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State of the Race: 5 Days Left


5 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See my map and write up for the map: Who wins if the election is today?

  2. 2. US shows historic GDP gains after the Covid Drop. Which of these align with your thoughts?

    • This is just the kind of last second news Trump needs to win! This news will see votes swerve in his direction as he sees momentum in the final days.
    • It might help Trump a little, but despite these gains, we are still far below pre-Covid levels, which means Trump fails the "are you better off 4 years ago" test.
    • The 33% GDP growth is faster than most economists predicted, which will align with Trump's message of the recovery, giving him more credibility on this topic.
    • Economists suggest "actual GDP growth" is a better metric, which shows only 7.4% growth. Trump's economic argument could be countered with this.
    • These gains are likely to be short-lived with Covid cases ticking back up. Trump's economic argument can be countered with this.
    • The record gains only exist because there was a record decline. It's like saying Usain Bolt is the fastest runner again once he takes his first step after having had a stroke.
    • Unemployment is still very high and people are still relying on government money to survive; this will diminish the economy helping Trump in this final week.
    • The economic report does not factor well-paying jobs, full-time or part-time work, etc. so it can't capture how middle class and lower middle class families are doing.
    • This GDP Report also shows that personal income fell in the third quarter. This number might be as important as the GDP #. Voters vote on a personal level not on a abstract GDP level.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Trump.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it won't make a difference.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Biden.
      0
  3. 3. Which kind of candidate would you be more likely to support?

    • Social and Economic Conservative who is a trans man and an atheist.
    • Social and Economic Liberal who is an Lutheran minister who has never made more than $40,000 a year.
  4. 4. If you were God, do you think you would be a more just and benevolent God than God?

    • It's impossible to be more just and benevolent than God.
    • Yes. They wouldn't be required to worship me. I wouldn't leave people defenseless in war, poverty, illness, and elsewhere. You'd see more people in heaven. In fact, life would pretty much be like heaven. No reason to test people if I can already predict how they'll respond.
    • No. I would seek more worship and would be willingly more unjust and less benevolent.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. Do you think the United States would become a better country if you were given the power to re-write the Constitution and it was automatically ratified?

    • Yes (why, please explain below)
    • No (why, please explain below)
    • I don't know, and I won't explain below.


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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Yup. I dont see anything that's changed significantly for Trump since 16 that helps him in that field. Could be wrong but I'm doubtful.

Hmm interesting. That's my biggest prediction even moreso than Trump winning the election.

 

Time will tell!! 5 days omgg 

 

Regardless I appreciate the ability to debate in the last few weeks without personal attacks, very classy :)

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... and also appoints conservative SC Justices.

I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks.  It's mostly been stable.  All of a sudden, today, there's a huge

Also, don't forget MN, IA and WI form a little bit of a trio in the Northern Midwest - it isn't too difficult to make a jump up to MN for a bit in time. It's worth it more than likely for the relative

Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

Hmm interesting. That's my biggest prediction even moreso than Trump winning the election.

 

Time will tell!! 5 days omgg 

 

Regardless I appreciate the ability to debate in the last few weeks without personal attacks, very classy :)

Cant wait for forum election night (day) lol. 

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2 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I admire Hestia at least debating me on points compared to you who just threw out personal attacks when they ran out of logical points. 

I understand you're simply summarizing your view of what has happened, but easy to interpret this as a personal attack. Go easy.

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I understand you're simply summarizing your view of what has happened, but easy to interpret this as a personal attack. Go easy.

Gotchu, though I found the post that was initially directed my way to be totally unnecessary and once again butting themselves into a conversation they are not involved in. 

 

if I'm not allowed to respond to someone going at me "think you're wasting your time with this one" then they shouldn't either. Thought we had established that.  Note: I didn't find it to be a personal attack, but if they're mentioning my name I should be allowed to respond in an equal manner. Fair is fair. 

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FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking."

 

See this is the shit that pisses me off about Nate Silver.

He gives the current odds a 89% CHANCE OF BIDEN WINNING

and an only 11% chance of Trump winning

 

And YET

If Trump wins they will call it, "surprising but not utterly shocking" and say they were correct bc they had him at 11% odds to win. 

 

"surprising but not utterly shocking" = maybe odds at 65% to 35% not 89% to 11%. Give me a fucking break. Such a trash website. 

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I'd encourage people who believe the polls to read this article. You don't have to agree with everything both of them are saying, but it's worth taking into consideration before popping the champagne on Tuesday :) They do a far better job of explaining the "Shy Trump" voter than me 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

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7 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking."

 

See this is the shit that pisses me off about Nate Silver.

He gives the current odds a 89% CHANCE OF BIDEN WINNING

and an only 11% chance of Trump winning

 

And YET

If Trump wins they will call it, "surprising but not utterly shocking" and say they were correct bc they had him at 11% odds to win. 

 

"surprising but not utterly shocking" = maybe odds at 65% to 35% not 89% to 11%. Give me a fucking break. Such a trash website. 

I stopped respecting 538 after they tried to say that the were more right than everyone else on the 2016 election.  While a true statement, they were still incredibly off and should have just accepted that fact.

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