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State of the Race: 8 Days Left


8 Day Poll  

32 members have voted

  1. 1. See my new map and write-up for this map, then ---- Who do you think wins the election if it is held today?

  2. 2. Which map do you think will be closer to correct? My new prediction map (showing 300 EVs right now for Biden) or the top pollster/pundit maps (showing 320ish-340ish for Biden)?

  3. 3. Do you think the 270Soft Forum needs more moderators and updated, clearer rules to help discourage cut down on toxic behavior? [check all that apply]

    • I think we need more moderators or at least try it out and see how it goes.
    • I think we should have updated rules because we sort of pick and choose which rules we want to follow and which we don't.
    • I only support new moderators if they make their rules exclusively on the forum rules and not based off biases.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of violations--such as personal attacks.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of political posts are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of "off-topic" posts (say about sports or a hobby, etc.) are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have a clear rules and examples of ways we can vent frustration, critic one another, etc. For example, can way say, "The honorable forum user, who I will not name, has routinely been toxic and moronic." because it isn't specifically attacking anyone by name.
    • Other Forum changes I'd like to see (mention below)
    • Admin is the only moderator we need.
    • Even if the currently rules aren't exactly followed to the letter, they're good enough. No need for updates, clarifications, or examples.
  4. 4. In your option, has the forum become more toxic in the last month?

    • Yes, but I think it's just because the election is about to occur; toxicity will go away soon.
    • Yes, and I think it is something more than just the election being close at hand.
    • No, I haven't noticed any more toxicity this month than compared to any other month.
    • No, I fail to really see any toxicity.
      0
    • Other (mention below but refrain from mentioning user names or attacking anyone)
  5. 5. If we had new moderators, which active users do you think would moderate fairly, honorably, respectably, and without bias, without becoming power-hungry, and without bending the rules of moderation, etc?

    • Herbert Hoover
    • Reagan04
    • ConservativeElector 2
    • Actinguy
    • VCCzar
    • TheMiddlePolitical
    • Patine
    • WVProgressive
    • Hestia11
    • SilentLIberty
    • Pilight
      0
    • Edouard
    • PoliticalPundit
      0
    • jnewt
      0
    • TheLiberalKitten
    • The Blood
    • Sunnymentoaddict
    • Zenobiyl
    • Wiw
    • ThePotatoWalrus
    • Cenzonico
    • CentristGuy
      0
    • billay
    • RI Democrat
    • avatarmushi
    • Mark_W
    • Other (mention below)


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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Is there a place to find their schedule info?

 

2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

GA and NV in the last week of the campaign. 🧐

I've heard that Democratic internal polls are really strong for Biden, and mostly confirming the pollsters. If this is the case, Biden is trying to expand his map. A lot of the ElectionTwitter people I follow are also making various statements on why Biden's situation is much better than Clinton's at this time 4-years ago. The things that collapsed for Clinton are not happening to Biden. If Biden fails, it's something new. 

With this said, I'd still be more comfortable if they'd just play like they were behind.

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The gang discovers the 6 "other" moderators:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartb

Obama was just there.  That's probably better than the actual candidates.

20 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

I've heard that Democratic internal polls are really strong for Biden, and mostly confirming the pollsters. If this is the case, Biden is trying to expand his map. A lot of the ElectionTwitter people I follow are also making various statements on why Biden's situation is much better than Clinton's at this time 4-years ago. The things that collapsed for Clinton are not happening to Biden. If Biden fails, it's something new. 

With this said, I'd still be more comfortable if they'd just play like they were behind.

I'm starting to think that time is simply running out for the Trump campaign. They need to switch up this race, and they haven't been able to in a way that would help them. There's still a possibility that Trump wins, but it's dwindling by the day. 62 million Americans have already voted. That pool of voters is gone.

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13 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm starting to think that time is simply running out for the Trump campaign. They need to switch up this race, and they haven't been able to in a way that would help them. There's still a possibility that Trump wins, but it's dwindling by the day. 62 million Americans have already voted. That pool of voters is gone.

Most of those voters were already planning to vote for Biden anyway.

 

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2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm starting to think that time is simply running out for the Trump campaign. They need to switch up this race, and they haven't been able to in a way that would help them. There's still a possibility that Trump wins, but it's dwindling by the day. 62 million Americans have already voted. That pool of voters is gone.

