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State of the Race: 5 Days Left


5 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See my map and write up for the map: Who wins if the election is today?

  2. 2. US shows historic GDP gains after the Covid Drop. Which of these align with your thoughts?

    • This is just the kind of last second news Trump needs to win! This news will see votes swerve in his direction as he sees momentum in the final days.
    • It might help Trump a little, but despite these gains, we are still far below pre-Covid levels, which means Trump fails the "are you better off 4 years ago" test.
    • The 33% GDP growth is faster than most economists predicted, which will align with Trump's message of the recovery, giving him more credibility on this topic.
    • Economists suggest "actual GDP growth" is a better metric, which shows only 7.4% growth. Trump's economic argument could be countered with this.
    • These gains are likely to be short-lived with Covid cases ticking back up. Trump's economic argument can be countered with this.
    • The record gains only exist because there was a record decline. It's like saying Usain Bolt is the fastest runner again once he takes his first step after having had a stroke.
    • Unemployment is still very high and people are still relying on government money to survive; this will diminish the economy helping Trump in this final week.
    • The economic report does not factor well-paying jobs, full-time or part-time work, etc. so it can't capture how middle class and lower middle class families are doing.
    • This GDP Report also shows that personal income fell in the third quarter. This number might be as important as the GDP #. Voters vote on a personal level not on a abstract GDP level.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Trump.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it won't make a difference.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Biden.
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  3. 3. Which kind of candidate would you be more likely to support?

    • Social and Economic Conservative who is a trans man and an atheist.
    • Social and Economic Liberal who is an Lutheran minister who has never made more than $40,000 a year.
  4. 4. If you were God, do you think you would be a more just and benevolent God than God?

    • It's impossible to be more just and benevolent than God.
    • Yes. They wouldn't be required to worship me. I wouldn't leave people defenseless in war, poverty, illness, and elsewhere. You'd see more people in heaven. In fact, life would pretty much be like heaven. No reason to test people if I can already predict how they'll respond.
    • No. I would seek more worship and would be willingly more unjust and less benevolent.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. Do you think the United States would become a better country if you were given the power to re-write the Constitution and it was automatically ratified?

    • Yes (why, please explain below)
    • No (why, please explain below)
    • I don't know, and I won't explain below.


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... and also appoints conservative SC Justices.

I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks.  It's mostly been stable.  All of a sudden, today, there's a huge

Also, don't forget MN, IA and WI form a little bit of a trio in the Northern Midwest - it isn't too difficult to make a jump up to MN for a bit in time. It's worth it more than likely for the relative

3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

... and also appoints conservative SC Justices.

All of his Cabinet and Supreme Court picks are obviously provided for him by underlings, and he has little personal investment or vetting in the issue - if you look at the motley assembly of the entirety of those he's nominated or appointed as President (and the infamous revolving door Cabinet effect).

Except, of course, for Bannon and his family members.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sat. > Harris > Barnstorming > FL (x3)

Smart.

I don't think either campaign is really making bad decisions about where to campaign. Frequency for Biden could be better, but areas aren't awful.

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sat. > Harris > Barnstorming > FL (x3)

That's good, but not ideal. She should add at least a stop in NC or GA.

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Just now, vcczar said:

That's good, but not ideal. She should add at least a stop in NC or GA.

Biden was in GA yesterday. I think the play in Florida is more necessary.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

How are either of these necessary, unless Biden thinks he might lose blue wall states?

I think every campaign should be trying to expand the battlefield. If you focus on PA, MI, and WI exclusively, I think that you're going to shed votes in places like NC and FL needlessly. It's making that balance, trying to set up different plausible paths. I think Biden's smart if he thinks he may lose blue wall states - no one should think that any state within 10 percentage points is "in the bag". That kind of logical fallacy led to Clinton's loss in 2016. 

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5 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I think every campaign should be trying to expand the battlefield. If you focus on PA, MI, and WI exclusively, I think that you're going to shed votes in places like NC and FL needlessly. It's making that balance, trying to set up different plausible paths. I think Biden's smart if he thinks he may lose blue wall states - no one should think that any state within 10 percentage points is "in the bag". That kind of logical fallacy led to Clinton's loss in 2016. 

It's not in the bag, but it doesn't require much focus. Of course you can't completely ignore them when you dont even have a 10+ percentage lead in the polls for the state but it's necessary to make sure you keep your percentage and nothing more. The less you have to do with those states, the better.

