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2024 Scenario attributes proposal


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This goes both ways though. A lot of the Obama-Trump voters (90%+) stuck with Trump in part because of his less multilateral foreign policy, lack of personal conservatism, and support for deficit spen

I'll post since it all seems quiet and harmonious.  This is my proposal for the candidate attributes for a 2024 scenario. I may make this scenario myself, but it will have to be after the current

Trump platform + dial back the rhetoric a bit + stop getting in incessant fights with everyone = higher ceiling, IMHO.

56 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

I'm referring here to bell-weather counties. But the contrast between FL and MI is interesting, too.

The same probably applies to the bellwether counties, for the most part. 

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1 hour ago, Anthony_270 said:

Murkowski officially censured by Alaska GOP.

 

1 hour ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

I don't think that'll hurt her too much. But then again that's just my opinion. 

Yeah, the state has more independents than registered Dems and Reps combined, I think. Several GOP politicians have been censured for showing independence from Trump. I think the censures might carry some weight in a primary. However, if the censured incumbent wins the primary (most likely case, considering successful incumbency rate), and moves on to the general, then the censure might help Democrats if it decreases GOP turnout, although I doubt the censure has any effect one way or the other. 

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Regarding the censure and the GOP reactions to politicians like Kasich, Flake, Corker, Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Hogan, and other moderates or NeverTrumpers, once can look to history for an analogy: the decline of the Rockefeller Republican. 

These Republicans are named for Nelson Rockefeller, a liberal Republican governor of NY, but they arrive with the New Deal with Wilkie and Dewey, both who predate Rockefeller's entrance into politics. The New Deal was so popular nationally that these Republicans embraced it and promised to make it more efficient. These Republicans also favored Civil Rights and internationalism. 

These Republicans died out, not because they were unpopular, but because Southern Democrats were beginning to migrate to the Republican Party starting in 1964. Many Northern Republicans liked Northern Democrats, but wouldn't vote for a party that was arguably 1/3 or 1/4 segregationists and White Supremacists. Once the nefarious faction was pulling out, many voters in the Northeast found the Democratic Party palatable. 

Goldwater and Reagan would not have won their nominations had the 1964 Civil Rights Act and other Great Society legislation been proposed and passed. The got there because the parties were resorting themselves. The 1980 election was a death knell to the Rockefeller Republicans. Strangely, GHW Bush was the candidate for the Rockefeller Republicans. While Texas was his official residence, he was born in CT and lived much of the time in ME. His father was a Senator for CT. Bush was ideologically obscure and ran to the left of Reagan. Once Reagan won the nomination and selected Bush as VP, John B Anderson ran as an Independent-- but really as a Rockefeller Republican 3rd party. Many of Anderson's supporters moved to the Democrats. Anderson would later vote Democrat. 

I think we are going through a similar process now with the parties resorting. What will determine if this is true is if these Never-Trumper/Biden Republicans vote Democrat or 3rd party in 2024 under any of these conditions:

1. Trump is the nominee.

2. The GOP nominee is not Trump but had been supportive of Trump during Trump's presidency. 

3. The GOP nominee is not Trump and neither was seen as supportive or opposed to Trump during Trump's presidency. 

4. The GOP nominee, while not vocally opposed to Trump during Trump's presidency, is mostly trying to shift the party away from him. 

I think only a Never Trump would get some of these voters and politicians back, but I think Trump permanently changed the GOP.  

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This goes both ways though. A lot of the Obama-Trump voters (90%+) stuck with Trump in part because of his less multilateral foreign policy, lack of personal conservatism, and support for deficit spending.

12 Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump counties flipped to Biden.

8 Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Clinton counties flipped to Trump 

Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump-Biden Counties:
Pueblo, CO
Kennebec, ME
Saginaw, MI
Winona, MN
Glouchester, NJ
Broome, NY
Rensselaer, NY
Mongomery, OH
Erie, PA
Northampton, PA
Kent, RI
Sauk, WI

Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Clinton-Trump Counties:
Scotland, NC
Lorain, OH
Mahoning, OH
Clarendon, SC
Dillon, SC
Jim Wells, TX
La Salle, TX
Zapata, TX

There were also 88 Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump Counties.

If Trump or a similar candidate (Hawley, DeSantis, Carlson, Don Jr., etc.) runs they will retain much of this group. A Haley, Rubio, Crenshaw, or even Pence type would probably struggle greatly and an electoral college blowout would be in play.