You mean that pinning Biden down on fracking where he either loses voters in PA or some of his more liberal voters depending on which position he takes and making an argument regarding what to do on COVID is actually a good strategy that makes people decide on who to vote for might have actually been a better strategy than floating out some conspiracy story about a laptop randomly recovered?

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Then what are they doing in NV?

Because the campaign might feel like they have MI, PA and FL locked up? 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

If they have FL locked up, why don't they have NV locked up even moreso?

High % of Mexican-Americans and that demographic is trending towards Trump this year and away from Dems?

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Just now, vcczar said:

High % of Mexican-Americans and that demographic is trending towards Trump this year and away from Dems?

Interestingly, I don't see GA on the itinerary of Trump or any high-profile surrogate as of yet for the next week - anyone know differently?

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23 minutes ago, billay said:

You mean that pinning Biden down on fracking where he either loses voters in PA or some of his more liberal voters depending on which position he takes and making an argument regarding what to do on COVID is actually a good strategy that makes people decide on who to vote for might have actually been a better strategy than floating out some conspiracy story about a laptop randomly recovered?

What was Trump going to do? Trump had no other options until Biden screwed himself at the debate. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Same with TX. I am not aware of Trump or any high-profile surrogate planning to go there in the next week as of yet.

Their internal numbers must be really confident that Texas is a nothing burger.

 

 

I can't count all the articles that had Clinton winning Texas or potentially spoiling it... and then Trump won by like 10% and 800K votes.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Good question.

https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times

First battleground state is part of FL. Then NC and OH.

Ohio I'd be shocked if went to Biden. So that's a given (in this scenario). There we can look an enthusiasm and turnout for Trump.

NC similar, though I give Biden a slight better chance.

 

Florida is the key. If it's a blowout (and Ohio goes how expected enthusiasm wise) and Trump takes it it will be over by the time we get to PA.

 

If Biden wins NC or it's close in Ohio we'll be in for a long night/month/months. 

 

Trump loses Florida the race is over. 

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9 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

If Biden wins NC or it's close in Ohio we'll be in for a long night/month/months. 

Ya, I think OH can give us an idea of PA, MI, WI. If Trump doesn't win OH, he probably won't win any of the other blue wall states. FL is a bit unique, but probably very important of itself.

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Most interesting article I've read today.

https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3338/experimental-polling-point-to-trump-victory/

"Biden supporters think friends and family members might be embarrassed to acknowledge their support of Trump. Trump supporters think that other people in their social circle who support the president’s reelection might fear harassment or intentionally obstruct pollsters; they don’t think embarrassment for supporting the president is a strong factor."

Corroborates anecdotal reports of Trump supporters intentionally telling pollsters incorrect answers.

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18 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, I think OH can give us an idea of PA, MI, WI. If Trump doesn't win OH, he probably won't win any of the other blue wall states. FL is a bit unique, but probably very important of itself.

I recall in 2016 commentators/pollsters being shocked at the enthusiasm and NUMBER of people who voted for Trump as the night went on. Blew out the polls by a lot.

Why wouldn't that be the case this time?

 

I see Ohio as a clear marker. If somehow Biden of all people wins Ohio it's over. After the first polls come out I think those who follow politics closely will be able to know pretty quickly who will win. 

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Most interesting article I've read today.

https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3338/experimental-polling-point-to-trump-victory/

"Biden supporters think friends and family members might be embarrassed to acknowledge their support of Trump. Trump supporters think that other people in their social circle who support the president’s reelection might fear harassment or intentionally obstruct pollsters; they don’t think embarrassment for supporting the president is a strong factor."

Corroborates anecdotal reports of Trump supporters intentionally telling pollsters incorrect answers.

I truly think Shy Trump votesr have only increased 

 

since in 4 years, the idea of being anti Trump has only become more normalized in everyday life. Before it was just a "Shock or wtf" reaction from others, now it's almost assumed everyone you interact w is Anti Trump. 

 

The link is similar to anecdotal data I've seen from African American voters/online who believe Trump is going to win again just from a "hunch". Just like in 2016 and the SNL Chappelle/Rock sketch. 

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