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New polls feature


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The next major change to the game will probably be replacing the current polling system

(Note: these are the in-game polls, not poll %s put into the Editor.)

Currently, public poll numbers are created once per week (specified by the campaign), and are for every region.

There are then 2 kinds of polls, general election and primaries.

Each party has a public primaries poll created once per week for every region.

Each player can then start polling in a region, and this is a private poll. The private poll's accuracy is determined by the player's Polling attribute. These numbers are updated daily instead of weekly.

Instead of this

I want to capture the cut and thrust of public polling and the fog-of-war conditions that often occur. There is significant desert-like conditions for certain regions (months without public polls being released for that region) and deluges for others (large numbers being released in a short time). Certain pollsters have agendas. Certain polls are higher quality than others - or are they? Some pollsters might get certain regions right and be hopeless in others.

Each campaign, meanwhile, has internal polling that is usually higher quality. However, campaigns with fewer resources might actually rely on public polling.

I am imagining the new polls as 'cards' - each one pops up with a pollster name, sample size, MoE, a bias rating, a grade rating, dates covered by poll (usually, they run over several days).

Some polls are tracking polls.

Players can either create a typical poll or a tracking poll. Players can release internal poll data to drive a news cycle.

 

 

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I'm thinking public polls should come in any day of the week, not tied to one day per week. This keeps players on their toes. Often, game play feels like you're just waiting for the next Monday (or whenever).

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24 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

Which polling sites did you guys keep tabs on during the 2020 election?

As you know, I kept up with every poll on 538, which included every poll RCP kept up with. Using this information was was able to predict the EC map with almost 100% accuracy. My only miss was ME-2: https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Which polling sites did you guys keep tabs on during the 2020 election?

I'd love to see Nate Silver's ridiculous polling metric somehow added to the game where no matter what, "Nate was right!". In every swing state but Arizona, Trump outperformed the 538 polling averages. 

 

The main result of the new polling should ideally be a "Liberal" poll, a "mainstream" poll (that leans liberal obviously) and a "conservative" poll.. and as we've seen the last 2 elections, the end results end up leaning conservative no matter the victor. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

As you know, I kept up with every poll on 538, which included every poll RCP kept up with. Using this information was was able to predict the EC map with almost 100% accuracy. My only miss was ME-2: https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/

 

when the most liberal sites on the internet are bashing Nate Silver, you know there are issues. Don't be fooled by his, "Well I had Trump winning at 10% compared to others who had him at 5%" bullshit. He's a total snake oil salesman. 

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Real Clear Politics, the base of Poll Aggregation, was my go-to source. But honestly I'd also add a Gallup-style "Presidential Approval" poll would be a great addition. So if it's 2008, these Approval Polls (if increasingly negative) would add negative momentum nationally to Republicans (generic). The same could go for 2016 and even 2020. However I don't know how you'd implement such a feature. I'd imagine it's insanely difficult.

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27 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I'd love to see Nate Silver's ridiculous polling metric somehow added to the game where no matter what, "Nate was right!"

Could be a little in-game joke headline - "Nate Silver says he's correct in election prediction, no matter what the outcome!" 😉

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39 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/

 

when the most liberal sites on the internet are bashing Nate Silver, you know there are issues. Don't be fooled by his, "Well I had Trump winning at 10% compared to others who had him at 5%" bullshit. He's a total snake oil salesman. 

You tagged my mention of 538. I should clarify that I used the polls he used, but I did not use his method for projecting the election. Mine was more pessimistic of his projection, included other factors, and was more accurate than his. Also, mine was a prediction, and his was a projection. I only missed ME-2. 

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

but I did not use his method for projecting the election. Mine was more pessimistic of his projection, included other factors, and was more accurate than his.

Well done! Yes, I thought you were being pretty realistic in the run up to election day, trying to balance out your own biases.

Interesting that you were able to beat Silver simply by being a bit more pessimistic about the liberal candidate's chances ...

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3 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

As with 2016, RCP was more accurate in their national %s. 538 Biden +8.4, RCP Biden +7.2. Actual outcome Biden +4.4.

Even RCP was off in some polls though. Peters was up by 4-7 points aggregated the week before the election, but I think that this is because of the historically bad quality of so many polls that were thrown in. I saw polls that had Peters up by 7+ points per week, something completely wrong.

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42 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

Well done! Yes, I thought you were being pretty realistic in the run up to election day, trying to balance out your own biases.

Interesting that you were able to beat Silver simply by being a bit more pessimistic about the liberal candidate's chances ...

It was a little more than just that, but my algorithm had a lot of catches that favored Republicans and, therefore, weakened the projection of polling. 

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If the media was fair to Trump and didn't act like he was going to lose in a blowout (again), he would have won. It's that simple. 

 

Let me point to the 90% of mainstream articles that laughed, mocked and scolded him for saying a vaccine was coming in 2020.

And then somehow 3 days after the election they announce a vaccine was being made available? What a coincidence. 

 

The game should reflect how biased the media is and how off polls were... again. If he doesn't run in 2024 we'll see if it was just a Trump issue (in which case it should only play a factor in 2020-2016) or not 

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18 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

538 but maybe because I’m use it more

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

538 but maybe because I’m use it more

Ya, 538 definitely looks nicer to me - more polished. But they're both basically just a graph you can mouse over to see the % at a particular point in time and then a list of polls with MoE and so on.

538 has grades for each poll, which I think will be part of the new polls feature. I don't think A+ to F will be used, perhaps something like 0-10 which translates directly into a weighting for the average.

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