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36 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Regarding the censure and the GOP reactions to politicians like Kasich, Flake, Corker, Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Hogan, and other moderates or NeverTrumpers, once can look to history for an analogy: the decline of the Rockefeller Republican. 

These Republicans are named for Nelson Rockefeller, a liberal Republican governor of NY, but they arrive with the New Deal with Wilkie and Dewey, both who predate Rockefeller's entrance into politics. The New Deal was so popular nationally that these Republicans embraced it and promised to make it more efficient. These Republicans also favored Civil Rights and internationalism. 

These Republicans died out, not because they were unpopular, but because Southern Democrats were beginning to migrate to the Republican Party starting in 1964. Many Northern Republicans liked Northern Democrats, but wouldn't vote for a party that was arguably 1/3 or 1/4 segregationists and White Supremacists. Once the nefarious faction was pulling out, many voters in the Northeast found the Democratic Party palatable. 

Goldwater and Reagan would not have won their nominations had the 1964 Civil Rights Act and other Great Society legislation been proposed and passed. The got there because the parties were resorting themselves. The 1980 election was a death knell to the Rockefeller Republicans. Strangely, GHW Bush was the candidate for the Rockefeller Republicans. While Texas was his official residence, he was born in CT and lived much of the time in ME. His father was a Senator for CT. Bush was ideologically obscure and ran to the left of Reagan. Once Reagan won the nomination and selected Bush as VP, John B Anderson ran as an Independent-- but really as a Rockefeller Republican 3rd party. Many of Anderson's supporters moved to the Democrats. Anderson would later vote Democrat. 

I think we are going through a similar process now with the parties resorting. What will determine if this is true is if these Never-Trumper/Biden Republicans vote Democrat or 3rd party in 2024 under any of these conditions:

1. Trump is the nominee.

2. The GOP nominee is not Trump but had been supportive of Trump during Trump's presidency. 

3. The GOP nominee is not Trump and neither was seen as supportive or opposed to Trump during Trump's presidency. 

4. The GOP nominee, while not vocally opposed to Trump during Trump's presidency, is mostly trying to shift the party away from him. 

I think only a Never Trump would get some of these voters and politicians back, but I think Trump permanently changed the GOP.  

Interesting historical analysis. At this point, I would say the most likely outcomes for 2024 in order of likelihood for the GOP are

1. Trump is nominee.

2. Someone ideologically similar to Trump is the nominee.

3. Someone somewhat ideologically similar to Trump is the nominee.

I have a hard time seeing NeverTrumpers back in the GOP under any of these circumstances. What they required was a 2020 repudiation of Trump. Instead, they got a) Biden winning by the skin of his teeth, b) amid a backdrop of various accusations of fraud and unconstitutional election law changes, while c) Trump remains popular at this point within the GOP.

Of course, this picture could change. The biggest question mark to me is Trump's health, his actions re the 2022 mid-terms, and the popularity of whoever is the incumbent come mid-late 2023.

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wait, what? The nominee in 2024 is either Trump or someone ideologically identical to Trump if he ends up deciding not to run.

 

Trump IS the GOP for at least the next 4 years. How can anyone look at the results from 2020 and not see what the people said???

 

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To be clear regarding my analysis above, I wasn’t suggesting Trump or Trump-adjacent candidates have a high ceiling. That’s yet to be determined and I lean toward that not being the case (and I say this as a two-time Trump voter). However Trump had an extremely high floor and it’s reasonable to assume similar candidates will as well.

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14 minutes ago, populist86 said:

To be clear regarding my analysis above, I wasn’t suggesting Trump or Trump-adjacent candidates have a high ceiling. That’s yet to be determined and I lean toward that not being the case (and I say this as a two-time Trump voter). However Trump had an extremely high floor and it’s reasonable to assume similar candidates will as well.

Trump platform + dial back the rhetoric a bit + stop getting in incessant fights with everyone = higher ceiling, IMHO.

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Not to mention Biden is practically ignoring the border (an issue Trump easily wins against anyone on) and is going to attempt to raise taxes during a pandemic. Seriously?! 

This all sounds ok and fine now, but 4 years from now (let alone 2) there are a lot of very easy talking points to debate against an 84 year old. 

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A Trump-led Apprentice-like series of debates, where each show 1 or 2 nominees is vote 'off' by national GOP membership would be way better than the way debates and primaries currently work.

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2 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

Trump platform + dial back the rhetoric a bit + stop getting in incessant fights with everyone = higher ceiling, IMHO.

