Election Confidence Poll

[vcczar 1,277]

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[Actinguy 862]

I'm 60% Biden wins the electoral vote -- but about 80% sure Trump wins the bullshit he'll pull after the election.

[superezione 49]

90% sure Biden wins an election that doesn't have any fuckery. The likelihood of fuckery, most likely with mail-in votes being rejected/cancelled in swing states, brings it down to 80%

[Reagan04 661]

I’m honestly not nearly as worried about any shenanigans as y’all are. The support for overturning an election just isn’t there. If Trump loses by a non-contestable margin then he’ll just sit in office for the last 3 months and drop Bombs for Biden and set up his next phase in life.

[PoliticalPundit 373]

Trump will win this, and frankly it will be close but decisive. By 1am we will all know Trump won. 

[jnewt 37]

2 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I'm 60% Biden wins the electoral vote -- but about 80% sure Trump wins the bullshit he'll pull after the election.

Yea, I'm about 60% sure Trump wins the election "fairly", and 90% sure that if Biden wins, a significant portion of votes will be invalidated which will hand the election to Trump.

[PoliticalPundit 373]

3 minutes ago, jnewt said:

Yea, I'm about 60% sure Trump wins the election "fairly", and 90% sure that if Biden wins, a significant portion of votes will be invalidated which will hand the election to Trump.

Biden didnt do anything this campaign

 

If they lose its bc he hid 6 policy speeches in Delaware 

[superezione 49]

50 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump will win this, and frankly it will be close but decisive. By 1am we will all know Trump won. 

If Trump wins, we won't know until at least midday Wednesday, as Florida is the only key state that we'll know for sure on election night most likely.

[billay 163]

2 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I'm 60% Biden wins the electoral vote -- but about 80% sure Trump wins the bullshit he'll pull after the election.

Can you be more specific?

[billay 163]

I voted 80% Biden.

 

What concerns me the most is while Trumps handling of the pandemic I continually hear what Biden will do about it and really the only difference is the attitude in which they speak.  Neither obviously can cure the virus and more rapid testing is good but it's not going to stop it so that's kind of a 0 to me.

However with the recent stories of some of the ugly things Trump got away with you can argue he did it before he was president and there is no proof a Biden administration would do anything to change that and it's not just Trump but government interference helped create sleezeballs like Trump and I'm sure hundreds if not thousands more.

Also another puzzling thing on this board is seeing the cheering of both establishments that tend to have neo-conservative thinking on foreign policy and without question Biden will return us to that which in the long run only makes the country that much more unsafen

 

[PoliticalPundit 373]

17 minutes ago, superezione said:

If Trump wins, we won't know until at least midday Wednesday, as Florida is the only key state that we'll know for sure on election night most likely.

If Trump wins

It'll be obvious to 90% of this board

 

and sure by mid Wednesday everyone will announce it.

 

But we'll know by like 11:30-1:30AM EST that Trump won potentially on the board by Tuesday/Early Wednesday morning. 

[Defiant 84]

Assuming no successful shenanigans, and assuming no huge OctoberNovember surprise  comes out in the next few days (that eclipses the covid spike) - and I'm doubtful of either possibility - then I think there's a 95+% of Biden winning.

[Reagan04 661]

33 minutes ago, billay said:

so another puzzling thing on this board is seeing the cheering of both establishments that tend to have neo-conservative thinking on foreign policy and without question Biden will return us to that which in the long run only makes the country that much more unsafen

Very few of us actually subscribe to this line of thinking.

[billay 163]

13 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Very few of us actually subscribe to this line of thinking.

So tell me this..... does that mean that sort of line of thinking is wrong? I feel in this country part of the problem is when we think outside the box = wrong it's easier to just support a party line of thinking because let's be honest those who claim to think outside the box are usually conspiracy theorist with some bat shit crazy line of thinking.

[Wiw 92]

4 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

I’m honestly not nearly as worried about any shenanigans as y’all are. The support for overturning an election just isn’t there. If Trump loses by a non-contestable margin then he’ll just sit in office for the last 3 months and drop Bombs for Biden and set up his next phase in life.

Hopefully not literal bombs!

[Actinguy 862]

5 hours ago, billay said:

I voted 80% Biden.

 

What concerns me the most is while Trumps handling of the pandemic I continually hear what Biden will do about it and really the only difference is the attitude in which they speak.  Neither obviously can cure the virus and more rapid testing is good but it's not going to stop it so that's kind of a 0 to me.

However with the recent stories of some of the ugly things Trump got away with you can argue he did it before he was president and there is no proof a Biden administration would do anything to change that and it's not just Trump but government interference helped create sleezeballs like Trump and I'm sure hundreds if not thousands more.

Also another puzzling thing on this board is seeing the cheering of both establishments that tend to have neo-conservative thinking on foreign policy and without question Biden will return us to that which in the long run only makes the country that much more unsafen

 

One promotes the science, one laughs at it.  That’s the difference, on the COVID front.

Yep, Presidents aren’t going to be the scientists who cure the disease, or the soldiers who win the war, or the economists who pull us back from financial collapse, etc.

But they do choose who to listen to, and what to do with that information.

Biden listens to the experts.  Trump listens to the sycophants.

