Jump to content
270soft Forum

State of the Race: 4 Days Left


vcczar
 Share

Day 4 Poll  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. See my prediction map and write up, then answer, "Who wins if the election is held today?"

  2. 2. Who do you hope wins the election out of the two major nominees?

  3. 3. Several states have already surpassed 2016 voting numbers, and we haven't even had Election Day voting yet. Which party is more favored by high turn out, if you had to pick one?

  4. 4. Does Pres. Trump's low approval (avg of 42 to 44%) and high disapproval (avg of 52 to 54%) matter in this election?

  5. 5. Data is showing higher than normal levels of youth voting (ages 18-29) in battleground states. Which party is more favored by this kind of high turnout, if you had to pick one?



Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Cops on the scene declined to take action.  Apparently their desire for "law and order" doesn't run that deep.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden couldn't have massive in-person rallies for most of the campaign because he can't consistently draw massive numbers of people (perhaps he could in the last few days though - especially if it's him and Obama, say).

Hillary drew big crowds despite being “unlikable.”  You think Biden is less liked than Hillary?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Actinguy said:

Hillary drew big crowds despite being “unlikable.”  You think Biden is less liked than Hillary?

There's clearly significantly less enthusiasm for Biden than Clinton.

 

I don't like Clinton, but I'd much rather go see her in person (a charismatic force and potential 1st women president) than see Slow Joe talk for 25 minutes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

I'm curious - what was the biggest crowd Hillary drew without having other political superstars (such as Obama) or pop stars giving a free concert?

A quick google suggests it might have been this event in Columbus, Oct 2016.  Officially 18,500 though the report I read said some thought it was only 10,000.

image.thumb.jpeg.b07d35cb526d56be0ef330e581b9fc50.jpeg

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

A quick google suggests it might have been this event in Columbus, Oct 2016.  Officially 18,500 though the report I read said some thought it was only 10,000.

image.thumb.jpeg.b07d35cb526d56be0ef330e581b9fc50.jpeg

Ya, that might have been the biggest one. Says it had a 'celebrity DJ' playing music beforehand - no idea if that was a significant draw.

To your original point, I think H. Clinton had more people who were enthusiastic about her candidacy than Biden does - even though she is less likable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I'm curious - what was the biggest crowd Hillary drew without having other political superstars (such as Obama) or pop stars giving a free concert?

Interesting article on this topic.

...which I can’t figure out how to link on my phone. Dangit.

Anyway, they say it’s actually difficult to tell because Trump chronically lies, claiming “biggest rally ever” when he’s only got a few thousand gathered. But they say it looks like Trump’s biggest rally this year was 15,000.  His biggest rally in 2016 was 30,000.  Of course, difference could be COVID based.

 

comparatively, Obama’s biggest crowd 75,000.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

But they say it looks like Trump’s biggest rally this year was 15,000.

That's interesting - I read a news article just recently in which the journalist claims 25,000. But these estimates are always tricky to ascertain unless you have established seating (an arena, say) and the place is full - campaigns often given overestimates and journalists often aren't that good at estimating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

And that's acceptable behavior? Can't we just let campaigns get to their locations in peace? 

Also do you have a link that they shut down all Texas operations? I've tried to find it and I've only seen that they shut it down in areas. 

 

41 minutes ago, pilight said:

Cops on the scene declined to take action.  Apparently their desire for "law and order" doesn't run that deep.

This kind of reminds me of old footage from the Zimbabwean 2008 election (I can't remember if it was Presidential or Parliamentary) where Movement for Democratic Change (the biggest opposition party in Zimbabwe) leader Morgan Tsvangirai was heckled at three consecutive campaign stops by Pro-Mugabe, Pro-ZANU-PF crowds, and the Zimbabwean Police stood there and made no action, even jeering Tsvangirai his MDC campaign staff, and when a formal, written report was made later, Tsvangirai and the MDC were actually slapped with a fine for "causing a disturbance." Is this the path of U.S. election conduct - Zimbabwe? It worries me greatly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

what do the Wisconsin and Michigan numbers say so far?

 If Trump wins Florida and can steal Nevada I'll take it. 

 

I still like Trump's odds in PA.. but it will be close. 4 PA rallies today says it all, they're going all in there 

Neither Wisconsin or Michigan report party affiliations with the returned ballots.  Only certain states declare party affiliation alongside returned totals.  I have seen people using TargetSmart for modeled data, but I would be wary about taking anything found there too seriously considering that it is modeled data after all.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

I thought we were supposed to be getting better at fact-based arguments. A very misleading statement.

You haven't shown it's misleading at all, much less very misleading. The source for the comment was a tweet by someone claiming that was the case, your article corroborates that it's at least partially true, there's no evidence I've seen yet that suggests it's false. Happy to be corrected.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Where is proof that all Texas campaigning is done? I'll wait.

Again, happy to have more clarity on this - a quick search suggests you're right that the initial comment wasn't accurate.

AFAICT, the events canceled involved local campaigners (Wendy Davis among others). Presumably they're going to still campaign in the next few days.

I don't know if Harris or Biden have any events scheduled in TX in the next few days. I believe Harris was actually there Fri.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Does anyone remember if Romney was "closing the gap" on Obama in 2012? From what I recall it wasn't the case... 

 

Trump in both elections has continually narrowed the gap the closer it got to election. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...