Yeah, I'd agree with that with one possible issue: What if parts of Trump's platform were accepted more so because they were coming from a bold, confident Trump but would otherwise not find as much success. I think anyone else using Trump's platform might have a harder time selling it authentically as Trump could. I do think dialing the rhetoric back will help, but how many Trump supporters are energized by that rhetoric? 

I'm not disagree with what you are saying, but I'm just trying to build a case that it might become a reverse of that. My best friend is a Trump supporter--red hat conspiracy theorist type--and he'd probably be disappointed if Trump's heir isn't like Trump. However, he'd probably be equally put off if Trump's heir can't authentically act like Trump. I think he'd most want Trump Jr. However, he already told me he's never going to vote again after 2020. He thinks elections will always be rigged against Trump-types. However, my friend might be an exception to most Trump supporters. My friend thinks Pence should be imprisoned for some reason that I don't understand. He also thinks all Never Trump Republicans and Democrats are part of some sort of child pornography ring. Etc, etc, etc. I think people like my friend want the rhetoric and the fighting. 

Just to explain why I'm friends with him, he and I were roommates from 2001-2003; and 2013-2014. In 2001-2003, he was non-religious, not very political, and was probably even more left-wing than I was at the time. I will say he was always very populist and wanted to blow up politics more than reform it. By 2013, he was into Alex Jones conspiracy theories, but disliked Republicans more than Democrats still, mostly because of Bush II's foreign policy. He was socially liberal, but was anti-abortion and pro-guns. He moved in with his parents in 2014 and become increasingly religious, increasing drug-addicted (never had an issue before), become pro-Cop (he used to dislike cops), pro-Military (used to dislike military people), and quickly supported Trump, while initially disliking all other Republicans. Once Trump became president, he started liking other Republicans. He still liked some Democrats, including Biden through the Dem primary, but once Biden was the nominee, Biden became "the spawn of Satan." It's just odd to me. Oh, he also lists Trump before God in his list of things he supports. Overall, I find it really depressing. It's like seeing a loved one get dementia or something. We don't talk about politics just so we can maintain a friendship, but I see things he posts/reposts on the internet regularly. People like my friend, I think, are looking for some sort of savior type who will boldly announce, "I alone can fix it." They require a Trump replacing a Trump or they won't vote. In fact, I think my friend only voted in 2016 and 2020, and he's 45 years old. 

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10 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

If I were a Republican, I would want a large, robust, but friendly primaries competition. Get 10 of your top prospects out there, figure out who's going to be best for 2024.

I don't know if "friendly" will be possible. Who would be their 10 best prospects if one could pick anyone, regardless if they have a chance at winning the primaries? 

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29 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I'd agree with that with one possible issue: What if parts of Trump's platform were accepted more so because they were coming from a bold, confident Trump but would otherwise not find as much success. I think anyone else using Trump's platform might have a harder time selling it authentically as Trump could. I do think dialing the rhetoric back will help, but how many Trump supporters are energized by that rhetoric? 

I'm not disagree with what you are saying, but I'm just trying to build a case that it might become a reverse of that. My best friend is a Trump supporter--red hat conspiracy theorist type--and he'd probably be disappointed if Trump's heir isn't like Trump. However, he'd probably be equally put off if Trump's heir can't authentically act like Trump. I think he'd most want Trump Jr. However, he already told me he's never going to vote again after 2020. He thinks elections will always be rigged against Trump-types. However, my friend might be an exception to most Trump supporters. My friend thinks Pence should be imprisoned for some reason that I don't understand. He also thinks all Never Trump Republicans and Democrats are part of some sort of child pornography ring. Etc, etc, etc. I think people like my friend want the rhetoric and the fighting. 

Just to explain why I'm friends with him, he and I were roommates from 2001-2003; and 2013-2014. In 2001-2003, he was non-religious, not very political, and was probably even more left-wing than I was at the time. I will say he was always very populist and wanted to blow up politics more than reform it. By 2013, he was into Alex Jones conspiracy theories, but disliked Republicans more than Democrats still, mostly because of Bush II's foreign policy. He was socially liberal, but was anti-abortion and pro-guns. He moved in with his parents in 2014 and become increasingly religious, increasing drug-addicted (never had an issue before), become pro-Cop (he used to dislike cops), pro-Military (used to dislike military people), and quickly supported Trump, while initially disliking all other Republicans. Once Trump became president, he started liking other Republicans. He still liked some Democrats, including Biden through the Dem primary, but once Biden was the nominee, Biden became "the spawn of Satan." It's just odd to me. Oh, he also lists Trump before God in his list of things he supports. Overall, I find it really depressing. It's like seeing a loved one get dementia or something. We don't talk about politics just so we can maintain a friendship, but I see things he posts/reposts on the internet regularly. People like my friend, I think, are looking for some sort of savior type who will boldly announce, "I alone can fix it." They require a Trump replacing a Trump or they won't vote. In fact, I think my friend only voted in 2016 and 2020, and he's 45 years old. 

