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State of the Race: 7 Days Left


7 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See the prediction map and write up, who wins the election if it is held today?

  2. 2. If you were a Democratic politician, how would you respond to a 6-3 Conservative Court? [Click all that apply]

    • I'd propose term limits
    • I'd propose limits on how many Justices one president can appoint in a term.
    • I'd propose expanding the court via legislation (this has been done countless times in US History).
    • I'd propose a court packing scheme similar to that proposed by FDR (A new judge is added when a judge reaches age 70)
    • I'd propose decreasing the number of judges, removing one or two of the sitting judges, likely conservatives
      0
    • I'd propose a retirement age for justices
    • I'd pass laws that weaken the Supreme Court so Conservatives can't perversely seek to overturn Obamacare and Roe v. Wade
    • If Biden wins and we take the House and Senate, I will compel all sitting Liberal Justices to retire and replace them with radical progressive 30-year olds who will serve forever.
    • Just stick to rhetoric but take no action
    • None of the above (mention below what you would do)
  3. 3. Which Government do you trust most to look after you and the domestic and economic interests of the average American?

    • The Federal Government
    • The State Governments
    • The Local Governments
  4. 4. What is your opinion of the Libertarian Party

    • Absolute Favorable
    • Highly Favorable
    • Mostly Favorable
    • No Opinion/Don't know
    • Mostly Unfavorable
    • Highly Unfavorable
    • Absolute Unfavorable
  5. 5. What is your opinion of the Green Party

    • Absolute Favorable
    • Highly Favorable
    • Mostly Favorable
    • No Opinion/Don't Know
    • Mostly Unfavorable
    • Highly Unfavorable
    • Absolute Unfavorable


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Only one week left. Here is the updated prediction map based off my algorithm. See the 8 days left thread to see how this algorithm differs from the forecast map. Needless to say, this prediction algorithm is probably Trump-friendly, which might be the flaw, but I have 2016 PTSD:

Changes to the map:

  • Alaska moves from Likely R to Safe R
  • Arizona moves from Tilt R to Likely R
  • Georgia moves from Leans R to Tilt R
  • Nevada moves from Tilt D to Likely D  (Huge poll for Biden here pulling up polling avg)
  • North Carolina moves from Tilt D to Tilt R
  • Ohio moves from Likely R to Safe R
  • Texas moves from Leans R to Safe R (Huge poll for Trump here pulling up polling avg)
  • ME-2 moves from Tilt R to Leans R

j1lno.png

 

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I'd flee the country.

Sorry, come again? What event that Biden has held had lines like this?

Posted Images

My opinion of state government would be better if it wasnt for....someone :P

Courts would be a hard choice for me. Some thing needs to change, but its hard to choose. I'd start with statehood for DC and Puerto Rico.

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What happens to America is very important.

In Europe we saw in Poland and Hungary that populists parties like the one of Orban and Law and Justice from Kazynsky were trying to take control of the judicial branch. That's the way new populism uses democratic rethoric to undermine classical liberal values which funded both the american and the *original* french revolutions.

In the current US illiberalism has started to rise in congress since the 2000's and is now threatening the Court. Both Republicans and Democrats, trying to seize control over it (in my opinion) and it is exactly why partisan vote in senate has increased about nominations of Supreme judges.

I am among the lawyers who firmly believe that freedom and democracy can not exist together without liberalism (european liberalism), and liberalism means :

-Independent powers

-State of rights

-Respect of basic freedoms

-Respect to opposition and civil society

But populists try to take down the legitimacy of civil society protesters, to challenge freedom of press, and turn the word "people" from an empirical word which means everyone able to vote, to only a portion of the electorate to say they are only legitimate ones.

Then in power they do 3 main things :

-Mass clientelism toward their electors

-Deny any legitimate opposition (from society, or political parties)

-Try to seize control of the state at large (institutions, jurisdictions, medias or public organizations)

On those 3 points, we can see that Maduro acted in such a way, but Trump too.

And the problem is that Democrats have to retain themselves from following this same temptation to do populist things like "packing the Court".

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2. I'd probably propose the sort of plan Mayor Pete advocated, to try to make the Supreme Court less of a partisan issue.  (The basic idea, IIRC, was to have five liberal justices, five conservative justices  (all with lifetime appointments) and that those justices have to unanimously pick 5 more justices for temporary terms)

3. It largely depends on the quality of the elected officials running each level.  Although there are certain things that make more sense at this level vs that level.

For 4 and 5, the available choices felt a little too simplistic:

4.  As a political philosophy, the idea of economic conservative/socially liberal party one is at least somewhat appealing to have as an option, but some of those guys are complete wacky (even Johnson said as much when describing some of the people that show up at the libertarian convention).  It also doesn't help when some are absolutists.

5. Even though I agree with some of their positions, but they're somewhat too extreme/impractical.  I'm not wild about how they've been used by the right (there's been a number of reports through the years of Republicans funding going to the green party, to try to pull supporters from the Democrats), and I don't like how some of their leaders will  attack Democrats far more aggressively than Republicans.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Line to see Trump in MI.

 

I'm seeing lines like this for Biden every day on my Twitter feed in a variety of states. Not really sure what this post is trying to suggest. It's likely there are more lines like this for Biden than for Trump in Michigan based of polling, early voting polling, state demographics showing an increase in black votes, polling showing whites with no college education liking Biden more than Clinton, and etc. This photo is sort of like taking an image of the one clean spot of a floor covered in spaghetti sauce and then sending it to someone and saying, "Hey, look! My floor is clean!" 

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17 minutes ago, Edouard said:

What happens to America is very important.

