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Economy+Electoral History+Candidates Mix Algorithm


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I created some time ago an algorithm that calculates the % of a candidate winning any state from USA, after analysing 1932-2016 economical + electoral + candidates data, it uses 10 variables and produces the democrat victory possibility in every state. I wasnt expecting to use it, but today we had news about usa economy, so I have time to update it. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
I seen it in Michigan and the algorithm is right in 18 from last 22 elections state predicts (all except 1940, 1944, 1976, 2016), without using any polls.

Variables for Democrats are...
1 - Employment % from last 5 years (2016-2019+2020 projections)
2 - Negative GDP Growth % from last 5 years + 100
3 - Negative Inflation Rate % from last 5 years + 100
4 - Incumbent Democrats ? If yes for 1 mandate, 1, if 2 mandates, 2, etc... If not for 1 mandate -1, if not for 2 mandates -2, etc...
5 - Incumbent Democrat President? If yes 1, if not 0, if Republican incumbent -1.
6 - Democrat State? If yes by 1 election 1 , if not by 1 election -1, if yes for 3 mandates 3, if not for 5, -5.
7 - Last Election State Results Dems/Reps
8 - Last Election National Results Dems/Reps
9 - Election before State Results Dems/Reps 
10 - Election before National Results Dems/Reps

For 2020 the numbers are...

1.

95.3% 95.9% 96.1% 96.5% 92.4%                    

2.

98.3% 97.7% 97% 97.8% 99%

 


3. 

 

97.9 97.9 98.1 97.7 98.4


4. -1
5. -1

 

6. -1

7+8+9+10.

0.9952 1.0456 1.2125 1.0826


With my secret formula (that I will show if the algorithm does a good job). The Democrat probabilities of winning Michigan are 43.6% (I know that seems impossible, please dont take the algorithm very serious, its only a fun way of prediction, nothing to win or lose with it). After I will see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. this prediction is definitive, so I dont need to update it.

 

image.png.902d04186cc4d5546162ef1333d23f45.png

 

 

 


 

 

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2 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

Thanks!
image.png.e809354db33a72175a6c5fa2dd2bc828.png

Wisconsin, unfortunately is wrong 5 times in 22 elections, but predicts 2016 well, what is good.

When you do all the states, please make a map using 270towin.com. This visual example might be more fun than just seeing the data.

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I need to update everything, USA economy will down 3.5% this year and will not grow 1.0%, like I was thinking, I seen badly. So, that means Trump reelection is less probable.

OBS, Im confused, TradingEconomics talks about 1% growth by the end of the year.

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Changed some things in the model, added PublicDebt/GDP, changed the model to incumbent and not Democrats. Now we can see the % expected for Trump against Biden.
California will be blue.
Trump will have 55.46% Biden Result if USA economy would grow 1%, Inflation would be 1.6% public debt/GDP is 120%and unemplyment would be 7.6% in 1 January 2021.

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