Jump to content
270soft Forum

Hestia's Election Updates (Early Vote)


Recommended Posts

Youth vote update 10/25. 18-29 y/o early vote share % increase from 2016, via

: US +27 AZ +19 FL +14 GA +22 IA +0 MI +121 MN +36 NC +15 NV +11 OH +16 PA -42 TX +40 WI +15

 

So far, the youth vote is largely up - look at the percent increase in Michigan. That's insane. They did point out that PA's numbers could be a little wonky because of the lack of early vote before. Some think it could be a typo too, since it's generally pointing out states that increased. I think that's more likely what it is as well.

Michigan, Texas, (if Pennsylvania's is a typo), Minnesota are just really big numbers there. 

  • Upvote 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.

Apparently Georgia releases by age as well, and some people that pay closer attention to the subsections than I do have figured this out. This thread is likely just going to be me posting interesting tidbits that I find lol.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Nice to finally see people in my age group getting involved in politics.

I always thought you were 65+ because of your photo.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we sure most are voting for Biden over Trump? 

This is an interesting story from @Berg2036 in Minnesota in the party vote thread:

"With that being said I also think that no college kids or a large group of them being not on campus will also affect turnout in ways that people are not expecting. In Minnesota where I live and am attending school there are barely a thousand kids on campus versus normally 5500 to 6000 so that being said it will certainly tip the local elections here in my opinion because normally that is a very left voting bloc. In my group of friends Trump has gained 7 votes this year compared to last when they all voted for Hillary. Which 7 is not a lot but it could show a trend that is being missed. Minnesota will go Red and the Republican's will flip the Senate seat. "

Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.0f58ed83ca32e111aff62a36a3a9ebc1.png

Interesting numbers. Net positive for Biden, I believe, but close in all of them. I believe it'll likely bea bout 50/50 by the end so I don't think it'll end up being a huge difference.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.

Apparently Georgia releases by age as well, and some people that pay closer attention to the subsections than I do have figured this out. This thread is likely just going to be me posting interesting tidbits that I find lol.

Black voters 65+ is the sweet spot for Joe.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

I find it hard to believe Biden is doing better than 2008 Obama.

Polling was off in 2008/2012 the other way

Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.ccfaf219c19f0b64ce247b8b2d0d3ce1.png

Two counties in the suburbs of Texas have also surpassed the total number of votes cast in 2016. As the Guardian points out, this is likely worrying for the GOP, adding to their mounting concerns coming out of Texas recently. High suburb turnout is likely not what the Republicans want this time around.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

Youth vote is largely up

What exactly do these numbers represent? Say the number is +20. Is that

1. 20% more (estimated, I presume - how does TargetSmart know this?) 18-29 early votes relative to 2016? (So if was 100K in 2016, is 120K in 2020?)

2. 20% more 18-29 relative to vote share in 2016? (So if was 5% of all early votes in 2016, is 6% in 2020.)

3. Something else?

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Edouard said:

Yes the huge increase of youth turnout is incredible.

Aucune description disponible.

Possibly tied to just a general huge increase in early voting for all demographics and parties, though.  How does this compare to early voting in those states for 65+?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

What exactly do these numbers represent? Say the number is +20. Is that

1. 20% more (estimated, I presume - how does TargetSmart know this?) 18-29 early votes relative to 2016? (So if was 100K in 2016, is 120K in 2020?)

2. 20% more 18-29 relative to vote share in 2016? (So if was 5% of all early votes in 2016, is 6% in 2020.)

3. Something else?

I think #1 but I could be wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hestia11 said:

I think #1 but I could be wrong.

If so, doesn't mean much predictive unless look at those numbers relative to overall voter turnout, no? (Because supposedly early voter turnout will be much higher in 2020 across the board.)

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, admin_270 said:

If so, doesn't mean much predictive unless look at those numbers relative to overall voter turnout, no? (Because supposedly early voter turnout will be much higher in 2020 across the board.)

Yes. Still big but yes, depends on overall turnout in general.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

I find it hard to believe Biden is doing better than 2008 Obama.

The country is a lot more polarized now than in 2008, so Biden could very plausibly win by a larger popular vote margin than Obama but still get less electoral college votes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Update on Texas: up to 7.8 million Texans have already voted (88% of the total turnout from 2016). Democrats estimate at about 10 million or so votes, they have a fighting chance at flipping the state. Looks like it'll hit that on Election Day more than likely. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.7159a17f125222c9c2412109ec3cf546.png

*Continuing my fascination with Texas

I'd have reason to bet O'Rourke is the candidate, but I could also be wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

image.png.7159a17f125222c9c2412109ec3cf546.png

*Continuing my fascination with Texas

I'd have reason to bet O'Rourke is the candidate, but I could also be wrong.

Because of you I want to bet 50 dollars on Biden winning Texas for the bold prediction

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Edouard said:

Because of you I want to bet 50 dollars on Biden winning Texas for the bold prediction

Aww :D

If admin does one of his "place your bets on the EC margin" on the blog, I'm going to go Texas blue to try and shake it up a little bit. ;)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...