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Could a Never Trump 3rd Party Form?


vcczar
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Apparently at least 100 Republicans have threatened to form a new party over Liz Cheney being "canceled" in the US House. Obviously, I'll be elated if this occurs, since it would likely lead to a huge Democratic gains, even if the Democrats don't deserve it. 

In the event that such a party is made, and in the event that they drain somewhere between 5-10% of the popular vote nationwide, a Biden vs. Trump reelection would likely look like this. The new third party would not win any states, but they would put Biden over the top in states he could not otherwise win on merit: 

nXGBk.png

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Just read some of them, a who's who of NeverTrumpers. These people did not vote Republican in 2020.

Assuming 100% of the 100 didn't vote for Trump in 2020, and assuming whoever votes for them didn't vote for Trump in 2020, it's undeniable that GOP voters and Independents that voted 3rd party, stayed at home, or voted Biden, helped make Trump a one-term president. He has to expand his tent, not restrict it. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

assuming whoever votes for them didn't vote for Trump in 2020

Ya, this is the big question. If they were to form a national party and get on various ballots, how many votes would they get that otherwise would go the the Republican candidate. But forming a viable national party is tough.

Another option is the McMullin strategy (target a few key states).

You seem to be forgetting that Biden just squeaked in. Very small shifts in 2 or 3 states (such as from more restrictions on mail in voting) and the Presidency would have gone to Trump again.

But yes, of course the Republicans want to expand their number of voters - but IMO trying to win back NeverTrumpers is probably the wrong approach.

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Im so confused where this is coming from since Trump exceeded expectations in the 2020 election with Republicans and bringing new voters into the party. 

 

 

This sounds like it's from 2016 no disrespect 

 

5-10%??? There's a better chance of progressives in 2024 voting third party if they are mad at Biden than this happening. 

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7 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump exceeded expectations in the 2020 election with Republicans and bringing new voters into the party

Do you have data to support this? Where are these new voters coming from and do they outnumber Trump-to-Biden voters (i.e. Regret-a-Trumps)?

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Do you have data to support this? Where are these new voters coming from and do they outnumber Trump-to-Biden voters (i.e. Regret-a-Trumps)?

not to mention his increase of minority voters by percentage for a republican. Look at the exit polling portion from Wiki.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

Do you have data to support this? Where are these new voters coming from and do they outnumber Trump-to-Biden voters (i.e. Regret-a-Trumps)?

come on man...

Let’s start with gender: across racial and ethnic groups, women shifted towards Trump this cycle. In the last election, Trump won white women by a margin of 9 percentage points. This year, he won by 11 percentage points. In 2016, Democrats won Hispanic and Latina women by 44 percentage points; in 2020 they won by 39. Last cycle, Democrats won black women by 90 percentage points. This year, by 81 points. That is, in a year when a black woman was on a major party ticket for the first time in US history, the margin between Democrats and Republicans among black women shifted 9 percentage points in the other direction – towards Trump. 

 

Trump saw comparable gains with Black and Hispanic men as well. 

Overall, comparing 2016 and 2020, Trump gained 4 percentage points with African Americans, 3 percentage points with Hispanics and Latinos, and 5 percentage points with Asian Americans. The shifts described in Edison’s exit polls are verified by AP Votecast, which showed similar movement among black and Hispanic voters this cycle.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

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12 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

come on man...

Let’s start with gender: across racial and ethnic groups, women shifted towards Trump this cycle. In the last election, Trump won white women by a margin of 9 percentage points. This year, he won by 11 percentage points. In 2016, Democrats won Hispanic and Latina women by 44 percentage points; in 2020 they won by 39. Last cycle, Democrats won black women by 90 percentage points. This year, by 81 points. That is, in a year when a black woman was on a major party ticket for the first time in US history, the margin between Democrats and Republicans among black women shifted 9 percentage points in the other direction – towards Trump. 

 

Trump saw comparable gains with Black and Hispanic men as well. 

Overall, comparing 2016 and 2020, Trump gained 4 percentage points with African Americans, 3 percentage points with Hispanics and Latinos, and 5 percentage points with Asian Americans. The shifts described in Edison’s exit polls are verified by AP Votecast, which showed similar movement among black and Hispanic voters this cycle.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

I appreciate you providing this data, and this does prove your argument that he brought in new voters. Now, which demographics did Trump's margin decrease? That's important too, considering Trump's lost by over twice the PV margin to Biden in 2020 than he did to Clinton in 2016. Which voters did he lose/which new voters did Biden bring in? I kind of don't expect you to show me this data since it goes against your Pro-Trump philosophy, but perhaps you'll surprise me. 

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26 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

@vcczar My guess is Biden would have lost the election if not for the mail in changes. So comparing 2020 to any other election (such as the vote totals - way higher than 2020 on both sides) is in my opinion questionable.

