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State of the Race: 8 Days Left


8 Day Poll  

32 members have voted

  1. 1. See my new map and write-up for this map, then ---- Who do you think wins the election if it is held today?

  2. 2. Which map do you think will be closer to correct? My new prediction map (showing 300 EVs right now for Biden) or the top pollster/pundit maps (showing 320ish-340ish for Biden)?

  3. 3. Do you think the 270Soft Forum needs more moderators and updated, clearer rules to help discourage cut down on toxic behavior? [check all that apply]

    • I think we need more moderators or at least try it out and see how it goes.
    • I think we should have updated rules because we sort of pick and choose which rules we want to follow and which we don't.
    • I only support new moderators if they make their rules exclusively on the forum rules and not based off biases.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of violations--such as personal attacks.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of political posts are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of "off-topic" posts (say about sports or a hobby, etc.) are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have a clear rules and examples of ways we can vent frustration, critic one another, etc. For example, can way say, "The honorable forum user, who I will not name, has routinely been toxic and moronic." because it isn't specifically attacking anyone by name.
    • Other Forum changes I'd like to see (mention below)
    • Admin is the only moderator we need.
    • Even if the currently rules aren't exactly followed to the letter, they're good enough. No need for updates, clarifications, or examples.
  4. 4. In your option, has the forum become more toxic in the last month?

    • Yes, but I think it's just because the election is about to occur; toxicity will go away soon.
    • Yes, and I think it is something more than just the election being close at hand.
    • No, I haven't noticed any more toxicity this month than compared to any other month.
    • No, I fail to really see any toxicity.
      0
    • Other (mention below but refrain from mentioning user names or attacking anyone)
  5. 5. If we had new moderators, which active users do you think would moderate fairly, honorably, respectably, and without bias, without becoming power-hungry, and without bending the rules of moderation, etc?

    • Herbert Hoover
    • Reagan04
    • ConservativeElector 2
    • Actinguy
    • VCCzar
    • TheMiddlePolitical
    • Patine
    • WVProgressive
    • Hestia11
    • SilentLIberty
    • Pilight
      0
    • Edouard
    • PoliticalPundit
      0
    • jnewt
      0
    • TheLiberalKitten
    • The Blood
    • Sunnymentoaddict
    • Zenobiyl
    • Wiw
    • ThePotatoWalrus
    • Cenzonico
    • CentristGuy
      0
    • billay
    • RI Democrat
    • avatarmushi
    • Mark_W
    • Other (mention below)


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46 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

If Biden loses and I have a feeling even liberal networks will call it for Trump on Nov 3rd at this rate

Yes, I do think Trump could lead in many more states than expected on election night, because the postal votes will be counted later in some states (at least PA from what I know)

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The gang discovers the 6 "other" moderators:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartb

Obama was just there.  That's probably better than the actual candidates.

13 minutes ago, Wiw said:

How could he, there was a pandemic on!

Trump managed to do it. He did suffer an outbreak in his inner circle, but that was evidently worth the risk for him.

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29 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yes, I do think Trump could lead in many more states than expected on election night, because the postal votes will be counted later in some states (at least PA from what I know)

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me.

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31 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Yes, I do think Trump could lead in many more states than expected on election night, because the postal votes will be counted later in some states (at least PA from what I know)

If the broadcasts starts with, "Trump's going to have a huge lead but we REFUSE to call anything tonight" on CNN or something.. the race is over.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see Fox News call it for Trump at like 2am 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

If the broadcasts starts with, "Trump's going to have a huge lead but we REFUSE to call anything tonight" on CNN or something.. the race is over.

I'll watch it on CNN, because I don't have Fox News here.

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A few things in Biden's favor:

  • Black turnout is expected to be high -- that tends to vote Democrat. 
  • Turn out in general is expected to be high -- that tends to also mean more Democratic votes. 
  • Clinton's campaign/lead was collapsing by now; Biden's is still holding, despite some tightening 
  • Record number early voters and mail-in ballots, the majority which are expected to be Biden supporters. This might dilute any catching up Trump can do. Trump is doing a little better in the polls, but Biden was polling his best as votes were coming in. 
  • Biden is holding leads in battleground states that Clinton was either losing or was showing high volatility. 
  • My very cautious/Trump-friendly map algorithm is showing Biden at 300 EVs instead of say 270ish. 

 

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9 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Austria doesn't have Fox News? That seems extremely.. weird. Idk Austrian politics.

What about MSNBC?  Probably not OAN then

Nope. The only US television channel I have is CNN. Perhaps my cable TV package is just lame, but I do have BBC, France24, RaiUno and various German TV channels. I also have a Polish and a Turkish channel, but I don't understand them anyway. Anyway, my Internet seems completely open lol (however, some regional US newspaper websites tell me I can't visit them because of the EU's data protection law blah blah blah)

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38 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Trump managed to do it. He did suffer an outbreak in his inner circle, but that was evidently worth the risk for him.

That's my point, he might not have survived it.

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Interesting.

 

I've always considered Ohio to be one of the less likely pickups for Biden. I'd rank it below not only the MI/WI/PA trifecta, but also AZ, FL, NC, and maybe even GA and IA in terms of 2016 Trump states that I would expect Biden to win.

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2 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I've always considered Ohio to be one of the less likely pickups for Biden. I'd rank it below not only the MI/WI/PA trifecta, but also AZ, FL, NC, and maybe even GA and IA in terms of 2016 Trump states that I would expect Biden to win.

Yes, agree.

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This is what I found for a Biden/Harris schedule.

This week's upcoming schedule so far: Tuesday: Biden in Georgia, Kamala in Nevada Wednesday: Kamala in Arizona Thursday: Biden in Florida Friday: Biden in Wisconsin and Iowa, Kamala in Texas.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

This is what I found for a Biden/Harris schedule.

This week's upcoming schedule so far: Tuesday: Biden in Georgia, Kamala in Nevada Wednesday: Kamala in Arizona Thursday: Biden in Florida Friday: Biden in Wisconsin and Iowa, Kamala in Texas.

Is there a place to find their schedule info?

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Is there a place to find their schedule info?

I just found it online from a few sources. 

I'm surprised PA isn't on the list. The rest make pretty good sense (NV to shore up support), GA, AZ, FL to expand the attack.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

A few things in Biden's favor:

  • Black turnout is expected to be high -- that tends to vote Democrat. 
  • Turn out in general is expected to be high -- that tends to also mean more Democratic votes. 
  • Clinton's campaign/lead was collapsing by now; Biden's is still holding, despite some tightening 
  • Record number early voters and mail-in ballots, the majority which are expected to be Biden supporters. This might dilute any catching up Trump can do. Trump is doing a little better in the polls, but Biden was polling his best as votes were coming in. 
  • Biden is holding leads in battleground states that Clinton was either losing or was showing high volatility. 
  • My very cautious/Trump-friendly map algorithm is showing Biden at 300 EVs instead of say 270ish. 

 

In regards to black turnout, I’ve seen and heard some arguments that Biden will underperform with black voters. I still lean Biden, but I think Trump will surprise people with his share of that demographic.

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3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

In regards to black turnout, I’ve seen and heard some arguments that Biden will underperform with black voters. I still lean Biden, but I think Trump will surprise people with his share of that demographic.

I saw a recent poll for black voters it was like 89-7 or something similar. I doubt he'll end up over performing. They always say Republicans will over perform with Black voters, then it doesn't happen.

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34 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I just found it online from a few sources. 

I'm surprised PA isn't on the list. The rest make pretty good sense (NV to shore up support), GA, AZ, FL to expand the attack.

Obama was just there.  That's probably better than the actual candidates.

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