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State of the Race: 4 Days Left


vcczar
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Day 4 Poll  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. See my prediction map and write up, then answer, "Who wins if the election is held today?"

  2. 2. Who do you hope wins the election out of the two major nominees?

  3. 3. Several states have already surpassed 2016 voting numbers, and we haven't even had Election Day voting yet. Which party is more favored by high turn out, if you had to pick one?

  4. 4. Does Pres. Trump's low approval (avg of 42 to 44%) and high disapproval (avg of 52 to 54%) matter in this election?

  5. 5. Data is showing higher than normal levels of youth voting (ages 18-29) in battleground states. Which party is more favored by this kind of high turnout, if you had to pick one?



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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I still think Trump is likely ahead in Iowa, but this poll is just bullshit, and I'm really disappointed in the Register. 15% lead on Finkenauer? Hell no. That's just wrong. No one's won Iowa's 1st by 15 points in...well, 8 years, but it was the Democrat who won it. 

I've been a staunch defender of the Iowa Poll for a while. This just broke my confidence in it. If they would've had a Dem 15 points ahead too, I would've said no way. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are swing districts. I can't say it enough: this is wrong.

I dont follow them so cant comment, but now you know how I feel about virtually every poll 😂

 

I dont care if Trump wins by .05% as long as he wins I'm good, but don't underestimate the shy Trump voter as I've been saying. 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

People have voted in 2018 too, and they elected Finkenauer by 6 points. I still think it's very plausible (majority opinion) that Trump wins Iowa, but they really screwed up on CD 1. Like astronomically bad. It'll probably be at least 20 points off, if not more. She's a fairly popular local Rep with some strong moderate credentials. Very Iowan lol. 

You're very lucky to live in Iowa and able to significantly influence the nomination every 4 years..

 

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regardless of C1 or whatever this is a BAD SIGN for Biden  @Hestia11

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

 

"“Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trump’s 21-point lead among men. But today, Biden’s lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.”" 

 

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4 hours ago, Actinguy said:

Interesting article on this topic.

...which I can’t figure out how to link on my phone. Dangit.

Anyway, they say it’s actually difficult to tell because Trump chronically lies, claiming “biggest rally ever” when he’s only got a few thousand gathered. But they say it looks like Trump’s biggest rally this year was 15,000.  His biggest rally in 2016 was 30,000.  Of course, difference could be COVID based.

 

comparatively, Obama’s biggest crowd 75,000.

 

4 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Definitely. 😉

 

4 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

I thought we were supposed to be getting better at fact-based arguments. A very misleading statement. One that was gobbled up by those that supported that point of view, as well. 

 

4 hours ago, CPE said:

Neither Wisconsin or Michigan report party affiliations with the returned ballots.  Only certain states declare party affiliation alongside returned totals.  I have seen people using TargetSmart for modeled data, but I would be wary about taking anything found there too seriously considering that it is modeled data after all.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

 

On 10/30/2020 at 8:29 AM, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Here's the updated prediction map. Better day for Trump than Biden.:

  • Arizona flips from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • Florida moves from Tilt R to Leans R
  • George flips from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • Iowa moves from Tilt D to Lean R *Trump gain*
  • Minnesota moves from Tilt D to Lean D
  • Nevada moves from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt D to Lean R *Trump gain*
  • Ohio moves from Safe R to Likely R
  • Wisconsin moves from Leans D to Likely D

This is Trump's best showing since I started the new prediction map. Next update will be Monday, which will also be final prediction map. This final prediction map will not follow my algorithm completely. I'll post my algorithm map, but then I will also post my personal prediction map, which will probably look better for Biden than this algorithm, which might be too Trump-friendly. 

bx3ky.png

 

On 10/30/2020 at 8:36 AM, Edouard said:

Thank you for all the job you have done on this election !

For the model, I am almost certain that Trump won't flip Nevada.

I think I am open minded and I believe that the "best" scenario for Trump would be to only lose Michigan and Wisconsin while keeping one of the two congressional districts, which would put him at 279 for him and 259 for Biden.

This is for me his best map to get, a map in which he retains Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa.

 

 

On 10/30/2020 at 8:49 AM, Zenobiyl said:

Trump’s approval has remained nearly stagnant since he began his presidency. For that reason I don’t think his approval rating makes any difference on the result.

 

On 10/30/2020 at 8:51 AM, Defiant said:

High turnout tends to help Democrats, but it's not an absolute rule.  There have been low turnout elections where Democrats have won (1996), and high turnout elections where Republicans have won (2004, 2016).

 

On 10/30/2020 at 9:22 AM, Cenzonico said:

The day draws closer and closer...

 

On 10/30/2020 at 10:09 AM, TheMiddlePolitical said:

This is actually my exact prediction map rn, Bravo! @vcczar

A really scary thought, if anyone dissatisfied horribly ENOUGH with the election results thinks of it - Guy Fawkes day is two days after this year's U.S. Election Day...

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I try to avoid obsessing over individual individual polls (even ones from good pollsters like this one is), especially if it's not consistent with most of the polling. (Same with the Biden +17 WI poll from earlier this week).

Yeah, it could be the sign of a shift in the race in that state.  Or it could be a sign that it's an outlier.   But if I would to obsess over every poll, I would drive myself crazy.  Well, crazier.  

That said, while I would normally just respond to something like this as "let's wait for the next polls, to see if this is really a shift or just a temporary aberration", I'm not sure if there will be any more polling of Iowa before Election Day.  So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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15 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm really fired up about this lmao.

If you want a picture of just how much of an outlier (or how wrong this is, here you go)

image.png.4417289047295674dab3b3a069df697d.png

They screwed up the first district. All three others are very much possible, but they dropped the ball on CD 1.

Here's something to remember though. A person can vote for Trump and a Democrat for House at the same time.  Just look at Kentucky's 6th District for instance.  Trump destroyed Clinton in it in 2016, but that was a swing election in 2018.  While I agree that 15% is likely too much, it would not be a shock for him to win Iowa's 1st District while Finkenauer still gets elected.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Piittsburgh Post-Gazette, largest Pittsburgh newspaper, endorses Trump.

Butler is just north of Pittsburgh.

https://triblive.com/local/regional/trump-nears-end-of-campaign-with-boisterous-rally-near-butler/

3186624_web1_AP20305826663292.jpg

Seems kind of late to be endorsing, what with the millions of votes already cast...

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Nate Silver!

"Moreover, because polling errors are somewhat correlated from state to state, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he would no longer be a favorite in states such as Florida and Georgia — where he’s narrowly ahead now — because it would be a sign that Trump had outperformed his polls again. Of course, this only goes so far:"

 

PA is the key and Silver basically has said if PA goes for Trump then he gives Trump the better odds to win... funny how he goes from 10% to.. at least a 51% so quickly 

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