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Buttigieg/AOC 2024 VICTORY


lizphairphreak
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I played this 2024 scenario as AOC, starting with the primaries: http://campaigns.270soft.com/2020/10/25/2024-americas-crossroad/

For the GOP, I turned on Haley, Cotton, Cruz, Scott and DeSantis. Haley won pretty easily, with Cotton and Cruz both polling equal to her and falling back at different points. She ended up choosing Pence as VP.

For the Democrats, I turned on Harris, AOC, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Abrams, and Williamson. I had Gabbard, Booker, and Whitmer as Not Seeking and they all declined to run.

Had some candidates for Greens and Libertarians, but forget who (sorry.)

Harris was the clear frontrunner with AOC in second until Iowa, when Buttigieg surged to first and ended up winning almost every state but Nebraska (which went to Harris) and Vermont (which went to AOC.) As AOC, I came in third, and was able to negotiate a running mate position for Buttigieg in exchange for my delegates. He would've likely reached the threshold without AOC's delegates, but it would've taken until the end of the voting to do so.

Buttigieg was polling far ahead of Haley for the entire GE, usually around 7% if not more, but the electoral college was very iffy and genuinely could've gone either way up until the end. Buttigieg triumphed in all three debates, and AOC easily beat Pence too. The campaign ended up focusing on Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, and Indiana. In the end, this was the result:

image.thumb.png.2043a64dd03fdc4ea0c6c9f32789c8bf.png

Despite the clear margin of victory in both the Popular Vote and Electoral College, Haley remained strong in NC, GA, IA, AZ, and OH until the end, even leading in FL and WI at a few points. And despite massive investment into TX, Haley ended up carrying the state by around 3 points; in IN, she won by around 4.5.

All in all, I thought the GE portion of this was fairly realistic, other than Haley choosing Pence as a VP. The primaries were a different story: Abrams polled irrationally low, AOC led in random states (she was ahead in IA, NH, and NV at the beginning as well as UT and a few others,) and Kamala Harris got absolutely clobbered despite being VP by this point.

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