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State of the Race: 5 Days Left


5 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See my map and write up for the map: Who wins if the election is today?

  2. 2. US shows historic GDP gains after the Covid Drop. Which of these align with your thoughts?

    • This is just the kind of last second news Trump needs to win! This news will see votes swerve in his direction as he sees momentum in the final days.
    • It might help Trump a little, but despite these gains, we are still far below pre-Covid levels, which means Trump fails the "are you better off 4 years ago" test.
    • The 33% GDP growth is faster than most economists predicted, which will align with Trump's message of the recovery, giving him more credibility on this topic.
    • Economists suggest "actual GDP growth" is a better metric, which shows only 7.4% growth. Trump's economic argument could be countered with this.
    • These gains are likely to be short-lived with Covid cases ticking back up. Trump's economic argument can be countered with this.
    • The record gains only exist because there was a record decline. It's like saying Usain Bolt is the fastest runner again once he takes his first step after having had a stroke.
    • Unemployment is still very high and people are still relying on government money to survive; this will diminish the economy helping Trump in this final week.
    • The economic report does not factor well-paying jobs, full-time or part-time work, etc. so it can't capture how middle class and lower middle class families are doing.
    • This GDP Report also shows that personal income fell in the third quarter. This number might be as important as the GDP #. Voters vote on a personal level not on a abstract GDP level.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Trump.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it won't make a difference.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Biden.
      0
  3. 3. Which kind of candidate would you be more likely to support?

    • Social and Economic Conservative who is a trans man and an atheist.
    • Social and Economic Liberal who is an Lutheran minister who has never made more than $40,000 a year.
  4. 4. If you were God, do you think you would be a more just and benevolent God than God?

    • It's impossible to be more just and benevolent than God.
    • Yes. They wouldn't be required to worship me. I wouldn't leave people defenseless in war, poverty, illness, and elsewhere. You'd see more people in heaven. In fact, life would pretty much be like heaven. No reason to test people if I can already predict how they'll respond.
    • No. I would seek more worship and would be willingly more unjust and less benevolent.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. Do you think the United States would become a better country if you were given the power to re-write the Constitution and it was automatically ratified?

    • Yes (why, please explain below)
    • No (why, please explain below)
    • I don't know, and I won't explain below.


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... and also appoints conservative SC Justices.

I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks.  It's mostly been stable.  All of a sudden, today, there's a huge

Also, don't forget MN, IA and WI form a little bit of a trio in the Northern Midwest - it isn't too difficult to make a jump up to MN for a bit in time. It's worth it more than likely for the relative

33 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Hillary's campaign made the mistake of thinking the Blue Wall was solid, so I suspect that Biden's people are determined not to repeat that mistake. I don't believe that Biden is ahead by double digits in Blue Wall states, but I'm also skeptical of the notion that the polls are almost *all* wrong and that Trump is actually ahead in those states. 

Winning Florida would give him some insurance in case one of the Blue Wall states were to slip away, plus it gives him a positive election night storyline. My understanding is that they expect FL to finish almost all of its counting on election night, whereas MI, WI, and PA are likely to (a) take longer to count all the absentee/mail-in ballots, and (b) display a "red mirage" on election night whereby the initial numbers will reflect Election Day voting totals that may skew towards Trump. If he's already won Florida - a state that leans a bit more Republican - it will be harder for anyone to claim credibly that a later "blue shift" in the counting in MI, WI, and PA is reflective of vote fraud (which Trump and/or his allies may well try to do).

If Biden wins Florida the election is over, I dont care what trump says.

 

If trump wins PA (And Florida), same story. 

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Most interesting finding from debut : by 47%-29%, voters agree w/ the statement that "the news media looks down on people like me."
 
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Biden going to Minnesota is a MAJOR RED FLAG for his campaign. They know the polls are sliding.. Minnesota will be the new Wisconsin for the Trump campaign (as we all know Wisconsin is already for Trump this time around).
 
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Going to be another very close election, but decisive EC win for Trump imo. 
 
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A critically important cancellation. Trump needs every day and every extra rally - that's the advantage he has over Biden. The time is ticking

 

JUST IN: Trump campaign cancels rally in NC tonight— “Because of a wind advisory issued with gusts reaching 50 miles per hour and other weather conditions, the outdoor Fayetteville, NC rally has been postponed until Monday.”

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In regards to the last one, while I have wide-reaching ideas of how to make the country a better place, I doubt my ability to translate such ideas into legalese free of loopholes, and I therefore feel that I could only make things worse by attempting.

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Ari Fleischer laid out the rational for supporting Trump over Biden despite some obvious flaws.

"Washington politicians know how to posture perfectly, and Trump does not bother to posture at all.

Biden is also offensive. His shocking allegation during the 2012 campaign that Republicans under Mitt Romney desired to place African Americans “back in chains” was one of the worst and lowest race baiting statements ever made, not to mention it was blatantly untrue. The media largely gave him a pass over this. I will not. There is a lot about his conflicts of interest that we do not know because the media declines to dig into them.

Is Biden, who stated he never talked about Ukrainian energy firm Burisma with his son, lying about never meeting with its officials? Biden lied about receiving his full scholarship to law school and made false claims that he finished in the top half of his class when he finished near the bottom. He lied about his arrest in South Africa. He made false claims over pinning a Silver Star on a Navy captain despite claiming that it was the truth.

