State of the Race: 7 Days Left

[PoliticalPundit 283]

51 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

My philosophy all along has been that Biden will lose any state that he's not polling an average of at least +5% in.   Previously, this was still projected to give Biden the win.

But using that same rule with the latest batch of polls that came out today -- I have to move Nevada and PA to Trump.



Fuck.

 

Thats' actually a great metric to look at in regards to "Shy Trump voters/fake polls".. I'd be willing to ok your map but more likely consider anything under 7-8% points a win for Trump.

 

When we get to states like Minnesota where Trump is down like 11pts I'd be ok saying Biden probably wins. 

[RI Democrat 39]

2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Sorry, come again? What event that Biden has held had lines like this?

Biden is mostly having drive-in rallies when he does public events. You're not going to see those sorts of lines because the events are smaller and people are in their cars.

[RI Democrat 39]

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Only one week left. Here is the updated prediction map based off my algorithm. See the 8 days left thread to see how this algorithm differs from the forecast map. Needless to say, this prediction algorithm is probably Trump-friendly, which might be the flaw, but I have 2016 PTSD:

Changes to the map:

• Alaska moves from Likely R to Safe R
• Arizona moves from Tilt R to Likely R
• Georgia moves from Leans R to Tilt R
• Nevada moves from Tilt D to Likely D  (Huge poll for Biden here pulling up polling avg)
• North Carolina moves from Tilt D to Tilt R
• Ohio moves from Likely R to Safe R
• Texas moves from Leans R to Safe R (Huge poll for Trump here pulling up polling avg)
• ME-2 moves from Tilt R to Leans R

 

I do not think that Arizona is more Republican-leaning than Georgia. That's not to say that I don't think Trump can win AZ, but I'd be surprised if he managed to win AZ while losing GA.

[PoliticalPundit 283]

2 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Biden is mostly having drive-in rallies when he does public events. You're not going to see those sorts of lines because the events are smaller and people are in their cars.

But when was Biden EVER having massive rallies even before Covid? This idea that bc of COVID Biden can't draw crowds is totally wrong. 

[PoliticalPundit 283]

People say this is a referendum on Trump re: election...

 

 

But in 2016 I don't recall Clinton having a strong message other than, "I'm a woman" and "what a bad person Trump is/unfit for office"

 

Yes, it's about COVID, but I believe Trump has done a very strong job at framing the election to swing state voters in terms of what a Biden administration would do. Trump with Clinton more or less just attacked her ethics/corruption and just raved about what an outsider/businessman he is. He is still doing that in a way, but this time in 2020 there is WAY more a focus on how bad Biden would be for the country. 

 

To me, this election is far more about Two very different visions for America, while 2016 was more or less whether you wanted Trump or not (or disliked both of them and didn't vote). 

 

[admin_270 784]

6 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Biden is mostly having drive-in rallies when he does public events. You're not going to see those sorts of lines because the events are smaller and people are in their cars.

How many drive-in rallies has Biden been having - anyone know?

[RI Democrat 39]

1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

But when was Biden EVER having massive rallies even before Covid? This idea that bc of COVID Biden can't draw crowds is totally wrong. 

Well, that was mostly during the primary. I don't remember the exact chronology, but Biden cemented his position as presumptive nominee only shortly before COVID got really bad.

I don't think anybody disputes that Trump's base is more fervently attached to their candidate than Biden's is, but he's also alienated half the country to the point that many of us almost don't care who runs against him as long as it's some generally acceptable Democrat. I don't know if I'd bother going to a Biden rally if I had the opportunity, but that doesn't make me any less likely to vote for him next Tuesday.

[PoliticalPundit 283]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/trump-pulls-florida-ads-as-cash-poor-campaign-enters-final-week?sref=tnnADZyt

Is Biden still visiting Florida in the future? This signals to me Trump feels very confident about his chances in Florida. 

"Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even."

 

PA is a Trump lock... Ohio I assume should be (still unclear). Really like Michigan odds. 

 

Minnesota is leaning Biden. 

 

No Wisconsin ads? Major confidence there I presume. 

 

So really the focus needs to be Michigan, Minnesota (possibly Ohio). 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/trump-pulls-florida-ads-as-cash-poor-campaign-enters-final-week?sref=tnnADZyt

Is Biden still visiting Florida in the future? This signals to me Trump feels very confident about his chances in Florida. 

"Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even."

 

PA is a Trump lock... Ohio I assume should be (still unclear). Really like Michigan odds. 

 

Minnesota is leaning Biden. 

 

No Wisconsin ads? Major confidence there I presume. 

 

So really the focus needs to be Michigan, Minnesota (possibly Ohio). 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/trump-pulls-florida-ads-as-cash-poor-campaign-enters-final-week?sref=tnnADZyt

Is Biden still visiting Florida in the future? This signals to me Trump feels very confident about his chances in Florida. 

"Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even."

 

PA is a Trump lock... Ohio I assume should be (still unclear). Really like Michigan odds. 

 

Minnesota is leaning Biden. 

 

No Wisconsin ads? Major confidence there I presume. 

 

So really the focus needs to be Michigan, Minnesota (possibly Ohio). 

[Hestia11 567]

3 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

No Wisconsin ads? Major confidence there I presume. 

 

If this was talking about Hillary Clinton, this would have a very different connotation I assume. He's simply cash strapped and having to pull money from states getting too far out of the orbit.

[PoliticalPundit 283]

2 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Well, that was mostly during the primary. I don't remember the exact chronology, but Biden cemented his position as presumptive nominee only shortly before COVID got really bad.

I don't think anybody disputes that Trump's base is more fervently attached to their candidate than Biden's is, but he's also alienated half the country to the point that many of us almost don't care who runs against him as long as it's some generally acceptable Democrat. I don't know if I'd bother going to a Biden rally if I had the opportunity, but that doesn't make me any less likely to vote for him next Tuesday.

Yeah that's what I mean?? Before he won SC, Biden was never drawing massive rallies. It appeared that people like Pete, Bernie, Warren, even AMY KLOBUCHAR had more enthusiasm than Biden at events. 

 

Had Warren dropped out earlier, Bernie does way better on Super Tuesday, and the only reason Pete/Amy left is bc Obama begged them to. Biden still inevitably wins like Clinton, but it's a much longer drawn out process that shows just how poorly Democrats thought of him from an enthusiasm standpoint. This is widely known, right? No one is excited to vote for Biden. 

 

When you say "Alienated half the country"... I'd say it's closer to 38-42% of the country which is a massive difference. Most of the "mail in voters" were planning to vote against Trump anyway and while I think half if not more of the country disapproves of his "behavior" that doesn't mean they are all voting for Biden. They could not vote at all or still vote for Trump. Look at the recent LA times/undecided voter town hall where all of them disapprove and dislike Trump's temperament/behavior, but after the 3rd debate, 14 of the 15 were leaning towards voting for him but still were "unsure". These are the same people who would say in a poll they "do not support/alienated" by the president and yet that does not guarantee a Biden vote. 

[PoliticalPundit 283]

Just now, Hestia11 said:

If this was talking about Hillary Clinton, this would have a very different connotation I assume. He's simply cash strapped and having to pull money from states getting too far out of the orbit.

There were plenty of articles in 2016 talking about how Trump was cash strapped as well in the final days, and it didn't matter.

The issue re Clinton was that she never went to rallies there! Not once re: Wisconsin.

 

If Biden had an article saying they were withdrawing money from ads for let's say.. Minnesota, I'd come to the same conclusion as I said above about Trump. 

[PoliticalPundit 283]

Based on the polls I'm becoming more and more certain that at least one major network like Fox News will be calling the election for Trump on election night around 2 or 3 am. @Actinguy's EC prediction is a great model that accounts for "Shy Trump voters" and could not agree more with the reasoning. This could very well be an election where Trump just wins everywhere that was "close", just like 2016. 

 

Think this will go longer than a night @admin_270? I'm liking where everything has been going the last few days coming from someone who thought this would take weeks if not months before the 3rd debate. 

[Wiw 91]

1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

My philosophy all along has been that Biden will lose any state that he's not polling an average of at least +5% in.   Previously, this was still projected to give Biden the win.

But using that same rule with the latest batch of polls that came out today -- I have to move Nevada and PA to Trump.



Fuck.

 

I hate to say this but you may be right. What we've been doing all along has been for nothing.

