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State of the Race: 6 Days Left


6 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See my prediction map and write up, then answer, "Who wins if the election is held today?"

  2. 2. If Every Democratic President came together to form a baseball team, which 9 should start on the opening day game against the Republicans? [**Pick Only 9**]

    • Andrew Jackson
    • Martin Van Buren
    • James K Polk
    • Franklin Pierce
    • James Buchanan
    • Andrew Johnson
    • Grover Cleveland
    • Woodrow Wilson
    • Franklin D Roosevelt
    • Harry S Truman
    • John F Kennedy
    • Lyndon B Johnson
    • Jimmy Carter
    • Bill Clinton
    • Barack Obama
    • Joe Biden (presumably)
  3. 3. If Every Republican President came together to form a baseball team, which 9 should start on the opening day game against the Democrats? [**Pick Only 9**]

    • Abraham Lincoln
    • Ulysses S Grant
    • Rutherford B Hayes
    • James A Garfield
    • Chester A Arthur
    • Benjamin Harrison
    • William McKinley
    • Theodore Roosevelt
    • William Howard Taft
    • Warren G Harding
    • Calvin Coolidge
    • Herbert Hoover
    • Dwight D Eisenhower
    • Richard Nixon
    • Gerald Ford
    • Ronald Reagan
    • George HW Bush
    • George W Bush
    • Donald Trump


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Less than one week until I cry either tears of joy or starting googling for jobs in Canada or Europe. Below is my prediction map using my rather Trump-friendly algorithm to create a map that obliterates any overconfidence a Biden supporter might have. Basically, if Biden has 270 EVs in this map, then he's probably doing alright. If Trump is winning, then Biden should probably be worried about his chances. 

I should note that in my final prediction, I'll probably disagree with this prediction map if I feel this Trump-friendly algorithm seems incredible wrong for a select state or two. However, I expect to only move states up or down a shade. 

Here are the chances to the map since yesterday based off the latest information for this morning. Terrible day for Biden. Trump is out-trending Biden in every battleground state except for WI and MN this morning. Trump also gets a boost for his approval rising and Direction of the Country (this one weighted heavily) going in his direction. Biden is able to stifle some of this with favorability trending his direction, generic Democrats rising in the polls, and Trump's disapproval rising. 

  • Arizona moves from Leans R to Likely R
  • Florida moves from Leans R to Likely R
  • Georgia moves from Tilt R to Likely R
  • Michigan moves from Safe D to Likely D
  • Minnesota moves from Leans D to Likely D
  • Nevada moves from Leans D to Tilt R
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt R to Leans R
  • Pennsylvania moves from Likely D to Leans D
  • Wisconsin moves from Leans D to Likely D

l10p4.png

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ABC isnt even trying with polling at this point. Biden +17 in WI? LOL

Trump approval 52% vs. Obama 47% at this point in cycle (both according to Rasmussen, take it with a grain of salt).

Trump Makes Gaffe on Covid Issue Noisy Protesters Outside Harris Event Biden Hit With Pie!

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''Trump is out-trending Biden in every battleground state except for WI and MN this morning. Trump also gets a boost for his approval rising and Direction of the Country''

I am actually not that surprised about Trump gaining massively in the polls. The question which remains is still whether it's the latest debate performance or not. Biden calling all people who don't support him ''chumps'' as outlined in PA won't help him either.

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Less than one week until I cry either tears of joy or starting googling for jobs in Canada or Europe. Below is my prediction map using my rather Trump-friendly algorithm to create a map that obliterates any overconfidence a Biden supporter might have. Basically, if Biden has 270 EVs in this map, then he's probably doing alright. If Trump is winning, then Biden should probably be worried about his chances. 

I should note that in my final prediction, I'll probably disagree with this prediction map if I feel this Trump-friendly algorithm seems incredible wrong for a select state or two. However, I expect to only move states up or down a shade. 

