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My prediction and my bellwether state


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First off I do believe that President Trump will be re elected and my first reason as to why I believe that is many many people have already voted and those people who did are more likely than not Democratic voters. If someone is still undecided as of today I believe they will break for Trump because clearly they are not phased by him and support his policies. I also think that a lot more people are turning out to vote that have not voted before and those people are very hard for pollsters to model and poll. I do also believe that there are many in at least my county split ticket voters are turning out more than I expected where they vote trump but democratic down the rest of the ticket. My bellwether State is you guessed it MINNESOTA. my thinking as to why it is the bellwether because all votes must be in by 8pm to vote and we need to count them before we go home tonight. It also has a close Senate race that will determine how the Republican Senate candidates are doing nation if Jason Lewis can knock off Tina Smith who is not very popular and did not really work the state like Amy Klobuchar would and does. It also hosts Competitive house seats. MN - 8 which is the old Democratic base voters pro union workers and miners has Pete Stauber Running for Reelection to possibly become the first Republican in that district since the 1940s to win. It also has the very last true Blue Dog Democrat in Collin Peterson. Collin Peterson has been in Congress since 1991 and was reelected in 2016 by running some 30+ points ahead of Hillary Clinton and the Republicans have a very strong candidate in Michelle Fischbach who is a former State Senate President and Lieutenant  Governor of Minnesota who has fundraised a large amount and is poised to beat him. It also has the suburban districts that Republicans used to dominate that left the party in 2018, MN - 3 and MN - 2 which are two very different but very similar. in MN - 3 the incumbent is Dean Philips heir to the Phillip's distillery company and is the 5th richest member of congress who beat Erik Paulson who was a long time Rep in 2018. This time around the Republicans are not invest nearly any money but the Republican Candidate has run a pretty good race and that is Kendall Qualls and former vet, I know this district very well because I lived in it my whole life. MN - 2 is very strange this time around. The former congressman Jason Lewis won in 2016 then lost in 2018 and is now running for senate. The Incumbent Rep is Angie Craig a former medical executive who is running for the third time but second term. Her opponent is Tyler Kristner which is a former marine and really has been pushing his theme of 'Send in the Marine" and has really worked hard and raised a sizeable amount, but three weeks ago the race was thrown into chaos when Adam Weeks the Legalize Marijuana candidate unexpectedly died and according the Minnesota state law the election was to be postponed because in Minnesota both Legalize marijuana party's are considered major party's thus triggering the delay. A judge ruled that the election was back on and Tyler Kristner is appealing because it directly goes against the law intended to happen. 

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