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State of the Race: 8 Days Left


8 Day Poll  

32 members have voted

  1. 1. See my new map and write-up for this map, then ---- Who do you think wins the election if it is held today?

  2. 2. Which map do you think will be closer to correct? My new prediction map (showing 300 EVs right now for Biden) or the top pollster/pundit maps (showing 320ish-340ish for Biden)?

  3. 3. Do you think the 270Soft Forum needs more moderators and updated, clearer rules to help discourage cut down on toxic behavior? [check all that apply]

    • I think we need more moderators or at least try it out and see how it goes.
    • I think we should have updated rules because we sort of pick and choose which rules we want to follow and which we don't.
    • I only support new moderators if they make their rules exclusively on the forum rules and not based off biases.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of violations--such as personal attacks.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of political posts are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of "off-topic" posts (say about sports or a hobby, etc.) are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have a clear rules and examples of ways we can vent frustration, critic one another, etc. For example, can way say, "The honorable forum user, who I will not name, has routinely been toxic and moronic." because it isn't specifically attacking anyone by name.
    • Other Forum changes I'd like to see (mention below)
    • Admin is the only moderator we need.
    • Even if the currently rules aren't exactly followed to the letter, they're good enough. No need for updates, clarifications, or examples.
  4. 4. In your option, has the forum become more toxic in the last month?

    • Yes, but I think it's just because the election is about to occur; toxicity will go away soon.
    • Yes, and I think it is something more than just the election being close at hand.
    • No, I haven't noticed any more toxicity this month than compared to any other month.
    • No, I fail to really see any toxicity.
      0
    • Other (mention below but refrain from mentioning user names or attacking anyone)
  5. 5. If we had new moderators, which active users do you think would moderate fairly, honorably, respectably, and without bias, without becoming power-hungry, and without bending the rules of moderation, etc?

    • Herbert Hoover
    • Reagan04
    • ConservativeElector 2
    • Actinguy
    • VCCzar
    • TheMiddlePolitical
    • Patine
    • WVProgressive
    • Hestia11
    • SilentLIberty
    • Pilight
      0
    • Edouard
    • PoliticalPundit
      0
    • jnewt
      0
    • TheLiberalKitten
    • The Blood
    • Sunnymentoaddict
    • Zenobiyl
    • Wiw
    • ThePotatoWalrus
    • Cenzonico
    • CentristGuy
      0
    • billay
    • RI Democrat
    • avatarmushi
    • Mark_W
    • Other (mention below)


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18 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is the campaign has better info than we do, and so it's probably closer than polls suggest. IMHO.

I agree with this in general (sometimes, campaigns do irrational things even with better info). And it's possible in the Biden case,  if he's playing it safe, he's focusing on the "blue wall" states even if they're significantly ahead because if they win those, the other battleground states become irrelevant (at least towards winning the election).

  But they could also be focusing on MI for the Senate race (that race looks like the most vulnerable senate race for a Democrat outside of Jones).

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The gang discovers the 6 "other" moderators:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartb

Obama was just there.  That's probably better than the actual candidates.

1 minute ago, Defiant said:

I agree with this in general (sometimes, campaigns do irrational things even with better info). And it's possible in the Biden case, they're focusing on the "blue wall" states even if they're significantly ahead because if they win those, the other battleground states become irrelevant (at least towards winning the election).

  But they could also be focusing on MI for the Senate race (that race looks like the most vulnerable senate race for a Democrat outside of Jones).

Yes, all good points.

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Yesterday we had Azores regional elections, all polls did give Absolute Majority to the centre-left party alone, like in all elections in last 20 years, not needing support from leftist parties, in the end, all Left together cant form government, was shocking, and shows how polls can be wrong, and in Portugal polls usually are better than in USA. This happened, because abstentionists , turnout was much higher than in 2016. Abstentionists voted Right instead of staying home.

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34 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

Yesterday we had Azores regional elections, all polls did give Absolute Majority to the centre-left party alone, like in all elections in last 20 years, not needing support from leftist parties, in the end, all Left together cant form government, was shocking, and shows how polls can be wrong, and in Portugal polls usually are better than in USA. This happened, because abstentionists , turnout was much higher than in 2016. Abstentionists voted Right instead of staying home.

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartbeat.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartbeat.

Correction: I was there 2006 - 2008.

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30 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartbeat.

Im portuguese but not Azorian, I live in Lisbon.

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3 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

I voted for Wiw for shits and giggles but then I realize how scary that would actually be. The "preacher of doomsday" given moderator powers sounds like a recipe for disaster. H̶e̶y̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶e̶v̶o̶l̶u̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶i̶n̶g̶?̶

Believe me, if I had it, I'd use all my power to keep something like that from happening.

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Mon. > Trump > Rally > PA (x3)

Tu. > Trump > Rally > MI, WI, NE

We. > Trump > Rally > AZ (x2)

Trump needs to do another 3x trip to PA on like Saturday or Sunday this week.

Otherwise I like the choices.... smart rallying. Why not 3 rallies in Arizona? 

 

Trump's stamina is unheard of in political history, might as well use it all up, unless his team is expecting more court decisions post November 3rd and they want to save it for future rallies lol. 

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1 hour ago, Defiant said:

I agree with this in general (sometimes, campaigns do irrational things even with better info). And it's possible in the Biden case,  if he's playing it safe, he's focusing on the "blue wall" states even if they're significantly ahead because if they win those, the other battleground states become irrelevant (at least towards winning the election).

  But they could also be focusing on MI for the Senate race (that race looks like the most vulnerable senate race for a Democrat outside of Jones).

If true

 

This could not be more ridiculous an idea for the Biden campaign. A classic example once again of counting their chickens before they hatch

 

Instead the should spend the day going to PA, Arizona etc..

