that there will be time for almost two full years before a primary cycle for him to misstep. Especially with his dependence on the base, he could say one even marginally negative thing about Trump and turn supporters against him.

Anyway, I really think that when there's a large primary field with one central favorite (Trump,) you don't want to peak until right around time to vote. I think we saw a similar pattern in the 2020 Dem primary, to a lesser extent. Biden was the favorite, and whenever someone was polling high, eventually the news cycle would shift. Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, even Sanders to an extent, all had that. That's just my personal theory, though.

Case in point Scott Walker. 

Yeah like I am not denying the 22 midterms won't be good for the GoP, but I sense that Trump will confuse normal political trends with "The nation wanting HIM"

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9 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

He will be active in 2022 and confuse a midterm turnout(which will lean towards the GoP) for "the nation wanting Trump back". What I do find amazing is how there are so many Republicans clearly thirsty to be the nominee but lack the sheer ability to challenge Trump headon and have to wait till Trump finally enters the race. Pretty funny, that so many are hitching their careers on a man who clearly cares little about them....

Bc if you go against trump and somehow win the GOP nomination you have a 0 chance of winning w trump telling his base not to vote for them

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