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State of the Race: 8 Days Left


8 Day Poll  

32 members have voted

  1. 1. See my new map and write-up for this map, then ---- Who do you think wins the election if it is held today?

  2. 2. Which map do you think will be closer to correct? My new prediction map (showing 300 EVs right now for Biden) or the top pollster/pundit maps (showing 320ish-340ish for Biden)?

  3. 3. Do you think the 270Soft Forum needs more moderators and updated, clearer rules to help discourage cut down on toxic behavior? [check all that apply]

    • I think we need more moderators or at least try it out and see how it goes.
    • I think we should have updated rules because we sort of pick and choose which rules we want to follow and which we don't.
    • I only support new moderators if they make their rules exclusively on the forum rules and not based off biases.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of violations--such as personal attacks.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of political posts are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have clear rules and examples of the kind of "off-topic" posts (say about sports or a hobby, etc.) are allowable or not.
    • I think we should have a clear rules and examples of ways we can vent frustration, critic one another, etc. For example, can way say, "The honorable forum user, who I will not name, has routinely been toxic and moronic." because it isn't specifically attacking anyone by name.
    • Other Forum changes I'd like to see (mention below)
    • Admin is the only moderator we need.
    • Even if the currently rules aren't exactly followed to the letter, they're good enough. No need for updates, clarifications, or examples.
  4. 4. In your option, has the forum become more toxic in the last month?

    • Yes, but I think it's just because the election is about to occur; toxicity will go away soon.
    • Yes, and I think it is something more than just the election being close at hand.
    • No, I haven't noticed any more toxicity this month than compared to any other month.
    • No, I fail to really see any toxicity.
      0
    • Other (mention below but refrain from mentioning user names or attacking anyone)
  5. 5. If we had new moderators, which active users do you think would moderate fairly, honorably, respectably, and without bias, without becoming power-hungry, and without bending the rules of moderation, etc?

    • Herbert Hoover
    • Reagan04
    • ConservativeElector 2
    • Actinguy
    • VCCzar
    • TheMiddlePolitical
    • Patine
    • WVProgressive
    • Hestia11
    • SilentLIberty
    • Pilight
      0
    • Edouard
    • PoliticalPundit
      0
    • jnewt
      0
    • TheLiberalKitten
    • The Blood
    • Sunnymentoaddict
    • Zenobiyl
    • Wiw
    • ThePotatoWalrus
    • Cenzonico
    • CentristGuy
      0
    • billay
    • RI Democrat
    • avatarmushi
    • Mark_W
    • Other (mention below)


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For this final week, I'm changing how I'm doing the state of the race. I'm still keep track of the polling stuff, but I'm now using it to create my prediction map, which differs from the forecast map. Here's how they're different.

The forecast map forecasts things based on average polling, adjusting for quality polls and Trump handicap in red states. 

This prediction map uses the above, but it also includes trends, momentum, demographic momentum, economic momentum, approval/disapproval momentum, direction of the country momentum, and many more factors. I should also mention that I give a lot of weight to conservative pollsters like Trafalgar in this map in an attempt to capture "shy voters" or the supposed "Liberal media bias." This map below can be said to be a "Prevent Biden Supporter Overconfidence Map." If there's any flaw, it's that it might be too cautious of a map. 

Here's how to read the map:

  • Dark Blue - Safe. Zero chance of voting Trump if the election is held today. 
  • Medium Blue - Likely. Probably has only like a 1% to 20% chance of voting Trump if the election is held today.
  • Light Blue - Leans. Probably has a 21% to 40% of voting Trump if the election is held today. 
  • Gray Blue - Tilt. Probably has a 41% to 50% chance of voting Trump if election is held today. 
  • Tan Red - Tilt. 41% to 50% could switch to Biden
  • Light Red. Leans. 21% to 40% chance could switch to Biden
  • Medium Red - Likely. 1% to 20% chance could switch to Biden.
  • Dark Red - Safe. Zero chance could switch to Biden.

Here are some notes:

  • The map looks better for Biden today than it did over the weekend. He had c. 279 EVs this weekend. He had 296 EVs on Friday. 
  • The biggest surprises for me are that NV, WI, and MN have large leads for Biden in avg polling, but are all within reasonable grounds for Trump's taking on this map. I am most shocked with MN, which should be out of Trump's orbit, if avg polls are to be believed. Also, Trump has never led Biden in the AVG poll in AZ; yet, he's winning there. 
  • Here are the surprises in Biden's favor. Despite my algorithm favoring Trump, Biden barely leads in NC and IA -- two states I intuitively think will go for Trump. The other two surprises is that PA and MI score higher for Biden under this relatively Trump-friendly algorithm than they do in avg polling, where Biden already has a large lead. Why is this? Both PA and MI have a high % of both Whites with no college education and a high % of blacks compared to most other states, both demographics that are trending towards Biden in the latest information I've read. For PA, Biden also gets a slight boost because Seniors are trending Biden and PA has one of the highest % of seniors in the country (top 10). PA is also one of the few states that the very conservative biased C-grade poll Trafalgar gives to Biden.  

