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State of the Race: 5 Days Left


5 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See my map and write up for the map: Who wins if the election is today?

  2. 2. US shows historic GDP gains after the Covid Drop. Which of these align with your thoughts?

    • This is just the kind of last second news Trump needs to win! This news will see votes swerve in his direction as he sees momentum in the final days.
    • It might help Trump a little, but despite these gains, we are still far below pre-Covid levels, which means Trump fails the "are you better off 4 years ago" test.
    • The 33% GDP growth is faster than most economists predicted, which will align with Trump's message of the recovery, giving him more credibility on this topic.
    • Economists suggest "actual GDP growth" is a better metric, which shows only 7.4% growth. Trump's economic argument could be countered with this.
    • These gains are likely to be short-lived with Covid cases ticking back up. Trump's economic argument can be countered with this.
    • The record gains only exist because there was a record decline. It's like saying Usain Bolt is the fastest runner again once he takes his first step after having had a stroke.
    • Unemployment is still very high and people are still relying on government money to survive; this will diminish the economy helping Trump in this final week.
    • The economic report does not factor well-paying jobs, full-time or part-time work, etc. so it can't capture how middle class and lower middle class families are doing.
    • This GDP Report also shows that personal income fell in the third quarter. This number might be as important as the GDP #. Voters vote on a personal level not on a abstract GDP level.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Trump.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it won't make a difference.
    • I don't know what to make of this report, but it seems like it will favor Biden.
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  3. 3. Which kind of candidate would you be more likely to support?

    • Social and Economic Conservative who is a trans man and an atheist.
    • Social and Economic Liberal who is an Lutheran minister who has never made more than $40,000 a year.
  4. 4. If you were God, do you think you would be a more just and benevolent God than God?

    • It's impossible to be more just and benevolent than God.
    • Yes. They wouldn't be required to worship me. I wouldn't leave people defenseless in war, poverty, illness, and elsewhere. You'd see more people in heaven. In fact, life would pretty much be like heaven. No reason to test people if I can already predict how they'll respond.
    • No. I would seek more worship and would be willingly more unjust and less benevolent.
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    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. Do you think the United States would become a better country if you were given the power to re-write the Constitution and it was automatically ratified?

    • Yes (why, please explain below)
    • No (why, please explain below)
    • I don't know, and I won't explain below.


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Here's my updated "Trump-friendly" prediction map. Today's map reflects excellent polling for Biden, including from A+ pollsters, generic ballot now in "Blue Wave" territory (+8.4 margin), Favorability margin for Biden over Trump now at a high (+19.4). Trump's approval went up slightly and his disapproval fell slightly. Also Direction of the Country moved in his favor. This should soften some of the blows from Biden's great polling today. Since my map is based off trends/momentum, expect to see a lot of shifts below. Below are the changes from the last map.:

  • Arizona moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden*
  • Florida moves from Likely R to Tilt R (A+ polls today)
  • Georgia moves from Likely R to Tilt D (A+ polls today) *Flips to Biden*
  • Minnesota moves from Leans D to Tilt D (Good polling for Trump here)
  • Montana moves from Leans R to Likely R
  • Nevada moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden*
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Biden*
  • Texas moves from Safe R to Likely R
  • Wisconsin moves from Likely D to Leans D
  • ME-2 moves from Leans R to Tilt R
  • NE-2 moves from Tilt D to Tilt R *Flips to Trump*

Overall, the fact that my algorithm is aligning with the pundit EV maps is very bad news for Trump. I didn't think this would be possible. This probably means a Biden victory of 340+ EV isn't out of the realm of possibility. I think Biden getting 340 EVs is more likely than Biden getting 270 EVs, but I think Biden getting 326 is probably more likely than Biden getting 340. 

EA2NP.png

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... and also appoints conservative SC Justices.

I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks.  It's mostly been stable.  All of a sudden, today, there's a huge

Also, don't forget MN, IA and WI form a little bit of a trio in the Northern Midwest - it isn't too difficult to make a jump up to MN for a bit in time. It's worth it more than likely for the relative

Honestly, I'm mostly concerned now that we're going to get screwed over by postal delays and biased court rulings regarding any recounts or challenges that emerge. I think that a small but stable majority wants Trump gone, but I'm less confident that this will actually be reflected in the outcome.

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In regards to the last question, I think basic long-demanded Democratic reforms such as abolishing the EC, more term-limits, retirement ages, enforced voting and civil rights, more representation in Congress and in the Senate, national referendums, national recalls, a Constitution that focuses more on government as a useful facilitator of preserving "Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," more transparence on candidates and barring of candidates for federal offices that are not representative of the people economically. That is, no one that is top 25% or bottom 25% economically can run for federal office. I probably have 100 other ideas that I don't have time to type out right now. 

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Quote

Hackers stole $2.3 million from the Wisconsin Republican Party's account that was being used to help reelect President Donald Trump in the key battleground state, the party's chairman told The Associated Press on Thursday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/wisconsin-gop-hackers-stole-trump-fund-433593

 

Makes a change from the money going to grifters.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I am interested in your "other" comments on the God question: @Cenzonico and @Actinguy

If I was god, I would create the universe of course... and then immediately abandon it. Just let everything unfold on it's own.