In Europe we saw in Poland and Hungary that populists parties like the one of Orban and Law and Justice from Kazynsky were trying to take control of the judicial branch. That's the way new populism uses democratic rethoric to undermine classical liberal values which funded both the american and the *original* french revolutions.

In the current US illiberalism has started to rise in congress since the 2000's and is now threatening the Court. Both Republicans and Democrats, trying to seize control over it (in my opinion) and it is exactly why partisan vote in senate has increased about nominations of Supreme judges.

I am among the lawyers who firmly believe that freedom and democracy can not exist together without liberalism (european liberalism), and liberalism means :

-Independent powers

-State of rights

-Respect of basic freedoms

-Respect to opposition and civil society

But populists try to take down the legitimacy of civil society protesters, to challenge freedom of press, and turn the word "people" from an empirical word which means everyone able to vote, to only a portion of the electorate to say they are only legitimate ones.

Then in power they do 3 main things :

-Mass clientelism toward their electors

-Deny any legitimate opposition (from society, or political parties)

-Try to seize control of the state at large (institutions, jurisdictions, medias or public organizations)

On those 3 points, we can see that Maduro acted in such a way, but Trump too.

And the problem is that Democrats have to retain themselves from following this same temptation to do populist things like "packing the Court".

Although I was 50/50 on the issue of court packing, you have changed my perspective. Checks and balances exist for a reason, and undermining them (even in reaction to an injustice) only serves to make a country less democratic.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm seeing lines like this for Biden every day on my Twitter feed in a variety of states. Not really sure what this post is trying to suggest. It's likely there are more lines like this for Biden than for Trump in Michigan based of polling, early voting polling, state demographics showing an increase in black votes, polling showing whites with no college education liking Biden more than Clinton, and etc. This photo is sort of like taking an image of the one clean spot of a floor covered in spaghetti sauce and then sending it to someone and saying, "Hey, look! My floor is clean!" 

Sorry, come again? What event that Biden has held had lines like this?

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11 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Although I was 50/50 on the issue of court packing, you have changed my perspective. Checks and balances exist for a reason, and undermining them (even in reaction to an injustice) only serves to make a country less democratic.

I am among those who are completely pissed off that Barett is Judge

But I believe that we can try to depoliticize justice nominations like the 2 first options :

-Term limits
-Limit on how many Justices one president can appoint in a term.

And I completely oppose this
"I'd pass laws that weaken the Supreme Court so Conservatives can't perversely seek to overturn Obamacare and Roe v. Wade"

=> While I am a supporter of Roe v Wade. Cause the role of the Supreme Court has not to be diminished, or the government will oversteep its bounds (whatever the government is republican or democrat).

Constitutionnal judges are there to limit political powers of the others branches if those powers begin to clash with the fundamental social contract of the nation aka the Constitution, not to amplify these powers.

Last days in Poland the Supreme Court (which has completely been packed by the populist government of Poland) has kind of overruled abortion right, which by the way is contrary to the european union and we are about to sanction them.

 

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sorry, come again? What event that Biden has held had lines like this?

My mistake. I mistook that image as a line for early voting for some reason. Yeah, rallies will have some people even in states that will mostly vote for the other candidate.

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By the way @vcczar for your second question I would also have this opinion :

-Make sure that 1 to 3 judges of the Supreme Court be/are fully independent from political parties (either elected by judges or choosed for their record in bipartisanship or NO partisanship ) => a good way would be that this/these judge(s) be elected by 70/75 senators at least if not elected by judges

Which needs a constitutionnal amendment yes

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14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Basically no evidence Biden could generate a line like that for a rally.

I agree that there is no evidence. There's also a chance he wouldn't be able to even if there wasn't a pandemic. Trump is good at rallies, but he still couldn't win the PV in 2016. He barely won MI. It looks like MI is probably out of his reach this time. Biden is polling better than Clinton there. His lead is more stable. The trends that hurt Clinton there are not hurting Biden there. I find it odd that you give so much attention to rallies, especially in a pandemic election. If Biden wins, you'll probably have to greatly weaken them in the PI game for the 2020 scenario or have so sort of mechanism that allows Biden to defeat Trump by just space barring through the campaign.

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12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I find it odd that you give so much attention to rallies, especially in a pandemic election.

I'm interested in them primarily because they are one barometre of enthusiasm. People waiting hours outside in MI in late Oct., and not a concert-rally (Hillary Clinton did that in 2016 sometimes).

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

FL Oct. 12th Biden +3.7% -> Oct. 27th Trump +0.4 (RCP ave.)

Yeah, I predict FL goes to Trump.

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My philosophy all along has been that Biden will lose any state that he's not polling an average of at least +5% in.   Previously, this was still projected to give Biden the win.

But using that same rule with the latest batch of polls that came out today -- I have to move Nevada and PA to Trump.

image.png.135e26ec8e4c3036050b19eaba4a2d0d.png

Fuck.

 

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

My philosophy all along has been that Biden will lose any state that he's not polling an average of at least +5% in.

Interesting methodology. What polling aggregate are you using?

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Interesting methodology. What polling aggregate are you using?

270towin, polling average of states with third party polling.  They use the most recent 5 polls in each state.  With multiple polls coming out per state per day, things change rapidly.  Hopefully this map will be outdated by tomorrow.  But for now: not loving it.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

I'm interested in them primarily because they are one barometre of enthusiasm. People waiting hours outside in MI in late Oct., and not a concert-rally (Hillary Clinton did that in 2016 sometimes).

Have we forgotten 2016 when Trump's crowds were out of this world, had bad poll numbers, and STILL won by a wider margin than polls claimed? Crowds and rallies matter a LOT and it shows where the enthusiasm is. 

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