 

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The gang discovers the 6 "other" moderators:

Hey, a fellow Azorian!  I lived there from 2008-2009 as a radio DJ on the island of Terceira.  LOVED it there -- I've been all over this earth, and the Azores wins hands-down.  I'd go back in a heartb

Obama was just there.  That's probably better than the actual candidates.

As a note for the moderation one, I think there are very many people that could do the job well, but I only selected the 5-6 of those that I view as the "upper echelon" of our people here :) Those that are on consistently, provide good content, and are generally kind to others on the site. We have many wonderful people that if I did everyone I viewed well, I'd be selecting nearly the entire list!

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Most of the people I recommended are those who I’ve had 100% positive and respectful interactions with in the forum games that I play or help run — demonstrating their ability to overcome any political disagreements and work well as a group.  
 

That’s the majority of my interactions on this site, and thus the people that I did not choose were generally not intended to be snubs — just that I wasn’t particularly familiar with who they are as they haven’t been a part of those games so far.

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I am open to any changes in rules, but I'd strongly recommend sports and hobby threads to remain. 

For the new moderators, I could select nearly all of the named people, but I thought selecting only the 5-6 people who are the most active is more fruitful.

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I refrained from voting for any moderator who I thought would engage in disharmonious discussion or might target someone based off their personality. As such, I didn't vote for myself. Some people I didn't vote for because they aren't as active as others.

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The gang discovers the 6 "other" moderators:

WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE!? | Who Are You People | Know Your Meme

  • Haha 6
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1 minute ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

8 more days! 8 more days and it'll be all over :)

but seriously I'm super excited for election night/ election month/months. 

I voted a couple of weeks ago actually.

I'm super excited! I'm glad I've found some people to spend it with chatting :D

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As I said before, my opinion is that Admin is the only mod we need as long as we have established and agreed-upon rules that are enforced fairly and firmly. Maybe 3 subjective moderators is better than one subjective moderator, but I would prefer an objective ruleset to both.

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I voted for Wiw for shits and giggles but then I realize how scary that would actually be. The "preacher of doomsday" given moderator powers sounds like a recipe for disaster. H̶e̶y̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶e̶v̶o̶l̶u̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶i̶n̶g̶?̶

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13 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

As I said before, my opinion is that Admin is the only mod we need as long as we have established and agreed-upon rules that are enforced fairly and firmly. Maybe 3 subjective moderators is better than one subjective moderator, but I would prefer an objective ruleset to both.

I’m in that same boat. If Admin decides increasing mods is the way to go I’m all for it, but I think he could likely handle it. I’d think maybe one additional moderator with limited power would be better than a whole panel, however. There’s really not that much toxicity and I still believe it will be much better come December when election tensions are back down. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Biden seems to have no public events scheduled today. 🤷‍♂️

I think that looking at the election based upon rallies and events does not fully show how the enthusiasm people have. Sure it might show that a candidate has loyal supporters but so does the other candidate.

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1 minute ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

I think that looking at the election based upon rallies and events does not fully show how the enthusiasm people have. Sure it might show that a candidate has loyal supporters but so does the other candidate.

Pretty clear there's an enthusiasm gap between the candidates. Rally size, car rallies, boat rallies, counter-rallies, yard signage, 'strongly supports' survey numbers, ...

The argument pro-Biden re enthusiasm is that this election cycle is different from most, because 'enthusiasm-against' is largely motivating one side, which manifests differently than 'enthusiasm-for'.

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is MI is closer than you have it on the map, based on campaign maneuvers on both sides.

Maybe, though it's also possible that Biden's campaign is focusing on shoring up the blue wall rather than expanding the map, i.e. avoiding Hillary's mistake from 2016, while Trump is just trying to avoid betting the farm on Pennsylvania. Trump also went to NH recently - or is going to, I can't remember which - and it doesn't seem like anyone really expects NH to flip.

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1 minute ago, RI Democrat said:

Trump also went to NH recently - or is going to, I can't remember which - and it doesn't seem like anyone really expects NH to flip.

My guess is the campaign has better info than we do, and so it's probably closer than polls suggest. IMHO.

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