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Anthony_270
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Scott Walker of all people, pouring cold water on Trump's chances in WI.

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After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI,

@realDonaldTrump

numbers went up by 131. As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020

 

 

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569

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Stayed up most of the morning watching the results, here are a few of my thoughts :

1.) Polls are garbage

2.) Trump's easiest path to victory lies in NV + PA.  I think that there is a good chance that he can flip NV; if he does that, MI & WI are meaningless as long as he wins PA.

3.) I am shocked that Collins is still leading in Maine.  Same with James in Michigan.  McSally is getting blown out, which I expected.  Republicans are more than likely going to retain control over the Senate.

3.) Republicans have over performed in the House.  It will still be controlled by the Democrats, but they have managed to pick up a very good number of seats (or are leading in them), compared to expectations.

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It won’t happen, but public polling needs to stop. It is frankly destructive at this point.

Showing Biden so far ahead up to the end surely made some Biden voters overconfident and possibly some Trump voters demoralized. The result in either case is the loss of some votes due to bad polls.

This is a mess. And it’s because pollsters and media were determined to prematurely declare victory over Trump for months and months and months.

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11 minutes ago, PringlesN7 said:

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Current map layout. 

If Biden wins Michigan and Nevada, he gets it. 

Trump has to win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan or Nevada. (Both leaning Biden)

Not quite. Trump can win without Nevada or Michigan if he wins ME-2, but it will be through the house. A hollow victory, but a victory regardless.

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2 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Not quite. Trump can win without Nevada or Michigan if he wins ME-2, but it will be through the house. A hollow victory, but a victory regardless.

Disregard my last statement. Turns out with NE-2 blue this path is no longer an option.

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Just now, Zenobiyl said:

Not quite. Trump can win without Nevada or Michigan if he wins ME-2, but it will be through the house. A hollow victory, but a victory regardless.

Michigan is looking increasingly hopeful... Detroit and Grand Rapids is the only thing left. (Detroit moreso). Biden has a larger lead in Michigan than he does in Wisconsin. It's looking increasingly good for him there.

Nevada is interesting, but again, it's close because rural areas are 95% or more in... Vegas and Reno are still out there. 

 

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8 hours ago, Wiw said:

There's nearly 13,000,000 people in Pennsylvania, it's going to take a while to count all their votes!

Well, Florida isn't much less. They still managed it quite timely :D Sounds like incompetence or fraud in some other states...

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Florida has years of experience in heavy early and mail-in balloting.  PA does not, and it's not something that's easy to do.  Plus, IIRC, PA allows a few extra days for ballots that were postmarked on election day to arrive.

 

(And let's not forget that it was FL that was the laughing stock 20 years ago.  Let the state without sin cast the first stone ;) )

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57 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Not quite. Trump can win without Nevada or Michigan if he wins ME-2, but it will be through the house. A hollow victory, but a victory regardless.

In that map, if Trump wins PA, NC, GA and ME-2, he still comes up short an electoral vote (268 EV).  (Though I don't know if I would mark WI blue yet, even though it's looking good so far.)

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3 minutes ago, Defiant said:

Florida has years of experience in heavy early and mail-in balloting.  PA does not, and it's not something that's easy to do.  Plus, IIRC, PA allows a few extra days for ballots that were postmarked on election day to arrive.

 

(And let's not forget that it was FL that was the laughing stock 20 years ago.  Let the state without sin cast the first stone ;) )

Every state and locality has different rules and procedures for counting their votes.

The Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state legislature uniquely (terribly) did not allow for the counting of absentee votes until Election Day or the day after (today).

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pennsylvania-finish-counting-absentee-ballots-friday-earliest/story?id=73993649

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I didn't know that (I mean, maybe I'd read about it at some point, but it probably went in one ear and out the other with all the way too much news about all the battleground states).

 

But yeah, if they don't even start counting them for two days, then there's no way to expect them to be finished anytime soon.

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13 minutes ago, Jayavarman said:

Every state and locality has different rules and procedures for counting their votes.

^ This

Food for thought: America does not have a single election for President. We have 51 separate, disjointed elections for President (each state plus District of Columbia). All of which are then aggregated together to figure out a consensus result.

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Well, Florida isn't much less. They still managed it quite timely :D Sounds like incompetence or fraud in some other states...

Well, that has to do with counting policies. Florida has been counting early ballots for the past week. Pennsylvania Republicans blocked efforts to also count PA ballots early, instead they said they couldn't start opening the ballots until Election Day. This has lead to major delays. It's definetly not fraud and the only incompetence here is on the part of the Legislature.

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14 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said:

^ This

Food for thought: America does not have a single election for President. We have 51 separate, disjointed elections for President (each state plus District of Columbia). All of which are then aggregated together to figure out a consensus result.

Seems an awful waste of time, really.

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8 minutes ago, Defiant said:

I'd also point out that there are a number of states with similar percent of the vote counted as PA (eg, NY, NJ, CA, WA, etc)

 

We just don't notice because they're not battleground states and can be called relatively quickly.

This is where Joe is going to run it up in the National Popular Vote

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1 minute ago, Cenzonico said:

This election has been wild hasn't it? Pol Pundit been real quiet though...

Hallelujah!

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