Here are the chances to the map since yesterday based off the latest information for this morning. Terrible day for Biden. Trump is out-trending Biden in every battleground state except for WI and MN this morning. Trump also gets a boost for his approval rising and Direction of the Country (this one weighted heavily) going in his direction. Biden is able to stifle some of this with favorability trending his direction, generic Democrats rising in the polls, and Trump's disapproval rising. 

  • Arizona moves from Leans R to Likely R
  • Florida moves from Leans R to Likely R
  • Georgia moves from Tilt R to Likely R
  • Michigan moves from Safe D to Likely D
  • Minnesota moves from Leans D to Likely D
  • Nevada moves from Leans D to Tilt R
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt R to Leans R
  • Pennsylvania moves from Likely D to Leans D
  • Wisconsin moves from Leans D to Likely D

l10p4.png

Sorry to tag everyone

But if Trump would manage to win with the same trail in the national vote than McCain in 2008, I officially nickname his electorate "the ninja gang"

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Is there actually polling showing Biden doing better in Iowa than in Nevada?

I suppose anything's possible, but that reminds me more of the sort of interesting-but-unlikely-in-real-life results that you sometimes get in a 270soft scenario when a state gets spammed with ads or something. I tend to be more of the view that local campaigning and advertising has only a small impact and that instead voters of similar backgrounds tend to move en masse across the country. So unless Biden is, for example, simultaneously maxing out with white working-class voters *and* slipping among Hispanic voters, winning Iowa while losing Nevada would be a pretty unlikely outcome in my book.

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Just now, RI Democrat said:

Trump makes gaffe on Covid issue

Noisy Protesters Outside Harris Event

Biden hit with pie!

Do people REALLY hit politicians with pies, or is that just a running gag from '70's and '80's parody television shows?

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Just now, Patine said:

Do people REALLY hit politicians with pies, or is that just a running gag from '70's and '80's parody television shows?

Isnt it a thing in France to hit politicians with flour/eggs?

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Just now, Patine said:

Do people REALLY hit politicians with pies, or is that just a running gag from '70's and '80's parody television shows?

Didn't it happen to Jean Chretien once, or am I thinking of something else?

Anyway, I was just quoting stereotypical 270soft scenario news headlines, though I think maybe "hit with pie" is absent from the newer versions.

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21 minutes ago, pilight said:

The polls are almost certainly affected by the early voting.  People who have already voted are less likely to respond to polls.

I take early voting in account on this map. Biden gets a boost in every battleground state because of how he's polling leads in polls regarding early voting.

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1 minute ago, RI Democrat said:

Didn't it happen to Jean Chretien once, or am I thinking of something else?

Anyway, I was just quoting stereotypical 270soft scenario news headlines, though I think maybe "hit with pie" is absent from the newer versions.

It may have, but Chretien suffered so many indignities, it might just blend in... :P

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21 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

''Trump is out-trending Biden in every battleground state except for WI and MN this morning. Trump also gets a boost for his approval rising and Direction of the Country''

I am actually not that surprised about Trump gaining massively in the polls. The question which remains is still whether it's the latest debate performance or not. Biden calling all people who don't support him ''chumps'' as outlined in PA won't help him either.

Post-debate polls show Biden as having generally been seen the winner. No one really gaining favorability, but Trump losing a point in favorability. Despite this, the post-debate polls showed Trump gain a miniscule 0.5 pts or something like that. Basically, the 3rd debate didn't move anything. 

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9 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Is there actually polling showing Biden doing better in Iowa than in Nevada?

I suppose anything's possible, but that reminds me more of the sort of interesting-but-unlikely-in-real-life results that you sometimes get in a 270soft scenario when a state gets spammed with ads or something. I tend to be more of the view that local campaigning and advertising has only a small impact and that instead voters of similar backgrounds tend to move en masse across the country. So unless Biden is, for example, simultaneously maxing out with white working-class voters *and* slipping among Hispanic voters, winning Iowa while losing Nevada would be a pretty unlikely outcome in my book.

No. Biden has a higher polling lead in AZ than in IA. The difference is that it's getting closer and Biden is losing ground in AZ but gaining ground in IA. My map works off trendings/momentum as well as with polling.

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