Its really the opposite. Anyone with Trump's platform and beliefs (minus all the blustering and narcissism) would have destroyed Biden in a blowout. His only platform error was his handling of COVID 19 (a major error obviously). People were looking for normalcy and calm after 4 chaotic years of tweeting and division. Put that platform on a Rubio and it's not close. 

 

Yes Trump is charismatic, but your friend seems to have some very outlandish views that are in the very 1-2% of Trump supporter. Pence imprisoned? No. Biden spawn of Satan? That's some very alt right thinking. 

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33 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

A Trump-led Apprentice-like series of debates, where each show 1 or 2 nominees is vote 'off' by national GOP membership would be way better than the way debates and primaries currently work.

This 100%. 

 

Call me crazy but I can easily see Trump pulling this and hosting it on OAN or something instead of running and he gets everything he wants in 2024 minus having to govern. 

 

He wouldn't even have to vote people off weekly, but a series of 4-5 Trump hosted debates would be sensational tv. 

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40 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Its really the opposite. Anyone with Trump's platform and beliefs (minus all the blustering and narcissism) would have destroyed Biden in a blowout. His only platform error was his handling of COVID 19 (a major error obviously). People were looking for normalcy and calm after 4 chaotic years of tweeting and division. Put that platform on a Rubio and it's not close. 

 

Yes Trump is charismatic, but your friend seems to have some very outlandish views that are in the very 1-2% of Trump supporter. Pence imprisoned? No. Biden spawn of Satan? That's some very alt right thinking. 

I'm glad you aren't as extreme. I think I probably over-inflate how many of Trump supporters are Alt-Right because of my friend. 

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12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm glad you aren't as extreme. I think I probably over-inflate how many of Trump supporters are Alt-Right because of my friend. 

Probably. A lot of people do (including the media) which is why the country is so divided today. It's unfortunate.

 

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22 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Probably. A lot of people do (including the media) which is why the country is so divided today. It's unfortunate.

 

Yeah, I'm probably sure a lot of Trump supporters overinflate the number of Democrats that have "antifa (anti-fascists)" tendencies or are "Alt-Left" as Trump called them. Although, I don't think "antifa (anti-fascists)" is an actual group in the way QAnon is. It's more of a label applied to a diverse group of protesters, of which only a small minority encourage violence. I'm also sure most QAnon people don't approve or encourage violence. I think the reason both LW and RW populism irks so many people is that the most vocal people are the ones that get the attention, and they're often the more radical of these schools of thought. 

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I'd agree with that with one possible issue: What if parts of Trump's platform were accepted more so because they were coming from a bold, confident Trump but would otherwise not find as much success. I think anyone else using Trump's platform might have a harder time selling it authentically as Trump could. I do think dialing the rhetoric back will help, but how many Trump supporters are energized by that rhetoric? 

I'm not disagree with what you are saying, but I'm just trying to build a case that it might become a reverse of that. My best friend is a Trump supporter--red hat conspiracy theorist type--and he'd probably be disappointed if Trump's heir isn't like Trump. However, he'd probably be equally put off if Trump's heir can't authentically act like Trump. I think he'd most want Trump Jr. However, he already told me he's never going to vote again after 2020. He thinks elections will always be rigged against Trump-types. However, my friend might be an exception to most Trump supporters. My friend thinks Pence should be imprisoned for some reason that I don't understand. He also thinks all Never Trump Republicans and Democrats are part of some sort of child pornography ring. Etc, etc, etc. I think people like my friend want the rhetoric and the fighting. 

Just to explain why I'm friends with him, he and I were roommates from 2001-2003; and 2013-2014. In 2001-2003, he was non-religious, not very political, and was probably even more left-wing than I was at the time. I will say he was always very populist and wanted to blow up politics more than reform it. By 2013, he was into Alex Jones conspiracy theories, but disliked Republicans more than Democrats still, mostly because of Bush II's foreign policy. He was socially liberal, but was anti-abortion and pro-guns. He moved in with his parents in 2014 and become increasingly religious, increasing drug-addicted (never had an issue before), become pro-Cop (he used to dislike cops), pro-Military (used to dislike military people), and quickly supported Trump, while initially disliking all other Republicans. Once Trump became president, he started liking other Republicans. He still liked some Democrats, including Biden through the Dem primary, but once Biden was the nominee, Biden became "the spawn of Satan." It's just odd to me. Oh, he also lists Trump before God in his list of things he supports. Overall, I find it really depressing. It's like seeing a loved one get dementia or something. We don't talk about politics just so we can maintain a friendship, but I see things he posts/reposts on the internet regularly. People like my friend, I think, are looking for some sort of savior type who will boldly announce, "I alone can fix it." They require a Trump replacing a Trump or they won't vote. In fact, I think my friend only voted in 2016 and 2020, and he's 45 years old. 