Biden is weak. He will not stand up to the left as he changed his positions with abortion and crime. He will not stand up to China. Given the fact that he conducted only one or two public events a day before the coronavirus, I have doubts in his ability to endure the burden of the presidency.

Democrats are now moving hard and fast to the left. Biden is not from the left wing of the party, but when liberals send him legislation to ban fossil fuels, create a national public option for health care, raise our taxes even higher, and redistribute income in a way that has never been done before, no one should count on his veto. He will not promise to veto packing the Supreme Court, or even turning Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia into blue states so Democrats can move onto packing the Senate.

Say what you will about Trump violating norms, he has never tried to redo the balance of power by irregular means. But his policies will last decades, no matter or, perhaps thanks to, his personality. His promises to confront China, appoint conservatives to the judiciary, and secure peace deals for Israel and its Arab neighbors are worthy of support. His policies with the economy did more to assist low income Americans with pay raises, which reduced the wealth gap far more than any idea to redistribute income. He helped people with the actions conducted in the private sector.

My choice in the 2020 general election is between a personally offensive outsider who signs good policies and a professionally offensive politician who will turn bad ideas into law. This is why I will vote for Trump."

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7 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

A higher % of registered Republicans will vote for Trump

than % of registered Democrats will vote for Biden

I agree. Enthusiasm for Biden seems to be very low given the fact it needed Warren staying in the race and Bloomberg collapsing before Super Tuesday for Biden to stay relevant in the Democratic primaries.

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36 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I agree. Enthusiasm for Biden seems to be very low given the fact it needed Warren staying in the race and Bloomberg collapsing before Super Tuesday for Biden to stay relevant in the Democratic primaries.

don't forget Obama begging Klobuchar and Buttigeg to drop out as well 

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Oct. 15 • Florida: Biden +4.2 • Pennsylvania: +7.1 • Michigan: +7.8 • Wisc: +7.6 • Arizona: +3.7 • NC: +3.2

 

Today • Florida: Biden +2.1 • Pennsylvania: +5.2 • Michigan: +8.1 • Wisc: +8.4 • Arizona: +2.7 • NC: +2.2

 

The media does such a disservice to the American people by acting like polls haven't shifted in their narrative. At this rate the final polls on Election Day (not final results but polls) could be: 

 

Florida: effectively tied (Trump win)

PA: +3 Biden (Trump win)

Michigan: 8-9 Biden (Give it to Biden)

Wisconsin: 9 Biden (don't believe this)

Arizona: 1.7 Biden (Trump win)

NC: 1.2 Biden (Trump win)

 

I agree Biden probably wins Michigan... 0 chance Trump loses Wisconsin. QUOTE ME IF I'M WRONG 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Maybe he won't strand them in the freezing cold again like he did in Omaha.

The crowds are just so massive that it takes time to transport them all. 😆

25,000 at that rally in particular.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

The crowds are just so massive that it takes time to transport them all. 😆

25,000 at that rally in particular.

Maybe if they paid the busses, they would've lol. It was bad planning all around. If they had enough busses to get people there, they should've had enough to bring them back. 

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Which one?

Many different understandings of 'God' that come from reading the Bible.

Any of the Biblical Gods that drown civilizations in floods or otherwise cause mass murder. 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Maybe if they paid the busses, they would've lol. It was bad planning all around. If they had enough busses to get people there, they should've had enough to bring them back. 

Ya, there were issues with the road.

"buses were having difficulty traveling through the access road to the rally site — which was “limited to one direction.”"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/28/omaha-trump-rally-thousands-attendees-stranded-cold-after-event/3760175001/

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Ya, there were issues with the road.

"buses were having difficulty traveling through the access road to the rally site — which was “limited to one direction.”"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/28/omaha-trump-rally-thousands-attendees-stranded-cold-after-event/3760175001/

Yeah, I live in the (roughly) surrounding area. Eppley doesn't have just a ton of room, and if people were leaving in their cars, it would bog down the area. 

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Any of the Biblical Gods that drown civilizations in floods or otherwise cause mass murder.

The premise in these stories from the OT is that the population is irredeemably wicked.

Whatever the stories in the OT say, though, the overwhelmingly clear message of the NT is that God loves humanity and will do whatever it takes to help them.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

The premise in these stories from the OT is that the population is irredeemably wicked.

Whatever the stories in the OT say, though, the overwhelmingly clear message of the NT is that God loves humanity and will do whatever it takes to help them.

Whatever it takes? Is he too powerless to make them not evil? God doesn't love humanity if he kills all but a handful of them. That is spin at its finest. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Whatever it takes? Is he too powerless to make them not evil? God doesn't love humanity if he kills all but a handful of them. That is spin at its finest.

Yes, "God so loved the world, that He sent his only begotten Son."

Yes, according to Christianity he has granted us free will, and that involves the possibility of evil.

"God doesn't love humanity if he kills all but a handful of them."

Sure, this is a major tension with the OT and NT - the God of wrath vs. the God of love. Again, the premise in these stories is those people were irredeemably wicked.

 

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We're not in 2012

In 2012 hurricane Sandy played a big role in keeping swing states to Barack Obama, and even back when him and Romney were neck and neck in national polls, I believe that Obama would have won without this event (maybe with less than 332 but not sure)

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