Final Prediction before the final prediction (Most Probable Scenario with the Most Probable Economic Scenario) - Biden 50.1% Trump 46.3%

[Entrecampos 73]

I will post the optimistic and pessimistic economic scenario too. This is the official prediction altought.
Tomorrow I will publish updated, with percentages for each state and with congressional districts (I expect).

Edited November 1, 2020 by Entrecampos
Corrected NH

[Mark_W 136]

*shudders*

[PoliticalPundit 373]

WOOO!!!

 

Trump's gonna win PA though.. I'd give Biden Georgia 

[Zenobiyl 213]

In some ways this would be a blessing in disguise. Biden is an poor nominee, and 4 more years of Trump will leave democrats ready for real change while republicans rest on their laurels. 

With two failed establishment candidates, the stage will be set for someone new, someone fresh, and someone who hasn’t been in office since the dawn of time. Trump will have fulfilled his promise (although not in the way he anticipated), and will have “drained the swamp” of establishment democrat nominees.

Think about the 2000 election. Although it was unfair how Bush won, without Bush’s victory we never would have had Obama. We would have had Al Gore, a boring establishment politician like Joe Biden. 

 

[Entrecampos 73]

I made a small mistake in New Hampshire, putting the pessimistic forecast there.

This is the pessimistic forecast.

 

[Wiw 92]

1 minute ago, Zenobiyl said:

In some ways this would be a blessing in disguise. Biden is an poor nominee, and 4 more years of Trump will leave democrats ready for real change while republicans rest on their laurels. 

With two failed establishment candidates, the stage will be set for someone new, someone fresh, and someone who hasn’t been in office since the dawn of time. Trump will have fulfilled his promise (although not in the way he anticipated), and will have “drained the swamp” of establishment democrat nominees.

Think about the 2000 election. Although it was unfair how Bush won, without Bush’s victory we never would have had Obama. We would have had Al Gore, a boring establishment politician like Joe Biden. 

 

Very unlikely, given that Trump will at least try to run for a third term.

[Zenobiyl 213]

1 minute ago, Wiw said:

Very unlikely, given that Trump will at least try to run for a third term.

He doesn’t need to. Pence is basically Trump’s third term (and is much more statesmanlike as well). Trump is ancient already; do you really think he wants to have the most stressful job on Earth any longer than he needs to?

[PoliticalPundit 373]

3 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Very unlikely, given that Trump will at least try to run for a third term.

Nah, Trump Jr is running in 4 years 

 

Donald's done after this 

[Entrecampos 73]

And this is the optimistic economic scenario.
This

 

[Wiw 92]

17 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

He doesn’t need to. Pence is basically Trump’s third term (and is much more statesmanlike as well). Trump is ancient already; do you really think he wants to have the most stressful job on Earth any longer than he needs to?

Certainly looks like it to me.

[Reagan04 661]

29 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

In some ways this would be a blessing in disguise. Biden is an poor nominee, and 4 more years of Trump will leave democrats ready for real change while republicans rest on their laurels. 

With two failed establishment candidates, the stage will be set for someone new, someone fresh, and someone who hasn’t been in office since the dawn of time. Trump will have fulfilled his promise (although not in the way he anticipated), and will have “drained the swamp” of establishment democrat nominees.

Think about the 2000 election. Although it was unfair how Bush won, without Bush’s victory we never would have had Obama. We would have had Al Gore, a boring establishment politician like Joe Biden. 

 

No, bad. The nation needs a sane GOP to survive. Don’t sentence me to Libertarian exile.

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

44 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

I will post the optimistic and pessimistic economic scenario too. This is the official prediction altought.
Tomorrow I will publish updated, with percentages for each state and with congressional districts (I expect).

I think this is what Trump would be looking at had he handled the pandemic correctly.

[Herbert Hoover 199]

15 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I think this is what Trump would be looking at had he handled the pandemic correctly.

I think that if Trump loses the election, then conservatives and liberals alike will point to his so incredibly poor response to COVID as what cost him a guaranteed win.

[PoliticalPundit 373]

16 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I think this is what Trump would be looking at had he handled the pandemic correctly.

nah if Trump didnt have the pandemic they would have literally 0 argument besides the re-hashed, "He's a racist!!" especially with the economy most likely setting record highs esp in the stock market 

[PoliticalPundit 373]

Just now, Herbert Hoover said:

I think that if Trump loses the election, then conservatives and liberals alike will point to his so incredibly poor response to COVID as what cost him a guaranteed win.

If it's a close loss

 

I'd blame that

but also Trump getting covid

- cost him a 2nd real debate

- cost him 4-5 days of legit campaigning 

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

1 minute ago, Herbert Hoover said:

I think that if Trump loses the election, then conservatives and liberals alike will point to his so incredibly poor response to COVID as what cost him a guaranteed win.

Idk about "guaranteed" but he was definitely favored on every sportsbetting site I was on, sometimes even by 80%.

[jnewt 37]

2 hours ago, Entrecampos said:

I will post the optimistic and pessimistic economic scenario too. This is the official prediction altought.
Tomorrow I will publish updated, with percentages for each state and with congressional districts (I expect).

This is the exact same as my prediction

[Edouard 124]

I personnaly believe that Trump has higher chances to take Pennsylvania rather than Wisconsin.

But yes your maps are pretty good, and actually your pessimist scenario is my own projection, but for me Biden is between 280 and 375 Evs (335 is the good compromise).

[Entrecampos 73]

On 11/2/2020 at 3:34 AM, Edouard said:

I personnaly believe that Trump has higher chances to take Pennsylvania rather than Wisconsin.

But yes your maps are pretty good, and actually your pessimist scenario is my own projection, but for me Biden is between 280 and 375 Evs (335 is the good compromise).

 

For now, my map was right everywhere except Wisconsin (lets see what will happen in the others).

[Edouard 124]

1 hour ago, Entrecampos said:

 

For now, my map was right everywhere except Wisconsin (lets see what will happen in the others).

In 2 hours we will know if Biden wins Arizona but it is likely (as of now)

As I said, I am open minded

I told several days ago that this was the only path to victory for Trump : 

 

And I am right  excepted if Nevada switches (which is unlikely too as of now) Trump needs to get Arizona.

[Wiw 92]

Again, I don't like the look of it. Trump only needs to overturn ONE of those blue states to steal the win away from Biden. How many Justices will he bribe to get that going?

[Edouard 124]

3 hours ago, Wiw said:

Again, I don't like the look of it. Trump only needs to overturn ONE of those blue states to steal the win away from Biden. How many Justices will he bribe to get that going?

It remains 50 000 votes to count in Georgia and 500 000 in Penn, Joe has good chances to win both but more Penn than Georgia

[Wiw 92]

50 minutes ago, Edouard said:

Joe has good chances to win both but more Penn than Georgia

Considering he's over 100,000 votes behind, that's debatable.

[Edouard 124]

4 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Considering he's over 100,000 votes behind, that's debatable.

Yes of course !

But if you want more details

Yesterday morning Trump was 690 000 votes ahead of Biden and there were 1 400 000 remaining votes to count in Pennsylvania.

As of now, 900 000 votes of these 1 400 000 have been counted, mainly from Philadelphia and Trump's margin has come from 700 000 to 100 000

That means that Biden got roughly 750 000 votes by mail and Trump 150 000.

If the trends remains the same, well, Biden will enjoy a margin of more than 100 000 votes over Trump in Pennsylvania.

[Wiw 92]

I suppose that's possible.