I'm sure anyone not Trump will lose some MAGA types. But would they gain more? I think it's possible because I think Trump's policies were more important than his persona.

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53 minutes ago, Anthony_270 said:

I'm sure anyone not Trump will lose some MAGA types. But would they gain more? I think it's possible because I think Trump's policies were more important than his persona.

His china virus schtick is not going to work in 4 years. What's going on right now with is getting into some really dangerous territory and as usual he's going to continue to lose swing state suburban people if he keeps being an idiot/not listening to his team, just like he did with masks. 

 

Not even DeSantis or Cruz would be making the unforced errors like Trump did with that (which didn't play a big factor in 2020 but will in 2024) and masks (which played a big factor in 2020 but won't in 2024). 

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Am I the only person here who preferred Trump’s personality to policy? Sure, some things were better than generic republican for me (more secular, less of a deficit hawk, protectionist on trade, unilateral foreign policy, more of an immigration reductionist) but on domestic economic policy Biden is clearly better.

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2 hours ago, populist86 said:

Am I the only person here who preferred Trump’s personality to policy? Sure, some things were better than generic republican for me (more secular, less of a deficit hawk, protectionist on trade, unilateral foreign policy, more of an immigration reductionist) but on domestic economic policy Biden is clearly better.

 

10 hours ago, Anthony_270 said:

I'm sure anyone not Trump will lose some MAGA types. But would they gain more? I think it's possible because I think Trump's policies were more important than his persona.

I'm of the opinion that Trump's personality appealed more to his base than his policies. I think Anthony's question is important. Would they gain more non-Trump voters than they lose MAGA types. I'll add, if so, where does the increased support come from. 

One thing I noticed is that states that increase in population become more liberal (because more jobs, more tech, more immigrants, more education, etc.) and states that decrease in population become more conservative (because more nostalgic of when their state was booming). The 2020 census estimates might clue us in where we might see some voter shifts:

Red States growing in population by 10% or more (in order of growth): 

1. UT

2. TX

3. ID

4. ND

5. SC

Of these, I think TX has the only shot of going Blue in 2024, but it is more likely that we'll have to wait until 2028 or 2032. After this, I think SC is the most likely to go Blue by 2032. The number of Republicans in these other places are so high that we will only see the margin of GOP victory smaller, most likely. Salt Lake City has become a major destination point for jobseekers. If this continues, it could become like a Las Vegas -- a single city that pretty much determines which party wins the state. 

Here are the Purple states growing in population by 10% or more (in order):

1. NV

2. AZ

3. FL

4. NC

5. GA

I think NV is going to become harder for the GOP to win. All the others are definitely still purple. FL is a strange case because it's population growth often comes from retirees, who will be more nostalgic than jobseekers. I think AZ becomes more like NV in which Phoenix and the surrounding area will determine the election. I see AZ going Blue more often. I sort of think GA going Blue in 2020 was a fluke, but it will be purple certainly by 2024 or 2028. 

Here are the Blue states growing in pop by 10% or more (in order):

1. CO

2. WA

3. OR

No other blue states grew. As has been obvious, these states have become more and more liberal because of population growth. All of them were purple states about 25 years ago. CO was a purple state less than 20 years ago. All are solid blue now or will be in 2024. 

Here are the only states that lost population (in order):

1. West Virginia 

2. Illinois

3. Connecticut

4. Vermont

5. New York

6. Mississippi

WV has lost 3x as much as IL. Their decline is a huge reason why this was Trump's strongest states in 2016, and why it has moved from Democrats to Republicans. States #2 through #5 are solidly Blue for the moment, but expect a more palatable GOPer to do better in these states in 2024, 2028, and 2032. If not for Chicago, Illinois would be Red. If not for NYC, New York would be Purple in many elections. Phil Scott probably won election as governor of VT in part because of the causes of population decline. 

This could be a realistic election result in 2032 between two strong candidates: 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/wQO89

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