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A fantastic thread by Trump's campaign manager. He mentions other swing states after the thread ends in other posts. 

My only concern is he has concrete numbers on every state (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, NC, etc) but the only one he projects Trump to "Do well" in but w no concrete numbers is PA. That's very worrisome. 

 

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Just saw Obama's crowd for Florida

 

Was probably.. 50 people max. No social distancing. 

 

Who tf's idea was that?

 

I don't blame Biden if he loses

I blame his disastrous campaign and ground game

I'm sure he'd have had a more normal campaign had COVID-19 not happened. Regardless of the outcome, I'm taking the comparisons of the campaign strategies with a grain of salt:

Biden supporters presumably support his limited rallies, whereas Trump supporters presumably support him holding rallies. Biden would stand to lose from following Trump's lead, Trump would stand to lose from following Biden's lead.

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Just now, Alxeu said:

I'm sure he'd have had a more normal campaign had COVID-19 not happened. Regardless of the outcome, I'm taking the comparisons of the campaign strategies with a grain of salt:

Biden supporters presumably support his limited rallies, whereas Trump supporters presumably support him holding rallies. Biden would stand to lose from following Trump's lead, Trump would stand to lose from following Biden's lead.

Enthusiasm is enthusiasm. The early voting signs look bad for Biden, they aren't at the numbers they were hoping for 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

Enthusiasm is enthusiasm. The early voting signs look bad for Biden, they aren't at the numbers they were hoping for 

Hard to say if that's because Biden's supporters have low enthusiasm, or if Trump supporters are hopping on the early voting train, too. If we take 2016's results, and translate a scenario where 100% of Democrats vote early, and the remaining share of the early vote is Republicans, then the maximum possible favorability of the early voting results is roughly 65% Democrat, 35% Republican. Since such a scenario is the hypothetical maximum, it stands to reason that it would be somewhat less.

We can't predict the results of an election based purely off of early voting results, after all. There'd still be a large chunk of people who were uncounted in the result. Again, assuming 2016 numbers, 136.6 million Americans voted. That means that, at minimum, we're looking at another 36.6 million people, at least, and if there's one thing I can assume you'd agree with, is that turnout will be higher than in 2016.

I'm hesitant to trust any type of prior knowledge from previous elections, simply due to the pandemic, which has already resulted in a historic spike in early voting results, which has almost certainly skewed the results away from their usual percentages.

As a side note, voted absentee a couple weeks ago, my first Presidential Election, but not my first election, as I voted in the 2018 midterms, previously.

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18 minutes ago, Alxeu said:

Hard to say if that's because Biden's supporters have low enthusiasm, or if Trump supporters are hopping on the early voting train, too. If we take 2016's results, and translate a scenario where 100% of Democrats vote early, and the remaining share of the early vote is Republicans, then the maximum possible favorability of the early voting results is roughly 65% Democrat, 35% Republican. Since such a scenario is the hypothetical maximum, it stands to reason that it would be somewhat less.

We can't predict the results of an election based purely off of early voting results, after all. There'd still be a large chunk of people who were uncounted in the result. Again, assuming 2016 numbers, 136.6 million Americans voted. That means that, at minimum, we're looking at another 36.6 million people, at least, and if there's one thing I can assume you'd agree with, is that turnout will be higher than in 2016.

I'm hesitant to trust any type of prior knowledge from previous elections, simply due to the pandemic, which has already resulted in a historic spike in early voting results, which has almost certainly skewed the results away from their usual percentages.

As a side note, voted absentee a couple weeks ago, my first Presidential Election, but not my first election, as I voted in the 2018 midterms, previously.

Tomorrow will be a tsunami of Trump voters heading to the ballots. There have been a bunch of articles already of Dems freaking out about early voting in Florida etc 

The only way Trump loses is if the assumed Trump Voters that they have marked as "going to the polls" don't. His whole campaign has been about enthusiasm and if he can't get them to the polls then it is what it is.

 

I see the margins being about 70-30 for Trump 

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5 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Tomorrow will be a tsunami of Trump voters heading to the ballots. There have been a bunch of articles already of Dems freaking out about early voting in Florida etc 

The only way Trump loses is if the assumed Trump Voters that they have marked as "going to the polls" don't. His whole campaign has been about enthusiasm and if he can't get them to the polls then it is what it is.

 

I see the margins being about 70-30 for Trump 

I'd peg a more conservative 60-40 for Trump as the maximum on Election Day, for reasons I mentioned above. If early voting margins aren't as strong as the Democrats like, it's probably because Republicans are voting early, as well.

Granted, I haven't actually seen the early voting results and interpreted them for myself. If it's just that not as many people are turning out to early vote as expected (which seems unlikely, imo), then there'd actually be a problem for the Dems.

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2 minutes ago, RainbowFish said:

I'm confused on how people think Trump is winning? I don't think the number of people voting for him will change at all. I think he will receive around the same amount of votes as 2016, but the Democrats are the ones who will be receiving many more votes this election.

That's what my general suspicion is, as well. There certainly seems to be more enthusiasm and desire to beat Trump this time around, whereas I haven't seen anything indicating Trump's grown his support significantly since 2016.

I also still believe the Democrats will find a way to lose the election, despite this.

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I would say that of the independents and of what I've been seeing is a hard move to the trump vote the last 6 days of the campaign here in Minnesota. While I don't live in the largest county it is a sizeable population that used to be very old school democratic but not any more. My thinking is he will lose a bit of ground in the suburbs gain ground in Urban Minneapolis and expand the margins in out state Minnesota or as our very liberal terrible governor called it the land of rocks and cows. 

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1 hour ago, RainbowFish said:

I'm confused on how people think Trump is winning? I don't think the number of people voting for him will change at all. I think he will receive around the same amount of votes as 2016, but the Democrats are the ones who will be receiving many more votes this election.

1) Trump set records during the primaries for people who turned out to vote for him unopposed. That's enthusiasm. Remember all the supposed Republicans who wouldn't vote for him in 2016? LMAO

 

2) For the last 4 years ,Republicans have made a concerted effort to register new Republicans and there are countless numbers on their success with it. 4 YEARS. While the Democrats have been fighting each other and Progressives, Republicans have only been adding numbers.

 

3) Incumbents always have a massive advantage 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

1) Trump set records during the primaries for people who turned out to vote for him unopposed. That's enthusiasm. Remember all the supposed Republicans who wouldn't vote for him in 2016? LMAO

 

2) For the last 4 years ,Republicans have made a concerted effort to register new Republicans and there are countless numbers on their success with it. 4 YEARS. While the Democrats have been fighting each other and Progressives, Republicans have only been adding numbers.

 

3) Incumbents always have a massive advantage 

I don't have much to say on points 1 and 2, as I won't contest the factual nature of his primary results, and I'm uncertain on the statistics for 2, but on 3, incumbency is not always an advantage.

1992 is a good example, as well as countless senatorial and house elections since. If the incumbent is unpopular, that tends to do more harm than any amount of boost gained from incumbency.

Say what you will about his popularity with his base, but for basically the entirety of his presidency, the majority of the American people have been opposed to Trump.

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6 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

So you believe Trump will win too? Welcome! 

What do you mean "Welcome"? You know, I only said otherwise because I started to believe we had a chance. As a matter of fact I think you're right. He'll cheat his way to victory, like he always does.

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