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Nate Silver guarantees there is a 10% chance Trump wins!!!


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That’s how odds work.  If something has only a 1% chance of happening, it may be defying the odds when it happens on the first try, but 1% is not “impossible”. Anyone who says there’s a 100% chan

Yes, and Biden would still win with 335 electoral votes if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016. 10% is generous, and this is coming from someone who is more likely to vote for him than Biden

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Yes, and Biden would still win with 335 electoral votes if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016. 10% is generous, and this is coming from someone who is more likely to vote for him than Biden (but i'm 99% writing in Barry Goldwater)

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10 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Yes, and Biden would still win with 335 electoral votes if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016. 10% is generous, and this is coming from someone who is more likely to vote for him than Biden (but i'm 99% writing in Barry Goldwater)

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dont believe polls

 

trump will win this by a lot, trust me

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2 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

So even if Trump wins

 

Nate Silver and 538 was 100% right

 

Because they said Trump had a 10% chance to win! 

That’s how odds work.  If something has only a 1% chance of happening, it may be defying the odds when it happens on the first try, but 1% is not “impossible”.

Anyone who says there’s a 100% chance of either side winning is being ridiculous.  It is not literally impossible for either side to win (2016 proved that).

More comically, I was listening to one of their podcasts yesterday, and one of the guys (can’t remember if it was Nate Silver or one of his staff, group discussion) said “There is a 100% chance that Joe Biden wins the election!” Followed by “There is a 100% chance that Donald Trump wins the election!”  And then jokingly telling his sound guy to split the two predictions and play the correct one after the election so he can be the guy who confidently predicted the exact result of the election.  ;c)

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Silver is definitely gonna say he was correct (if that happens) because he pulled the same crap in 2016. He is just one who cannot admit defeat and say that he was wrong.

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Nate Silver (well, his model) estimates there's a 10% chance.

 

And, of course, we must keep in mind that Silver's model relies on polling that are inherently not exact (although the odds of polling being wrong are, IIUC, built into the modeling), and does *not* take into account things like potential shenanigans or any October Surprises that would happen after polling can capture it.

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7 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

 

trump will win this by a lot, trust me

 

Would that lot be a used car lot?   Because it would be an appropriate location for his election night victory celebration to be by (or even better *in*) a used car lot.  ;) 

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1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

Silver is definitely gonna say he was correct (if that happens) because he pulled the same crap in 2016. He is just one who cannot admit defeat and say that he was wrong.

More like people don't understand basic probability.

Something with 70% odds doesn't always happen all the time.  In fact, almost a third of the time it *doesn't* happen.

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1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

Silver is definitely gonna say he was correct (if that happens) because he pulled the same crap in 2016. He is just one who cannot admit defeat and say that he was wrong.

He wasn’t wrong.  People think anything less than a 50% chance means a 0% chance.  He’s not responsible for people not knowing what a percentage chance means.

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5 hours ago, Actinguy said:

That’s how odds work.  If something has only a 1% chance of happening, it may be defying the odds when it happens on the first try, but 1% is not “impossible”.

Anyone who says there’s a 100% chance of either side winning is being ridiculous.  It is not literally impossible for either side to win (2016 proved that).

More comically, I was listening to one of their podcasts yesterday, and one of the guys (can’t remember if it was Nate Silver or one of his staff, group discussion) said “There is a 100% chance that Joe Biden wins the election!” Followed by “There is a 100% chance that Donald Trump wins the election!”  And then jokingly telling his sound guy to split the two predictions and play the correct one after the election so he can be the guy who confidently predicted the exact result of the election.  ;c)

Even if Biden or Trump were to drop dead today or tomorrow (for the sake of argument, solely - no death wishes being made!), because the U.S. Electoral System does not remove a candidate from the ballot once their on for being deceased, and I believe there's some rule about the running mate being elected in their stead in such a case (which would mean the later rule about selecting a post-election VP that made Ford, and not long after, Rockefeller as short-lived VP's would be invoked on inauguration day, anyways), if I understand correctly.

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https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html?utm_campaign=organic&utm_medium=socialshare&utm_source=twitter

 

Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog"

 

So if Biden doesn't win PA he goes from 90% odds to win to.. at best 49%??? interesting hedging Nate...

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38 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html?utm_campaign=organic&utm_medium=socialshare&utm_source=twitter

 

Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog"

 

So if Biden doesn't win PA he goes from 90% odds to win to.. at best 49%??? interesting hedging Nate...

Ok but Biden's ony up 4 points in Pennsylvania, and the polls would have to be off by more than they were in 2016 to win Pennsylvania, and even if he does, he still has to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Florida to even stand a chance. Biden has way more room for error.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Ok but Biden's ony up 4 points in Pennsylvania, and the polls would have to be off by more than they were in 2016 to win Pennsylvania, and even if he does, he still has to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Florida to even stand a chance. Biden has way more room for error.

IDK, Nate Silver said it not me.

 

The states you mentioned are all locked up for Trump imo other than Georgia. 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

IDK, Nate Silver said it not me.

 

The states you mentioned are all locked up for Trump imo other than Georgia. 

If that small margin of Trump leading (and he's not even leading in FL, AZ, or GA), then the entire rust belt is "locked up" for Biden.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

If that small margin of Trump leading (and he's not even leading in FL, AZ, or GA), then the entire rust belt is "locked up" for Biden.

I don't follow Nate Silver given how badly he mismanaged 2016.. any poll that says Trump isn't leading in Florida is disingenuous 

 

In general any mainstream poll you need to add at minimum a +4 Trump bump for the Shy Trump Voter

 

we'll see Tuesday! 

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5 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I don't follow Nate Silver given how badly he mismanaged 2016.. any poll that says Trump isn't leading in Florida is disingenuous 

 

In general any mainstream poll you need to add at minimum a +4 Trump bump for the Shy Trump Voter

 

we'll see Tuesday! 

You'll see. We already saw.

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

We already saw in 2016 buddy 🤣

 

I wish I was on this board back in 2016  

A lot of us entertained the realm of possibility concerning a Trump presidency. I forget if I did but in particular @vcczar gave him a good chance and @TheMiddlePolitical I think actually called Trump's victory in the rust belt super accurately.

However no one who predicted him winning in 2016 says that today. There's no chance.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

A lot of us entertained the realm of possibility concerning a Trump presidency. I forget if I did but in particular @vcczar gave him a good chance and @TheMiddlePolitical I think actually called Trump's victory in the rust belt super accurately.

However no one who predicted him winning in 2016 says that today. There's no chance.

That's interesting, but I'm sure the other 90% of this board was predicting a blowout for Clinton. Remember, "There is no path to 270"? 

 

And to my knowledge I believe @admin_270 is giving Trump very strong odds of winning. 

 

We'll see!! 🤣 Don't say I didn't warn you 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

That's interesting, but I'm sure the other 90% of this board was predicting a blowout for Clinton. Remember, "There is no path to 270"? 

 

And to my knowledge I believe @admin_270 is giving Trump very strong odds of winning. 

 

We'll see!! 🤣 Don't say I didn't warn you 

Don't get me wrong, I prefer Trump's policies to Biden's, but there's no chance.

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