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1 minute ago, NYConservative said:

It's not in the bag, but it doesn't require much focus. Of course you can't completely ignore them when you dont even have a 10+ percentage lead in the polls for the state but it's necessary to make sure you keep your percentage and nothing more. The less you have to do with those states, the better.

Yes, obviously, but the question was about Florida. That's a toss up state between +2 and -2 for any state. It's not the same as dropping a visit in New Hampshire or Minnesota. 

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I'll come back to question 5. Question 4 is impossible to answer because I don't believe God exists, so I couldn't place where he is currently on a benevolence scale. Not sure how anyone could say 'we'd see more people in heaven' either, I haven't seen anyone in heaven.

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Yes, obviously, but the question was about Florida. That's a toss up state between +2 and -2 for any state. It's not the same as dropping a visit in New Hampshire or Minnesota. 

Of course, but Florida overall right now isn't a massive gamechanger, if Biden keeps what he's focusing on and loses Florida he's still gaining. And once again, the less you need to do, the better.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Speaking of which,

Fri. > Biden > Barnstorming > IA, WI, MN.

(Some of these might be rallies.)

(I'm just happy he's going to three states :P ) Could be geographic closeness? I found out he's going to Des Moines, I'm busy on Friday otherwise I'd try to make it. Interesting he's going to Minnesota, though...I'd say he should go to Michigan, but he's going there on Saturday so maybe it is the best option? Not sure. Padding majorities is usually a good way to go anyway, even if you think you're safe. 

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Speaking of which,

Fri. > Biden > Barnstorming > IA, WI, MN.

(Some of these might be rallies.)

Damn it! The more basic my opponents the easier it is! C'mon man! Do I need to show you the deal?

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Reforms, even necessary ones, are not more important than the checks and balances in our government. For that reason I don’t think having sole control of the constitution would make the United States a better place.

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29 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Speaking of which,

Fri. > Biden > Barnstorming > IA, WI, MN.

(Some of these might be rallies.)

The fact he's going to MN probably worries me more than any of his movements. There's no real reason he should go there if polling is reliable; however, note how my map shows MN way more vulnerable than poll suggest.

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Hillary's campaign made the mistake of thinking the Blue Wall was solid, so I suspect that Biden's people are determined not to repeat that mistake. I don't believe that Biden is ahead by double digits in Blue Wall states, but I'm also skeptical of the notion that the polls are almost *all* wrong and that Trump is actually ahead in those states. 

Winning Florida would give him some insurance in case one of the Blue Wall states were to slip away, plus it gives him a positive election night storyline. My understanding is that they expect FL to finish almost all of its counting on election night, whereas MI, WI, and PA are likely to (a) take longer to count all the absentee/mail-in ballots, and (b) display a "red mirage" on election night whereby the initial numbers will reflect Election Day voting totals that may skew towards Trump. If he's already won Florida - a state that leans a bit more Republican - it will be harder for anyone to claim credibly that a later "blue shift" in the counting in MI, WI, and PA is reflective of vote fraud (which Trump and/or his allies may well try to do).

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

The fact he's going to MN probably worries me more than any of his movements. There's no real reason he should go there if polling is reliable; however, note how my map shows MN way more vulnerable than poll suggest.

I don't quite get it either - even the R-leaning Trafalgar Group poll from today has Biden up by three in Minnesota - but perhaps it's just an abundance of caution given how unexpectedly close the state was last time around. I suppose we're about to find out whether there is in fact an ongoing problem with the polls in effectively measuring Trump's support or if 2016 was kind of a fluke in that regard.

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3 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I don't quite get it either - even the R-leaning Trafalgar Group poll from today has Biden up by three in Minnesota - but perhaps it's just an abundance of caution given how unexpectedly close the state was last time around. I suppose we're about to find out whether there is in fact an ongoing problem with the polls in effectively measuring Trump's support or if 2016 was kind of a fluke in that regard.

Biden might not trust polling as much as some of us do. He could just be playing it safe. It is odd because if he has to rely on MN that means he probably lost WI and PA. 

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Biden might not trust polling as much as some of us do. He could just be playing it safe. It is odd because if he has to rely on MN that means he probably lost WI and PA. 

Also, don't forget MN, IA and WI form a little bit of a trio in the Northern Midwest - it isn't too difficult to make a jump up to MN for a bit in time. It's worth it more than likely for the relatively little cost. 

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  • Arizona moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden*
  • Georgia moves from Likely R to Tilt D (A+ polls today) *Flips to Biden*
  • Nevada moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden*
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden

From the polls I've seen, Trump is going to win Arizona, NC and Nevada.. IDK about Georgia. 

 

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