Anthony_270 949 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Election day thread. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Biden team already panicking about their internal numbers 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Defiant 84 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 I put this in another thread, but I predict that Biden will win somewhere around 330 EV (give or take). Now to wait the day or two or twenty until we find out. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, Defiant said: I put this in another thread, but I predict that Biden will win somewhere around 330 EV (give or take). Now to wait the day or two or twenty until we find out. Trump is winning this probably narrowly EC wise but decisively. Will probably be "over" (regardless of Biden accepting it or not) by tonight. Even the mainstream realizes it 2 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Yawn. This will be a cakewalk. This hopefully puts an end to the disastrous polls, Nate Silver, mainstream lying media, and everyone else who doubted and manipulated bias against Trump.. The people are speaking loud and clear! 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Defiant 84 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said: Trump is winning this probably narrowly EC wise but decisively. Will probably be "over" (regardless of Biden accepting it or not) by tonight. Even the mainstream realizes it If Trump wins, it will take at least a day or two to find out. He's going to need 1-2 of the midwestern states to win, and given how slow their counting will be, I don't see any of them being called tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Defiant said: If Trump wins, it will take at least a day or two to find out. He's going to need 1-2 of the midwestern states to win, and given how slow their counting will be, I don't see any of them being called tonight. We're all smart people here, we'll know by tonight regardless of it being "official" that Trump will win if his margins are good. Yes it will probably take until tomorrow night or latest Friday for Biden to concede. PA is the biggest factor depending on how slow they reveal votes. --- 2 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The denial has begun 3 Link to post Share on other sites
Centrist Emperor Kerzaris 50 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 @PoliticalPundit I'd like for you to stay and don't leave once you realize Biden has already won. I'd like your reaction. Your smugness is irritating. This isn't a personal attack, but rather an observation. I'm not even a Biden Supporter nor someone with great confidence in his chances. But I'd like for him to win just to spite you. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Centrist Emperor Kerzaris said: @PoliticalPundit I'd like for you to stay and don't leave once you realize Biden has already won. I'd like your reaction. Your smugness is irritating. This isn't a personal attack, but rather an observation. Will you admit how wrong you were when the Democrats lose... again? I just look at numbers Centrist 2 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 We take PA and Arizona the race is over... this is not even accounting for the potential states like Nevada/Minnesota Trump might win as well for icing. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Jayavarman 130 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Live Blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Jayavarman said: Live Blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ the highlight of tonight will be another colossal failure by Nate "10% Trump" Silver and his attempts to spin away his disastrous tweets and pro Biden articles from the last 8 months. At least he didn't say 9%! That's a win in his book 2 Link to post Share on other sites
mlcorcoran 71 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 If Joe Biden is ahead in every reliable poll, and ahead in projected vote count, and a statistician reports on those facts, is that a "pro-Biden" article? 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said: If Joe Biden is ahead in every reliable poll, and ahead in projected vote count, and a statistician reports on those facts, is that a "pro-Biden" article? im taking mainly about Nate's tweets which are 95% snarky trump jabs constantly, also the podcasts where others are more open minded but Nate constantly goes on and on about how unlikely it is trump wins and did you miss 2016? same scenario going on right now in Florida where trump is once again exceeding his "numbers" Stay tuned! Link to post Share on other sites
mlcorcoran 71 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point. For a podcast dedicated to statistics and data points to "go on and on about it" is very much in line with the purpose of such a podcast. That's like complaining that Marc Maron "goes on and on" about stand-up comedy on his podcast. Snarky tweets are disappointing, much like snarky antagonistic message board posts. However they are not "articles". I did not miss 2016. And this is not the same scenario, for many reasons. Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 325 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said: The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point. For a podcast dedicated to statistics and data points to "go on and on about it" is very much in line with the purpose of such a podcast. That's like complaining that Marc Maron "goes on and on" about stand-up comedy on his podcast. Snarky tweets are disappointing, much like snarky antagonistic message board posts. However they are not "articles". I did not miss 2016. And this is not the same scenario, for many reasons. I guess we'll see in 7 hours or so then! The numbers so far look phenomenal for Trump. Why has the campaign manager for Biden already started spinning them not needing Florida AND PA to win? 2 Link to post Share on other sites
mlcorcoran 71 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Biden's camp is saying they can win the Presidency no matter what happens in PA and Florida. They're pointing to the possibility of a runaway landslide victory, not spinning an impending defeat. It's very bad news for the incumbent. Not phenomenal to anyone rooting for him. Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 949 Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said: The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point. What do you mean? 'Unlikely' is presumably relative to someone's beliefs about accuracy of polls, and so on. That's subjective, not objective. Polls themselves are based on models of the electorate. Those models are based on the modelers' beliefs about the electorate - also subjective. 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 949 Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said: Biden's camp is saying they can win the Presidency no matter what happens in PA and Florida. They're pointing to the possibility of a runaway landslide victory That doesn't make sense to me. If Biden loses both FL and PA, that's very bad news for the Biden camp, and indicates they won't have a runaway landslide victory, no? Link to post Share on other sites
mlcorcoran 71 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 If Biden's camp has such a commanding lead that PA and Florida are no longer linchpins to victory, then that is the opposite of bad news for Biden. I personally am not convinced of their statement and I think PA and Florida are both must-wins for either candidate. And in my prior statement about data points, "unlikely" was not a relative belief statement, it was a summary on the data modeling of an 89% chance of Biden winning, 10% chance of Trump winning, and 1% chance of no clear winner. That is not subjective it is the aggregation of FiveThirtyEight's data models. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 949 Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said: If Biden's camp has such a commanding lead that PA and Florida are no longer linchpins to victory That doesn't seem to be what she said. According to the tweet, it was 'can win even without'. Why would you say that if you're going to win those 2 states? 2 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said: it was a summary on the data modeling of an 89% chance of Biden winning, 10% chance of Trump winning, and 1% chance of no clear winner. That is not subjective it is the aggregation of FiveThirtyEight's data models. All sorts of subjective beliefs go into the data models! That's why their numbers vary from various other forecasters'. Link to post Share on other sites
jvikings1 40 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 This is one of the strange elections where it could be a Biden landslide, a Trump landslide, or a very close race. Honestly, I could see any of these happening. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Berg2036 56 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Yes the Biden campaign has a path to 270 if they lose Pennsylvania and Florida but that means running the table in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona while holding MN, MI, and WI. Which could really happen. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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