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

 

[CPE 97]

These are my thoughts on how to depoliticize the US Supreme Court :

- Term limits : I will never support lifetime terms for any sort of justice, neither do I think that politicians should be able to remain in office perpetually.  Term limits help to ensure that flesh ideas and perspectives are able to make it into these positions, with the turnover generated giving others an opportunity to have a say in how things are run/cases are decided.  I think that this nomination would be a lot less dramatic for Democrat supporters in the States if it were not a lifetime appointment

- No more simple majorities to confirm.  2/3rds of votes would be much more ideal considering  that it is very rare that a party ever has a super majority in the Senate.  This would allow opposition senators to have a say in the choosing of a justice as well, thus promoting moderates instead of more partisan figures.

My thoughts on the Libertarians : meme party, no one can take them serious with the current leadership.   I do not like their current leader at all, Johnson lent far more credibility to the party.  I think that the peak of libertarianism as an ideology came during the Ron Paul and Tea Party Movement years, the current political climate is not going to be conducive to their development as both parties are becoming much more authoritarian in response to pervasive societal issues.

My thoughts on the Greens : An even worse meme party, it is going to be hard to replicate their northern neighbors success.  It is going to be hard for any third party to succeed in America during the current climate for that matter.  The best thing that they can hope to do is grow their base from the progressive voters that may be alienated from the Democrats at the moment.

[PoliticalPundit 283]

Trump needs to go to Nevada pronto 

 

[admin_270 784]

57 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Think this will go longer than a night @admin_270?

Really don't know. I would be prepared for it to go on for weeks, but expect it to be pretty clear after a few days.

[PoliticalPundit 283]

 

Trump was down 9 in this poll by SurveyUSA a supposed "A rated" pollster and now it's tied 

 

LANDSLIDE 

[RI Democrat 39]

1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Is Biden still visiting Florida in the future? This signals to me Trump feels very confident about his chances in Florida. 

"Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even."

 

PA is a Trump lock... Ohio I assume should be (still unclear). Really like Michigan odds. 

 

Minnesota is leaning Biden. 

 

No Wisconsin ads? Major confidence there I presume. 

 

So really the focus needs to be Michigan, Minnesota (possibly Ohio). 

Why would he be investing these resources in Pennsylvania if it's a "lock"?

[PoliticalPundit 283]

Just now, RI Democrat said:

Why would he be investing these resources in Pennsylvania if it's a "lock"?

Bc % wise it's closer than Florida according to their internals. 

 

Florida is a must win for Trump, so apparently he feels good about it

PA is a must win for Biden 

[Zenobiyl 208]

1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

 

At times I wonder why American third parties aren’t taken seriously.

 

Then I watch this clip.

[Zenobiyl 208]

59 minutes ago, CPE said:

These are my thoughts on how to depoliticize the US Supreme Court :

- Term limits : I will never support lifetime terms for any sort of justice, neither do I think that politicians should be able to remain in office perpetually.  Term limits help to ensure that flesh ideas and perspectives are able to make it into these positions, with the turnover generated giving others an opportunity to have a say in how things are run/cases are decided.  I think that this nomination would be a lot less dramatic for Democrat supporters in the States if it were not a lifetime appointment

- No more simple majorities to confirm.  2/3rds of votes would be much more ideal considering  that it is very rare that a party ever has a super majority in the Senate.  This would allow opposition senators to have a say in the choosing of a justice as well, thus promoting moderates instead of more partisan figures.

My thoughts on the Libertarians : meme party, no one can take them serious with the current leadership.   I do not like their current leader at all, Johnson lent far more credibility to the party.  I think that the peak of libertarianism as an ideology came during the Ron Paul and Tea Party Movement years, the current political climate is not going to be conducive to their development as both parties are becoming much more authoritarian in response to pervasive societal issues.

My thoughts on the Greens : An even worse meme party, it is going to be hard to replicate their northern neighbors success.  It is going to be hard for any third party to succeed in America during the current climate for that matter.  The best thing that they can hope to do is grow their base from the progressive voters that may be alienated from the Democrats at the moment.

Johnson? Credibility? Am I dreaming?

This guy had gaffe after gaffe that turned a solid opportunity into a paltry 3%.

 

[TheLiberalKitten 272]

I miss Gary Johnson

[TheLiberalKitten 272]

Just now, TheLiberalKitten said:

I miss Gary Johnson

I actually have a Johnson/Weld pin because of the Quest for Gold

 

[admin_270 784]

1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

This signals to me Trump feels very confident about his chances in Florida.

Yes, my guess is they feel confident in FL, now reallocating resources to other states.