I understand the argument or reason to scrutinize mail in changes, but I don't think mail in changes did anything significant to get people to vote who would not have voted in 2020 if voting was done in person. I think those that voted likely would have voted any way had this been a non-pandemic election. I do think that had mail in changes not been made, it would have restricted the vote of those who would have voted in a non-pandemic election, but because of their age or pre-existing condition could not risk catching Covid while waiting in line. 

52 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

Extremely important. He lost support among whites, and white males in particular.

And especially independents, who swung strongly to Biden. This was the demographic that swung away from Clinton and the Democrats in 2016 to Trump. I think this is mainly "regret-a-Trumps," but I don't know what % are Trump-to-Biden voters. I haven't seen that figure. There was also a 4% drop in support among Evangelicals for Trump. 

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55 minutes ago, vcczar said:

"regret-a-Trumps,"

Ya, I like this phrase. People who were tired of the constant shit-show, wanted Trump to dial things back a bit, stop going after ever dog who barked at him, and so on.

It's not NeverTrumpers that really matter going forward, it's Regret-a-Trumpers. Can the GOP get those back?

But on the issue of voter numbers, you had Trump 63 M -> 74 M and Clinton 66 M -> Biden 81 M. (For comparison, Obama in 2008 only got 69.5 M!) This is a massive increase on both sides for turnout. I have a hard time believing 'negative partisanship' or whatever alone caused this. A significant part of this was that it was easier to vote. I know, not a fancy theory from a Political Science Ph.D., but a lot of people don't vote because it's a bit of a pain - mail them a card and make it easy, and you increase the likelihood.

 

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

but a lot of people don't vote because it's a bit of a pain - mail them a card and make it easy, and you increase the likelihood.

Maybe, but I don't think there were many people who voted just because they got a card in the mail. You had to sign on a website and ask for the ballot, then you got the ballot, then you had to fill out the ballot, put it in the right envelope, put that one in the right envelope, and then drive off and drop it off in a drop box. I think anyone too lazy or finds voting a pain wouldn't even go through that process. 

I was a little shocked the my oldest friend (not the Trump supporter friend I bring up occasionally) didn't vote at all. He watches the news, hates Trump with a passion--as most liberals do--but he couldn't motivate himself to sign up for a ballot for him and his girlfriend online. I reminded him several times. He ultimately decided that it didn't matter because he lived in Texas. 

I am yet to hear of anyone that voted in 2020 because of mail in ballot. That is, those who said they wouldn't have voted at all if they had to go to a physical poll. Doesn't mean they exist, but I think the cases were probably too few to have any influence on the election. I think turn out was high for this reason: Democrats and Anti-Trumpers had the exciting opportunity to make Trump a one-term president--the biggest humiliation they could hand him, and Trump's number increased because he was able to mobilize his hoard of supporters, both his 2016 supporters and new convert in an effort to stop his defeat. The opposing army was just larger. 

I really think COVID was a leading actor in the election. I think if both old men had to campaign like it was a normal campaign, Trump would come off as probably more vigorous at the end, and the economy would not have sunk into a COVID recession. Instead, the economy was receding, Trump mishandled Covid (mostly rhetorically), and his catching COVID didn't help matters much. Biden had the luxury of conserving his energy and hide his age under the guise of being wise grandfather Joe, promoting precaution. 

The combination of a COVID-caused recession, pandemic fears, and a growing swell of anti-Trump supporters (with regret-a-Trump's probably being decisive) allowed a challenger to defeat an incumbent without even need to physically campaign. I think 1896 or 1900 was the last election in which the victor won without really campaigning and the loser was the one actively campaigning. Both of these elections were McKinley vs. Bryan. I'm not sure if McKinley campaigned in 1900 though. It would be a different situation since in 1896, neither were incumbents, and in 1900 McKinley was the incumbent.

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31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Maybe, but I don't think there were many people who voted just because they got a card in the mail. You had to sign on a website and ask for the ballot, then you got the ballot, then you had to fill out the ballot, put it in the right envelope, put that one in the right envelope, and then drive off and drop it off in a drop box. I think anyone too lazy or finds voting a pain wouldn't even go through that process. 

I was a little shocked the my oldest friend (not the Trump supporter friend I bring up occasionally) didn't vote at all. He watches the news, hates Trump with a passion--as most liberals do--but he couldn't motivate himself to sign up for a ballot for him and his girlfriend online. I reminded him several times. He ultimately decided that it didn't matter because he lived in Texas. 

I am yet to hear of anyone that voted in 2020 because of mail in ballot. That is, those who said they wouldn't have voted at all if they had to go to a physical poll. Doesn't mean they exist, but I think the cases were probably too few to have any influence on the election. I think turn out was high for this reason: Democrats and Anti-Trumpers had the exciting opportunity to make Trump a one-term president--the biggest humiliation they could hand him, and Trump's number increased because he was able to mobilize his hoard of supporters, both his 2016 supporters and new convert in an effort to stop his defeat. The opposing army was just larger. 

