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I had to come back just to get a taste of the cope.

Thanks everyone for your comments on this thread. At least for the time being, there will be no more general political discussion threads on the forum. Please see here for more info. https://270s

TRUMP WILL WIN THE AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE!

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Just now, Defiant said:

I put this in another thread, but I predict that Biden will win somewhere around 330 EV (give or take).  Now to wait the day or two or twenty until we find out.

Trump is winning this probably narrowly EC wise but decisively. Will probably be "over" (regardless of Biden accepting it or not) by tonight. Even the mainstream realizes it 

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2 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump is winning this probably narrowly EC wise but decisively. Will probably be "over" (regardless of Biden accepting it or not) by tonight. Even the mainstream realizes it 

If Trump wins, it will take at least a day or two to find out.  He's going to need 1-2 of the midwestern states to win, and given how slow their counting will be, I don't see any of them being called tonight.

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4 minutes ago, Defiant said:

If Trump wins, it will take at least a day or two to find out.  He's going to need 1-2 of the midwestern states to win, and given how slow their counting will be, I don't see any of them being called tonight.

We're all smart people here, we'll know by tonight regardless of it being "official" that Trump will win if his margins are good. Yes it will probably take until tomorrow night or latest Friday for Biden to concede. PA is the biggest factor depending on how slow they reveal votes. 

 

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@PoliticalPundit I'd like for you to stay and don't leave once you realize Biden has already won. 

I'd like your reaction. Your smugness is irritating. This isn't a personal attack, but rather an observation. I'm not even a Biden Supporter nor someone with great confidence in his chances. But I'd like for him to win just to spite you. :)

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1 minute ago, Centrist Emperor Kerzaris said:

@PoliticalPundit I'd like for you to stay and don't leave once you realize Biden has already won. 

I'd like your reaction. Your smugness is irritating. This isn't a personal attack, but rather an observation. 

Will you admit how wrong you were when the Democrats lose... again? 

 

I just look at numbers Centrist :)

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1 minute ago, Jayavarman said:

the highlight of tonight will be another colossal failure by Nate "10% Trump" Silver and his attempts to spin away his disastrous tweets and pro Biden articles from the last 8 months. 

At least he didn't say 9%! That's a win in his book 🤣

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1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said:

If Joe Biden is ahead in every reliable poll, and ahead in projected vote count, and a statistician reports on those facts, is that a "pro-Biden" article?

im taking mainly about Nate's tweets which are 95% snarky trump jabs constantly, also the podcasts where others are more open minded but Nate constantly goes on and on about how unlikely it is trump wins

 

and did you miss 2016? same scenario going on right now in Florida where trump is once again exceeding his "numbers" Stay tuned! 

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The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point. For a podcast dedicated to statistics and data points to "go on and on about it" is very much in line with the purpose of such a podcast. That's like complaining that Marc Maron "goes on and on" about stand-up comedy on his podcast.

Snarky tweets are disappointing, much like snarky antagonistic message board posts. However they are not "articles".

I did not miss 2016. And this is not the same scenario, for many reasons.

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1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said:

The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point. For a podcast dedicated to statistics and data points to "go on and on about it" is very much in line with the purpose of such a podcast. That's like complaining that Marc Maron "goes on and on" about stand-up comedy on his podcast.

Snarky tweets are disappointing, much like snarky antagonistic message board posts. However they are not "articles".

I did not miss 2016. And this is not the same scenario, for many reasons.

I guess we'll see in 7 hours or so then! 🤣

 

The numbers so far look phenomenal for Trump. Why has the campaign manager for Biden already started spinning them not needing Florida AND PA to win? 

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Biden's camp is saying they can win the Presidency no matter what happens in PA and Florida. They're pointing to the possibility of a runaway landslide victory, not spinning an impending defeat.

It's very bad news for the incumbent. Not phenomenal to anyone rooting for him.

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12 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said:

The unlikeliness of Trump winning is an objective fact, a data point.

What do you mean? 'Unlikely' is presumably relative to someone's beliefs about accuracy of polls, and so on. That's subjective, not objective.

Polls themselves are based on models of the electorate. Those models are based on the modelers' beliefs about the electorate - also subjective.

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4 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said:

Biden's camp is saying they can win the Presidency no matter what happens in PA and Florida. They're pointing to the possibility of a runaway landslide victory

That doesn't make sense to me. If Biden loses both FL and PA, that's very bad news for the Biden camp, and indicates they won't have a runaway landslide victory, no?

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If Biden's camp has such a commanding lead that PA and Florida are no longer linchpins to victory, then that is the opposite of bad news for Biden.

I personally am not convinced of their statement and I think PA and Florida are both must-wins for either candidate.

And in my prior statement about data points, "unlikely" was not a relative belief statement, it was a summary on the data modeling of an 89% chance of Biden winning, 10% chance of Trump winning, and 1% chance of no clear winner. That is not subjective it is the aggregation of FiveThirtyEight's data models.

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1 minute ago, mlcorcoran said:

If Biden's camp has such a commanding lead that PA and Florida are no longer linchpins to victory

That doesn't seem to be what she said. According to the tweet, it was 'can win even without'. Why would you say that if you're going to win those 2 states?

2 minutes ago, mlcorcoran said:

it was a summary on the data modeling of an 89% chance of Biden winning, 10% chance of Trump winning, and 1% chance of no clear winner. That is not subjective it is the aggregation of FiveThirtyEight's data models.

All sorts of subjective beliefs go into the data models! That's why their numbers vary from various other forecasters'.

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This is one of the strange elections where it could be a Biden landslide, a Trump landslide, or a very close race. Honestly, I could see any of these happening.

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Yes the Biden campaign has a path to 270 if they lose Pennsylvania and Florida but that means running the table in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona while holding MN, MI, and WI. Which could really happen. 

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