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Hestia's Election Updates (Early Vote)


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@Hestia11 Real Clear Politics has Biden at 47.7 and Trump at 46.3, with Biden gaining. Meanwhile Greenfield is at 46.6 while Ernst is at 44.8.

I see a lot more ads in Greenfield's favor than any of the other 3. So looking across the boarder it looks like Greenfield (and the DNC) is spending a lot on that race. Do you think it'll go Trump and Greenfield? Or do you think it'll be a dem win for both races? 

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1 minute ago, SilentLiberty said:

@Hestia11 Real Clear Politics has Biden at 47.7 and Trump at 46.3, with Biden gaining. Meanwhile Greenfield is at 46.6 while Ernst is at 44.8.

I see a lot more ads in Greenfield's favor than any of the other 3. So looking across the boarder it looks like Greenfield (and the DNC) is spending a lot on that race. Do you think it'll go Trump and Greenfield? Or do you think it'll be a dem win for both races? 

I think a Trump win narrowly (maybe less than half a point), as well as a somewhat healthier Greenfield win (1.5 or so points). I could see any combination of things happening there. What do you think NE-2 will be? Biden and Bacon? Or Dem sweep? 

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15 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I think a Trump win narrowly (maybe less than half a point), as well as a somewhat healthier Greenfield win (1.5 or so points). I could see any combination of things happening there. What do you think NE-2 will be? Biden and Bacon? Or Dem sweep? 

The closer we get to the election the more Biden/Harris signs pop up. I think Eastman is gonna pull ahead of Bacon and win that one. I think Biden has a good chance of winning the district closely. A month ago I'd have thought it'd be Trump and Eastman. I feel pretty solid that she will win the seat. Though Bacon and the RNC is spending a lot in negative ads against her.

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8.15 million Texans have now voted. They are now at 92% of the 2016 overall vote total. Texas will likely sprint past the 100% mark within a few days. 

In other news, Trump is down 17 from an ABC/WaPo poll in Wisconsin. A major outlier, but a sign of how difficult winning it back might be. 

71 million have voted so far. 

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Presidential National Average Lead 5 Days To E-Day:

2004: Bush +2.6

2008: Obama +6.5

2012: Obama +0.1

2016: Clinton +2.9

2020: Biden: +9

per Polling USA

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1 minute ago, pilight said:

Trump was in GA a couple of weeks ago.  Came right to my town even.

Id have to check the crowd size then for that rally, was it a big rally by your expectations?

 

the lack of polls and lack of trips to GA are worrisome to me. I "Think" Georgia leans Liberal 

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They were busing people in from who knows where so it's hard to say how many locals attended.  It was smaller than what Bill Clinton drew when he came here in 1996 and much smaller than what Ronald Reagan drew in 1984.

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Collin and Denton counties should be scaring Trump.

72B1AFA1-22DF-46ED-B5BE-B8539CFAB641.png

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2 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump won by 10% 4 years ago.. maybe the margin is like 4-5% this year. 

I think the margin goes from 9% to 1-2%.

I think Biden outperforms Beto which means it’s within 3.

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