I really think COVID was a leading actor in the election. I think if both old men had to campaign like it was a normal campaign, Trump would come off as probably more vigorous at the end, and the economy would not have sunk into a COVID recession. Instead, the economy was receding, Trump mishandled Covid (mostly rhetorically), and his catching COVID didn't help matters much. Biden had the luxury of conserving his energy and hide his age under the guise of being wise grandfather Joe, promoting precaution. 

The combination of a COVID-caused recession, pandemic fears, and a growing swell of anti-Trump supporters (with regret-a-Trump's probably being decisive) allowed a challenger to defeat an incumbent without even need to physically campaign. I think 1896 or 1900 was the last election in which the victor won without really campaigning and the loser was the one actively campaigning. Both of these elections were McKinley vs. Bryan. I'm not sure if McKinley campaigned in 1900 though. It would be a different situation since in 1896, neither were incumbents, and in 1900 McKinley was the incumbent.

Trump totally mismanaged COVID and STILL did way better than pollsters, mainstream media thought he would. Did you notice how disappointed most of the media was with the margin of the victory for Biden? They wanted a full repudiation of Trump, and they didn't come close to it.

 

Mail in voting and corruption was a massive factor in the election (and COVID). I'd wait till 2022 to jump to any conclusions regarding Trump's power and base still. Not sure what you're reading that suggests his power is slipping in any way shape or form. 

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13 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump totally mismanaged COVID and STILL did way better than pollsters, mainstream media thought he would. Did you notice how disappointed most of the media was with the margin of the victory for Biden? They wanted a full repudiation of Trump, and they didn't come close to it.

 

Mail in voting and corruption was a massive factor in the election (and COVID). I'd wait till 2022 to jump to any conclusions regarding Trump's power and base still. Not sure what you're reading that suggests his power is slipping in any way shape or form. 

Don’t agree regarding corruption and mail in voting but that’s okay. 
 

Oh, you either ignored or didn’t see my response to the data you provided regarding demographics and margins.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I am yet to hear of anyone that voted in 2020 because of mail in ballot.

I'm not certain most people would say this if it were the case. Most people wouldn't know, and even if they did know, probably wouldn't say that to others.

I recommend this article as an overview of mail in and 2020.

https://spectator.org/mail-in-voting-2020-election/

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47 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Don’t agree regarding corruption and mail in voting but that’s okay. 
 

Oh, you either ignored or didn’t see my response to the data you provided regarding demographics and margins.

he lost white voters (esp college educated), no surprise given he was up against biden.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-election-swing-state-biden-trump-coalition/?srnd=election-2020&sref=0IejgNtz

White people supported Biden by 4.4 more points than they did Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the latest available vote counts from the Associated Press. Those gains were especially pronounced in battleground states, including longtime Republican strongholds Arizona and Georgia, that Biden appears to have reclaimed for the Democratic Party.

 

By contrast, Trump made gains in rural counties with large shares of non-college-educated White people. 

In swing-state counties with a majority of college-educated White people, Trump’s average margin of victory shrank by 1.8 points, a big change from 2016, when he boosted the margin for Republicans by a staggering 12 points in those areas.

Though nearly half of majority-White counties moved away from Trump this year, the Republican party could win those voters back if they put forward more a more traditional conservative standard bearer who also embraces fewer regulations and more tax cuts, according to Stewart.

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No COVID and Biden continues to spend spend spend and he'll be in better shape. You can't tell me Trump would have lost the election 

had Covid not happened, no shot. 

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8 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

No COVID and Biden continues to spend spend spend and he'll be in better shape. You can't tell me Trump would have lost the election 

had Covid not happened, no shot. 

I think this is a distinct possibility for sure. You’ll notice in my conversation with Anthony that Covid was a leading factor in Trump’s defeat. I wouldn’t necessarily say, no shot, as we don’t know how things would have developed if both candidates were actively campaigning, instead of just Trump campaigning. Certainly, Trump could have been in a better position and could have won, but I wouldn’t write off Biden, considering 1) most likely voters were going to vote for or against Trump the same way regardless of voters. I doubt few decided to vote against Trump because of Covid, although there’s probably some of them. 2) Trump’s average approval couldn’t get beyond 45%. Biden, by comparison gets higher marks today, even by conservative pollster Rasmussen. I’m inclined to think that Trump would have won AZ and GA without COVID. WI would be a lot closer. Biden would probably still win PA and MI. 
 

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On 5/13/2021 at 6:10 PM, vcczar said:

Do you have data to support this? Where are these new voters coming from and do they outnumber Trump-to-Biden voters (i.e. Regret-a-Trumps)?

IIRC, some of the support Trump gained (especially in Florida) was from somewhat conservative Hispanic voters who were skeptical of Trump and voted for Clinton (or third party).

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