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State of the Race: 4 Days Left


Day 4 Poll  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. See my prediction map and write up, then answer, "Who wins if the election is held today?"

  2. 2. Who do you hope wins the election out of the two major nominees?

  3. 3. Several states have already surpassed 2016 voting numbers, and we haven't even had Election Day voting yet. Which party is more favored by high turn out, if you had to pick one?

  4. 4. Does Pres. Trump's low approval (avg of 42 to 44%) and high disapproval (avg of 52 to 54%) matter in this election?

  5. 5. Data is showing higher than normal levels of youth voting (ages 18-29) in battleground states. Which party is more favored by this kind of high turnout, if you had to pick one?



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Here's the updated prediction map. Better day for Trump than Biden.:

  • Arizona flips from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • Florida moves from Tilt R to Leans R
  • George flips from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • Iowa moves from Tilt D to Lean R *Trump gain*
  • Minnesota moves from Tilt D to Lean D
  • Nevada moves from Tilt D to Tilt R *Trump gain*
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt D to Lean R *Trump gain*
  • Ohio moves from Safe R to Likely R
  • Wisconsin moves from Leans D to Likely D

This is Trump's best showing since I started the new prediction map. Next update will be Monday, which will also be final prediction map. This final prediction map will not follow my algorithm completely. I'll post my algorithm map, but then I will also post my personal prediction map, which will probably look better for Biden than this algorithm, which might be too Trump-friendly. 

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Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum. I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Ro

You know it’s bad when Patine is the one defusing the flame war with an innocuous comment.

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Thank you for all the job you have done on this election !

For the model, I am almost certain that Trump won't flip Nevada.

I think I am open minded and I believe that the "best" scenario for Trump would be to only lose Michigan and Wisconsin while keeping one of the two congressional districts, which would put him at 279 for him and 259 for Biden.

This is for me his best map to get, a map in which he retains Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa.

 

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Trump’s approval has remained nearly stagnant since he began his presidency. For that reason I don’t think his approval rating makes any difference on the result.

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High turnout tends to help Democrats, but it's not an absolute rule.  There have been low turnout elections where Democrats have won (1996), and high turnout elections where Republicans have won (2004, 2016).

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Your algorithm always scares me because it has a lot of swinging around of states that likely isn't doing too much changing. Polling I've seen has been rather stagnant, and I think we'll end up seeing a largely unchanged race by Election Day. 

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Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum.

I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state on 538 and give Trump a 2% handicap to account for polling bias. Even with that advantage, he loses 279-259, though it would be extremely close in Pennsylvania. So, my current prediction is that Biden wins on a very small margin, but Trump still has a real chance of victory with a small improvement in Pennsylvania. It could get ugly if PA is the tipping point and it ends up being really close there.

I was torn on the higher turnout question. It really depends where that turnout is coming from. Is it coming from white working class and rural voters who usually don't care about politics, as was the theory in 2016? Or is it coming from minority communities and young people? The first scenario helps the Republicans and the second scenario helps the Democrats. Ultimately, I think both might be true, which results in an advantage for the Democrats since the pool of young and minority voters who didn't vote in 2016 is probably larger than the number of white working class voters who didn't vote in 2016.

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So far, nearly 84 million Americans have voted. That's almost 61% of 2016 turnout. I think everyone anticipates greater than 2016 turnout by now ;)

If election day turnout lags behind early voting (where it makes it, say, 55-60% early voting, 45-40% election day), I think Democrats should be anticipating a good night. If it's closer to 50-50, I'd say they should be more concerned. Not a hard and fast rule, but a lot of votes for Biden are (presumably) already bagged.

I think the electoral map is going to fundamentally change on November 3rd. Both the Midwest and Sun Belt are going to be close. I may be a bit out of the box, but I am beginning to think Biden may pick up Texas/Arizona more than he would pick up Florida/Ohio. That's simply through the trends I've seen in the early vote so far. 

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Oh, one possible way that high turnout could help both parties is downballot in the "solid" states of the other party.  So Republicans down ballot in blue states where they normally don't bother to vote because they have no chance of winning at the state level, and Democrats down ballot in red states.

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12 minutes ago, Vavent said:

Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum.

I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state on 538 and give Trump a 2% handicap to account for polling bias. Even with that advantage, he loses 279-259, though it would be extremely close in Pennsylvania. So, my current prediction is that Biden wins on a very small margin, but Trump still has a real chance of victory with a small improvement in Pennsylvania. It could get ugly if PA is the tipping point and it ends up being really close there.