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Any changes to the Constitution could come from any ideology. No one can be sure those changes will actually benefit their side more than it does right now. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I am interested in your "other" comments on the God question: @Cenzonico and @Actinguy

Couldn't really say -- I don't know how just or benevolent God is (or whether God exists).  I'm mostly agnostic -- I pray when the plane I'm on takes off or lands, but otherwise it doesn't really occur to me to think much about whether or not God exists.  

I do firmly believe that if God exists, he would not be a big fan of people using his name as justification to hate other people (homophobia, Christian/Muslim wars, etc).  But obviously I don't know whether I'm correct about that.  I just don't see the point of a version of God that wants us to pick on the downtrodden.

As for whether I could be better than the actual God, assuming that God both exists and is roughly what I think it might be if it exists -- it's hard to say.  Yes, in general, I think I could judge a stranger fairly.  But, for example, no matter how many torturous murders my daughter grows up to commit, I would never even consider sentencing her to eternal damnation.  So I certainly wouldn't be unbiased.

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19 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

  • NE-2 moves from Tilt R to Tilt D *Flips to Trump*

Wouldn't that cause it to flip to Biden?

 

(Although it wasn't exactly clear to me the color it was on the map - likely an optical illusion thing since it's between dark red.)

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11 minutes ago, Cenzonico said:

If I was god, I would create the universe of course... and then immediately abandon it. Just let everything unfold on it's own.

That's the God of Deism. 

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I've been monitoring the betting market on Predictit of what the electoral college margin will be (including who will win) for weeks.  It's mostly been stable.  All of a sudden, today, there's a huge decline for Trump across the board.   The people who were betting in his favor are jumping ship at huge losses.

My own bet (that Dems will win by a margin of 30-59 votes) has increased to give me a $30 profit off of my $80 bet if I were to sell today -- but I'm holding firm.  If Dems do win by a margin of 30-59 votes, I'll end up with a profit of nearly $1,600 off of my $80 bet.

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11 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Couldn't really say -- I don't know how just or benevolent God is (or whether God exists).  I'm mostly agnostic -- I pray when the plane I'm on takes off or lands, but otherwise it doesn't really occur to me to think much about whether or not God exists.  

I do firmly believe that if God exists, he would not be a big fan of people using his name as justification to hate other people (homophobia, Christian/Muslim wars, etc).  But obviously I don't know whether I'm correct about that.  I just don't see the point of a version of God that wants us to pick on the downtrodden.

As for whether I could be better than the actual God, assuming that God both exists and is roughly what I think it might be if it exists -- it's hard to say.  Yes, in general, I think I could judge a stranger fairly.  But, for example, no matter how many torturous murders my daughter grows up to commit, I would never even consider sentencing her to eternal damnation.  So I certainly wouldn't be unbiased.

Good reply. I think I could conceive of being better than the Biblical God. I really don't think that's really that hard to beat. Even as a kid, I was concerned with some of God's behavior. I think there may be ideas of God that might be closer to goodness. 

If God is the definition of goodness, then the dictionary definition of goodness is incorrect. 

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sat. > Trump > Rally > PA (x3)

That's his smartest move. If I were him, I'd stay in PA and WI for the rest of the election.

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10 minutes ago, Defiant said:

Wouldn't that cause it to flip to Biden?

 

(Although it wasn't exactly clear to me the color it was on the map - likely an optical illusion thing since it's between dark red.)

That was my typo. Should be Tilt D to Tilt R. I've fixed it. Thanks for pointing it out.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Note that Biden and Obama are in MI the same day.

I think that probably means they're confident in PA. They're just making sure they have MI because PA alone isn't enough. I think tag-teaming Biden and Obama is a good strategy. If I were Biden, I'd ping ping between WI and PA for the rest of the election, just to be safe. I'd have Obama ping pong between NC and FL just to be safe. I'd have Harris ping pong between GA and NC. 

Trump, as a said, should ping point between PA and WI. I'd have Pence ping ponging in MI and AZ. I'm not sure what other major surrogate they have that's like an Obama---whomever that might be, I'd have them in NC and FL. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure what other major surrogate they have that's like an Obama

I'm guessing Obama is currently a bigger draw than Biden, but I dunno.

Right, there's no one like Obama as a surrogate for Trump.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Ari Fleischer is another prominent conservative who has announced he is voting for Trump in 2020, while not voting for him in 2016 (similar to Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro),

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/523320-why-my-choice-for-president-will-be-donald-trump

Amazing all the conservatives endorsing the least conservative candidate for U.S. President ever nominated by the GOP since sometime in the late 1800's...

Trump's not at all a conservative and Biden's not all a progressive. U.S. politics is no longer truly about ideology. It's about something else - what, I'm not really sure, but no doubt something that doesn't bode well in the long-term. It COULD be the nascent signs of the solid Duopoly ready to fracture, but I won't hold my breath and sell my home over it.

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2 minutes ago, Patine said:

Amazing all the conservatives endorsing the least conservative candidate for U.S. President ever nominated by the GOP since sometime in the late 1800's...

This is what they also thought in 2016. What changed? Trump now has a record that is conservative.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

This is what they also thought in 2016. What changed? Trump now has a record that is conservative.

I disagree. Conservatives, by political definition, hold long-standing values, traditions, and institutions relative to the jurisdiction of their claimed conservativism as the principal ideals upon which their policies rest. Trump is an irreverent, blowhard, bull-in-a-chinashop, amoral, iconoclast and cares far more about his ego and image than conservative values. He literally needs Pence to play disingenuous pied-piper to lead Evanegelicals up the garden path (that last idiom selected deliberately) to follow him.

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