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Biden seems to have no public events scheduled today. 🤷‍♂️

If Biden loses and I have a feeling even liberal networks will call it for Trump on Nov 3rd at this rate

 

It'll be so obvious why. He never campaigned. He had 0 enthusiasm. He could not do more 1 event a day without being tired. His 3rd debate was a disaster especially w oil. He appeared unable to function and often misspoke in ways worse than George W. 

 

Dems could have run Buttigeg, Kamala, Booker, Beto and the fact that they campaign at least twice a day would have helped. Obviously not progressives like Warren or Sanders, but it's remarkable it's 8 days before an election and this guy doesn't do anything! 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

If true

 

This could not be more ridiculous an idea for the Biden campaign. A classic example once again of counting their chickens before they hatch

 

Instead the should spend the day going to PA, Arizona etc..

If I were Biden, I would go to Georgia than Arizona. Georgia has two competitive Senate elections and a few House races. While Arizona's Senate race is essentially locked up, baring anything major in the next few days. Trump, I am surprised hasn't established a second home Minnesota given how Tina Smith is under performing in the polls.

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Pretty clear there's an enthusiasm gap between the candidates. Rally size, car rallies, boat rallies, counter-rallies, yard signage, 'strongly supports' survey numbers, ...

The argument pro-Biden re enthusiasm is that this election cycle is different from most, because 'enthusiasm-against' is largely motivating one side, which manifests differently than 'enthusiasm-for'.

The latest polls on enthusiasm that I’ve seen show Biden with a slight enthusiasm lead. 538 posted it in a post-debate article on their website. 

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49 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

Im portuguese but not Azorian, I live in Lisbon.

Yeay, a fellow European.

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The enthusiasm could not be more with Trump. There is 0/barely any enthusiasm for Biden, it is only staunch liberals who massively dislike Trump. Notice how all the swing voters (LA Times 15 swing state people) in post debate polls all dislike Biden, and LEAN towards Trump but don't like his temperament. Same thing now. 

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3 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If I were Biden, I would go to Georgia than Arizona. Georgia has two competitive Senate elections and a few House races. While Arizona's Senate race is essentially locked up, baring anything major in the next few days. Trump, I am surprised hasn't established a second home Minnesota given how Tina Smith is under performing in the polls.

Yeah, I've been hearing Georgia could swing towards Biden. And doesn't appear Trump is heading there anytime soon? 

 

Honestly I don't think Trump cares very much if he loses the senate/house .. he just wants to be President. 

 

Fact we even had articles discussing staff members of Biden organizing who would run his government is bad karma imo 

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Yeah, I've been hearing Georgia could swing towards Biden. And doesn't appear Trump is heading there anytime soon? 

 

Honestly I don't think Trump cares very much if he loses the senate/house .. he just wants to be President. 

 

Fact we even had articles discussing staff members of Biden organizing who would run his government is bad karma imo 

Texas, and Georgia would by my two states for Biden. The Texas State House, House seats and Senate seat are in play. Georgia has two Senate seats and one possible House pickup. However, Trump oddly could improve the GoP's standing in Minnesota and maybe Ernst in Iowa. Like from a campaign point of view, I am baffled by Trump's choices of where to campaign. 

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Just now, Sunnymentoaddict said:

Texas, and Georgia would by my two states for Biden. The Texas State House, House seats and Senate seat are in play. Georgia has two Senate seats and one possible House pickup. However, Trump oddly could improve the GoP's standing in Minnesota and maybe Ernst in Iowa. Like from a campaign point of view, I am baffled by Trump's choices of where to campaign. 

How so? Think we have different ideas on what should be the focus.

 

You seem to want the focus to be on improving House/Senate seats whereas I could not care any less (right now) and just am looking for Trump to get to 270.

Doesn't it totally defeat the purpose if Biden focuses on let's say Texas, but then loses the election even if he improved people's chances at House Seats? 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

How so? Think we have different ideas on what should be the focus.

 

You seem to want the focus to be on improving House/Senate seats whereas I could not care any less (right now) and just am looking for Trump to get to 270.

Doesn't it totally defeat the purpose if Biden focuses on let's say Texas, but then loses the election even if he improved people's chances at House Seats? 

If I were Trump, I would rather want a GoP Senate majority, and a smaller Dem House majority; than a Dem Senate and a stronger Dem House majority. But you do bring a good point. Beto O'Rourke barely lost the election but his strength in the suburbs of Houston and elsewhere helped carry many Democrats to victory.  

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4 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If I were Trump, I would rather want a GoP Senate majority, and a smaller Dem House majority; than a Dem Senate and a stronger Dem House majority.

I think this is right. 1. Presidency 2. Senate majority 3. Narrow Dem House majority.

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11 minutes ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If I were Trump, I would rather want a GoP Senate majority, and a smaller Dem House majority; than a Dem Senate and a stronger Dem House majority. But you do bring a good point. Beto O'Rourke barely lost the election but his strength in the suburbs of Houston and elsewhere helped carry many Democrats to victory.  

If I were Trump I'd just focus on getting to 270. 

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More than 16.82 million people tuned into Sunday evening's "60 Minutes" episode featuring interviews with President Trump and Joe Biden, according to preliminary Nielsen ratings.
 

 

 

Biden but especially Kamala came across so poorly (surprisingly) in the interview. We'll see if it has an effect.. 

 

My guess is most just tuned in for the Trump controversy.. 

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2 hours ago, Defiant said:

But they could also be focusing on MI for the Senate race (that race looks like the most vulnerable senate race for a Democrat outside of Jones).

True. I really hope John James wins. He could serve as an inspiration for so many people.

 

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