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My Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction (and my next-to-last post overall)


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I predict that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump 307-231. 

My write-up for this prediction is found on my blog: https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/

I will make my final 270Soft post later this afternoon. I am creating a new forum along with some other active members from this forum. I'll explain how to get there in my final post for anyone interested. All those that don't seek disharmony will be welcome. 

My map is here: Vpvo6.png

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

 

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With polling by Morning Consult out, that is likely the last scraps of polls we're going to get.

As of now, Biden is outrunning Beto by 10% among whites, and is level where he is with Hispanics and African-Americans. That would likely be enough to make it more than interesting.

Stacey Abrams lost whites in Georgia by 48%. Biden's margin there right now is anywhere from -34 (Monmouth) to -41 (Morning Consult). If Biden narrows it to less than 44, GA will go blue.

Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke paved the way in the Sun Belt. God Bless. 

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58 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I predict that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump 307-231. 

My write-up for this prediction is found on my blog: https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/

I will make my final 270Soft post later this afternoon. I am creating a new forum along with some other active members from this forum. I'll explain how to get there in my final post for anyone interested. All those that don't seek disharmony will be welcome. 

My map is here: Vpvo6.png

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

 

This map is possible, but about Pollsters solving problems from past... They also said it in Portugal about Azores 2020, after falling 2016 by big margin like you can see here.
image.png.22b0bb43ac570a3da989a11d56a2b172.png

In 2020 mistake wasnt so big, but existed, even after pollsters guaranting that was much less probable than in 2016, PS had 5.4 lead instead of 13 lead, all right parties had better results than predicted (PSD, CDS, PPM, Chega, except IL that had +- the same). PSD now is centrist, but is considered as Right here. This only happened because turnout altought.

image.png.8ccf6b806a471ebc8b4b680453bb73ea.png

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke paved the way in the Sun Belt. God Bless. 

Not understandable to me. Abrams is one of the most unlikeable, demanding and lecturing politicians out there. Beto is a terrible campaigner with only one message. ''Guns are terrible!''

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Not understandable to me. Abrams is one of the most unlikeable, demanding and lecturing politicians out there. Beto is a terrible campaigner with only one message. ''Guns are terrible!''

Abrams ran a good campaign for GA, undeniably she got closer than anybody else. 

O'Rourke, you have a good point. However, I think the large part of that rhetoric came during his presidential campaign, which changed perceptions of him.

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1 minute ago, Wiw said:

Well they are!

I believe it's the people who use them falsely. 

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8 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Here is my final927605233_ScreenShot2020-11-02at11_38_56AM.thumb.png.cd173abdecc917d450088dd3e3996430.png

Notice, 110 trump tilts vs only 37 Biden tilts, so I definitely think Biden can still have a massive landslide. 

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13 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I believe it's the people who use them falsely. 

What is a false use vs. a valid use? And would we as a species be in any way worse off if nobody owned or used a gun?

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8 minutes ago, Mark_W said:

What is a false use vs. a valid use? And would we as a species be in any way worse off if nobody owned or used a gun?

A valid use applies when it's done for self defense.

Without guns thugs could still find a way to obtain them, but the decent people wouldn't be capable to defend themselves anymore.

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13 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

A valid use applies when it's done for self defense.

Without guns thugs could still find a way to obtain them, but the decent people wouldn't be capable to defend themselves anymore.

They can use something else, like say, a knife.

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15 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

A valid use applies when it's done for self defense.

Without guns thugs could still find a way to obtain them, but the decent people wouldn't be capable to defend themselves anymore.


But could they? On the scale they do currently? Why is gun crime so comparitevly high in the US if bad people will obtain them however many you have?

Why does the UK (just taking an example I know) have proportionally much less gun crime?

And does it not matter to you that US states with less restrictive gun controls, also have much higher suicide rates (partly because gunfire as a method of suicide is much more likely to be fatal than many of the options you have when you don't have the same access to guns)? Should we encourage an approach that makes it easier for good people with mental ill health to take their own lives?

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59 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Abrams is one of the most unlikeable, demanding and lecturing politicians out there.

I always thought Huckabee was the worst for these three traits, at least among prominent U.S. politicians in recent memory. And he was pitiless to those who deserved pity, and gave forgiveness to unrepretent rapists and murderers, so his judgement is also very faulty.

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18 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

A valid use applies when it's done for self defense.

Without guns thugs could still find a way to obtain them, but the decent people wouldn't be capable to defend themselves anymore.

The "need," for guns are a self-fulfilling and self-perpetuating need, and the body-count keeps rising because of it. Plus, the twisted fetishism and cultural obsession with gun violence in U.S. culture is probably a worse problem than any gun laws or rights themselves.

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