I was torn on the higher turnout question. It really depends where that turnout is coming from. Is it coming from white working class and rural voters who usually don't care about politics, as was the theory in 2016? Or is it coming from minority communities and young people? The first scenario helps the Republicans and the second scenario helps the Democrats. Ultimately, I think both might be true, which results in an advantage for the Democrats since the pool of young and minority voters who didn't vote in 2016 is probably larger than the number of white working class voters who didn't vote in 2016.

Welcome!  I have a similar point of view.  I'm rooting for Biden, but give Trump a handicap on the polls.  I'm not comfortable calling a state Biden's unless I see an average of a 5% lead, after factoring in 3rd parties. 

Under that system, PA (4.6%), Nevada (4%) and Minnesota (4%) are all Trump's.  That's 295 Trump - 243 Biden.

Naturally, I hope I'm wrong.  In fact, I've placed a monetary bet on Biden winning by a margin of  29-50 electoral votes.

But my confidence in that bet falls every day.

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This is actually my exact prediction map rn, Bravo! @vcczar

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Except MN Is solid D tbh

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1 hour ago, Vavent said:

Hi everyone, first time I'm posting in the general forum.

I am less optimistic for Trump than I was a week ago. My election prediction method is simple- I take the polling average for every state on 538 and give Trump a 2% handicap to account for polling bias. Even with that advantage, he loses 279-259, though it would be extremely close in Pennsylvania. So, my current prediction is that Biden wins on a very small margin, but Trump still has a real chance of victory with a small improvement in Pennsylvania. It could get ugly if PA is the tipping point and it ends up being really close there.

I was torn on the higher turnout question. It really depends where that turnout is coming from. Is it coming from white working class and rural voters who usually don't care about politics, as was the theory in 2016? Or is it coming from minority communities and young people? The first scenario helps the Republicans and the second scenario helps the Democrats. Ultimately, I think both might be true, which results in an advantage for the Democrats since the pool of young and minority voters who didn't vote in 2016 is probably larger than the number of white working class voters who didn't vote in 2016.

 

1 hour ago, Edouard said:

Thank you for all the job you have done on this election !

For the model, I am almost certain that Trump won't flip Nevada.

I think I am open minded and I believe that the "best" scenario for Trump would be to only lose Michigan and Wisconsin while keeping one of the two congressional districts, which would put him at 279 for him and 259 for Biden.

This is for me his best map to get, a map in which he retains Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa.

 

Happy that we are linked in opinion (essentially on PA) :D 

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

Your algorithm always scares me because it has a lot of swinging around of states that likely isn't doing too much changing. Polling I've seen has been rather stagnant, and I think we'll end up seeing a largely unchanged race by Election Day. 

Yeah, it's because the momentum keeps going up and down in a wide direction of areas. Since it is based off trends and averages, it will flip around so long as polls are going back and forth. 

For instance, if Trump gets a poll that lowers Biden's average in Wisconsin, and Trump also sees his approval improve, Generic Dem poll decreases, Biden's favorability lowers a bit, and the national polling average decreases for Biden, then Trump surges in a state, according to my algorithm. This is one reason this algorithm is very Trump friendly. A pundit, would just look at the polling average and say, "Biden is winning this state." Mine has a lot of loopholes and volatility that can allow Trump to appear strong. 

Do I think my map is accurate, not completely. It's mainly a tool to show that I shouldn't be overconfident in a Biden victory. My personal prediction map, which I mention in original post, will deviate from this algorithm prediction map, mainly because I think the polls will be closer to accurate than I think my complex algorithm will be. However, I'll use this map in order to help me make my map, so it will probably show a more competitive prediction than the pundits will show.

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8 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Mo. > Trump > Rally > NC, PA, MI (x2), WI

Smart strategy. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Interesting what's not on Biden's schedule, NC or FL.

Wonder where everyone will be Election Day. I bet Biden in PA but I'm not sure

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20 minutes ago, admin_270 said:
20 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sat. > Trump > Rally > PA (x3)

 

4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

4 of the states Trump is going to on Sun. have possibly close Senate elections. 

MI, IA, NC, GA

Sun. > Trump > Rally > MI, IA, NC, GA, FL

He's fighting for his life. 

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