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State of the Race: 6 Days Left

6 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See my prediction map and write up, then answer, "Who wins if the election is held today?"

  2. 2. If Every Democratic President came together to form a baseball team, which 9 should start on the opening day game against the Republicans? [**Pick Only 9**]

    • Andrew Jackson
    • Martin Van Buren
    • James K Polk
    • Franklin Pierce
    • James Buchanan
    • Andrew Johnson
    • Grover Cleveland
    • Woodrow Wilson
    • Franklin D Roosevelt
    • Harry S Truman
    • John F Kennedy
    • Lyndon B Johnson
    • Jimmy Carter
    • Bill Clinton
    • Barack Obama
    • Joe Biden (presumably)
  3. 3. If Every Republican President came together to form a baseball team, which 9 should start on the opening day game against the Democrats? [**Pick Only 9**]

    • Abraham Lincoln
    • Ulysses S Grant
    • Rutherford B Hayes
    • James A Garfield
    • Chester A Arthur
    • Benjamin Harrison
    • William McKinley
    • Theodore Roosevelt
    • William Howard Taft
    • Warren G Harding
    • Calvin Coolidge
    • Herbert Hoover
    • Dwight D Eisenhower
    • Richard Nixon
    • Gerald Ford
    • Ronald Reagan
    • George HW Bush
    • George W Bush
    • Donald Trump

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This article gives me a lot of hope for Trump's chances @admin_270https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/28/what-to-know-election-today/#comments-wrapper



In Florida, for instance, the Democratic edge in early votes has shrunk — with 41 percent registered Democrats, compared with 37.5 percent Republicans. That’s down from a 51-29 Democratic edge two weeks ago. The gap between the two parties in raw votes has also shrunk, from nearly 470,000 votes in very early mail ballots, to 384,000 votes in all early ballots two weeks ago, to 246,000 now.

In North Carolina, the Democrats’ advantage is still 39-31 but is down from 51-18 two weeks ago as in-person early voting has surged.

Nevada is also a question mark for Democrats right now. As the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston writes, they are still running slightly ahead of the early-voting advantage they had over Republicans at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the state by around 2½ points. But the advantage appears to be narrowing slightly, and they aren’t necessarily on track to match the advantage they gleaned from early voting in 2016. These numbers also matter more than in most states, because Nevada’s vote is often overwhelmingly cast early — 770,000 of the state’s 1.1 million votes in 2016 came in before Election Day.

Black turnout lags a bit

Another area in which the numbers could perhaps be better for Democrats is early turnout among Black voters.

In Georgia, they currently make up about 29 percent of the early vote, compared with 32 percent of the final total vote in 2016 and nearly 34 percent in 2018, when a Black Democrat, Stacey Abrams, nearly won the state’s gubernatorial race.

In North Carolina, they currently make up 20 percent of the early vote, while they were 23 percent of the electorate in 2016.

Part of this may simply be because Black voters are less likely to vote early, and the deficits could be made up on Election Day. But in North Carolina, for instance, the 20 percent share of Black voters in the early vote is shy of their 22 percent share in the 2018 early vote.

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