[Actinguy 862]

5 hours ago, billay said:Also another puzzling thing on this board is seeing the cheering of both establishments that tend to have neo-conservative thinking on foreign policy and without question Biden will return us to that which in the long run only makes the country that much more unsafen

 

You think the foreign policy we’ve had for almost 80 years (post WWII) is making us “that much more unsafe”?

I don’t know how old you are, but in my 37 years, I’ve NEVER had to fear for my life against foreign attack.  Even on 9/11, when I was 18 years old, I watched with a mix of anger, horror, and sorrow — but I didn’t worry that it was going to keep happening.  And...nineteen years later...that’s held up so far.

Now, if you come from an era where you had to practice hiding under your desk for protection from a nuclear strike, then I get it.  But failing that, this foreign policy has kept you pretty damned safe your entire life.

[Edouard 124]

The best for Trump is 279 in my opinion.

While the best for Biden is above 400.

We are in a 2008 scenario. Yep in 2008 Barack Obama was also fearing to lose due to a tie, but he got a landslide.

[Berg2036 64]

We will have a very good idea on whos ahead in FL, NC, and MN on election night because they have been able to count ballots. Thirsdays Minnesota extentsion to accept absentee or mail in ballots which there is a big difference in this state was overturned so we have to have your ballot by 8 pm election night. Horrible for all us counting because at least where I work we were okay with being able to count wednesday till the following tuesday which not we have to get all our absentee and mail in ballots(15 ish thousand) counted by election night. If Trump matches '16 in percent then its a toss up if Trump wins in MN its game over for Biden because if Biden doesnt carry MN then I can not see how Biden will run the table in MI, PA, or WI. I also think controll of the Senate will be known election night.

[vcczar 1,277]

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Won't be on for the rest of the day, except maybe just to read stuff, but here's my quick post for today. 

Comparing Biden's current polling avg with Clinton's final polls in 2016

• Clinton was leading between 2-4% in the polls in the final days. Biden is between 7-9%. Clinton's polls showed tightening, while Biden is holding. Not good for Trump. 
• Biden's 2020 margin AVG compared to 2016 Clinton in the last polls (Clinton's aren't polling avg's. I couldn't find those. Feel free to post if you do find them). For the most part, this shows the polls will have to be much more off for Trump to win in many more states:
  • AZ: +5 Biden
  • FL: +6 Biden
  • GA: +9 Biden
  • IA: +8 Biden
  • MI: +11 Biden  
  • MN: +2 Clinton
  • MO: virtual tie
  • MT: +5 Biden
  • NV: +6 Biden
  • NH: virtual tie
  • NC: +2 Biden
  • OH: +6 Biden
  • PA: +1 Clinton
  • SC: +3 Biden
  • TX: +13 Biden
  • WI: +1 Biden

[Reagan04 661]

At this point it’s just Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that concern me.

[Defiant 84]

21 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

• Biden's 2020 margin AVG compared to 2016 Clinton in the last polls (Clinton's aren't polling avg's. I couldn't find those. Feel free to post if you do find them). For the most part, this shows the polls will have to be much more off for Trump to win in many more states:

RCP should have polling averages.  But... are you using Clinton v Trump polls, or are you using polls that include third parties?

[Defiant 84]

Fivethrityeight also has the polling averages for 2016.  Go to the applicable state page  and then go down to the "From polls to forecast" section, where the first thing is the "Polling average"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/

[Actinguy 862]

17 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

At this point it’s just Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that concern me.

Mine is PA and NV.

Theyre solid if you just look at Biden vs Trump.  But when you add third parties, it shifts below my comfort zone.

[Defiant 84]

OK, here are the margins in the final polling averages from fivethirtyeight (as I mentioned above) from 2016 with the current averages in fivethirtyeight.  Margin in 2016, margin in 2020 and the change between them.  All in Biden's direction except for SC.

 

AZ: -1.7 for Clinton, +3.1 for Biden, 4.8 to Biden
FL: +1.3 for Clinton, +2.1 for Biden, 0.8 to Biden
GA: -3.7 for Clinton, +1.6 for Biden, 5.3 to Biden
IA: -3.1 for Clinton, +0.1 for Biden, 3.2 to Biden
MI: +4.1 for Clinton, +8.8 for Biden, 4.7 to Biden
MN: +7.3 for  Clinton, +8.9 for Biden, 1.6 to Biden
MO: -10.3 for Clinton, -6.4 for Biden, 3.9 to Biden
MT: -14.6 for Clinton, -5.1 for Biden, 9.5 to Biden
NV: +1.1 for Clinton, +5.8 for Biden, 4.7 to Biden
NH: +4.2 for Clinton, +11.1 for Biden, 6.9 to Biden
NC: +1.3 for Clinton, +2.4 for Biden, 1.1 to Biden
OH: -1.6 for Clinton, -0.9 for Biden, 0.7 to Biden
PA: +3.9 for Clinton, +5.1 for Biden, 1.2 to Biden
SC: -7 for Clinton, -7.8 for Biden, 0.8 to Clinton
TX: -7.5 for Clinton, -1 for Biden, 6.5 to Biden
WI: +5.9 for Clinton, +8.6 for Biden, 2.7 to Biden