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VCCzar's Preliminary Prediction Map


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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

And Trafalgar just released a poll having Trump up by 2%.

 

Remember this poll: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/12/presidential-poll-michigan/91964392/

12 pt lead by Clinton to Trump allegedly.

 

I'm not worried about Michigan... what I AM worried about is Texas  

Lol this kind of thinking that "they've got this in the bag" is why Clinton lost. And now you and the GOP are going to mirror that failed strategy ;)

 

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Might as well present you with your award.

Map is below, which is much more critical of Biden's chances than most pundit forecasts. The colors are in Safe, Likely, Leans, and Tilt. If Trump wins all the tilts, then it is a 269-269 tie, which i

This is an update to the preliminary prediction map. I took out something that was attempting to factor the undecided vote margin of 2016 to 2020. I found that it was impossible to really estimate who

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Lol this kind of thinking that "they've got this in the bag" is why Clinton lost. And now you and the GOP are going to mirror that failed strategy ;)

 

That would signal we're not getting out the vote and have all the base and momentum with us. 

 

I'm simply saying if that map by that poster is correct, all he needs is Michigan which he will win. 

 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

That would signal we're not getting out the vote and have all the base and momentum with us. 

 

I'm simply saying if that map by that poster is correct, all he needs is Michigan which he will win. 

 

No you said he will absolutely win Michigan which is a very different thing. 

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

No you said he will absolutely win Michigan which is a very different thing. 

I said both:

"But Trump is ABSOLUTELY winning Michigan, which means if your map holds up it is checkmate." 

 

And yes he is winning Michigan but it only matters IF that map holds up. 

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I said both:

"But Trump is ABSOLUTELY winning Michigan, which means if your map holds up it is checkmate." 

 

And yes he is winning Michigan but it only matters IF that map holds up. 

No he isnt, that's your guess. If I said Biden is absolutely winning South Dakota after a poll just showed him 11 down, I'd assume someone would call me on that as well

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

No he isnt, that's your guess. If I said Biden is absolutely winning South Dakota after a poll just showed him 11 down, I'd assume someone would call me on that as well

If you said that I'd just say I disagree/don't know and move on. 

The fact that you don't realize this EXACT SCENARIO happened 4 years ago WITH THE SAME CANDIDATE in the EXACT STATE at this EXACT TIME is questionable. It is my belief Trump will absolutely win Michigan. It's not just a shot out of nowhere it's based on crowds, and past history in this state. 

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2 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

If you said that I'd just say I disagree/don't know and move on. 

The fact that you don't realize this EXACT SCENARIO happened 4 years ago WITH THE SAME CANDIDATE in the EXACT STATE at this EXACT TIME is questionable. It is my belief Trump will absolutely win Michigan. It's not just a shot out of nowhere it's based on crowds, and past history in this state. 

I'm saying I disagree. You said its absolute and I disagree with that strongly. Its literally not the same candidate :P as much as you would like to see Hillary Clinton on that ballot she isn't. That's hilarious.

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Just want to point out that if Clinton was up 6 points nationally by mid october as of today 4 years ago she was down to a lead of 2.8 points nationnaly.

Biden is at an average of 8 points lead nationally.

As for the swing states it's pretty similar than 2016 (Biden 4 pts lead versus Clinton 3,5pts) but the model improved since 2016 there is an excellent video about it from FiveThirtyEight

 

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6 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm saying I disagree. You said its absolute and I disagree with that strongly. Its literally not the same candidate :P as much as you would like to see Hillary Clinton on that ballot she isn't. That's hilarious.

And I'm saying the reason polls are skewed is bc of the SHY TRUMP VOTER. They could be running Obama and I'd say the same thing regarding polls. We'l see election night. I look forward to your acceptance and apology :)

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

And I'm saying the reason polls are skewed is bc of the SHY TRUMP VOTER. They could be running Obama and I'd say the same thing regarding polls. We'l see election night. I look forward to your acceptance and apology :)

I wont be apologizing for anything because theres no reason for me to apologize. You're the one typing in all caps.

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

I should be apologizing for posting in all caps?? Lmaoooo 

🤣

I didn't say that. I was just pointing out that you seem to be more riled up and affected than I am.

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

"I wont be apologizing for anything... You're the one typing in all caps."

Lmao ok then. 

 

I still look forward to your acceptance come election night :) 

Same with you :D

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@Hestia11 just block him. He's not worth listening to. He's a troll. He turns everything into a bad faith argument after making declarations based of no evidence or seriously biased evidence. He shows no evidence of being consistently reasonable, harmonizing, or in anyway beneficial to anyone's time. The forum is a much worse place because of him. The toxicity level has increased. The level of unsupported or poorly supported information has increased. It's turning the forum into something more of a comment section on a media news source or into a Twitter feed. I think engaging him just encourages his endless trolling and substandard commentary. 

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10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Hestia11 just block him. He's not worth listening to. He's a troll. He turns everything into a bad faith argument after making declarations based of no evidence or seriously biased evidence. He shows no evidence of being consistently reasonable, harmonizing, or in anyway beneficial to anyone's time. The forum is a much worse place because of him. The toxicity level has increased. The level of unsupported or poorly supported information has increased. It's turning the forum into something more of a comment section on a media news source or into a Twitter feed. I think engaging him just encourages his endless trolling and substandard commentary. 

When I called you out for your behavior you blocked me, not bc of any "debate or argument" sooooo 

 

 

I love that me and @Hestia11 can argue and bicker in good fun whereas this poster ^ just continues to attack me unprovoked where if I say one thing I'm sure I'd get banned. The obsession is real. 

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Hestia11 just block him. He's not worth listening to. He's a troll. He turns everything into a bad faith argument after making declarations based of no evidence or seriously biased evidence. He shows no evidence of being consistently reasonable, harmonizing, or in anyway beneficial to anyone's time. The forum is a much worse place because of him. The toxicity level has increased. The level of unsupported or poorly supported information has increased. It's turning the forum into something more of a comment section on a media news source or into a Twitter feed. I think engaging him just encourages his endless trolling and substandard commentary. 

So @admin_270 this poster is just allowed to CONTINUE to make posts attacking me, calling me a troll, saying I have no intelligence (in the last post you warned them about for a personal attack) etc? This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Notice how a poster like @Hestia11 will argue with me and vice versa and we NEVER resort to calling for bans, saying what an awful poster I am, how I bring nothing to this forum, threatening to block me repeatedly... I mean I could say things back but I'm sure I'd be getting banned in that case. 

 

How they didn't get banned for their last rant attacking me personally is beyond me. We both know that. 

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11 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

So @admin_270 this poster is just allowed to CONTINUE to make posts attacking me, calling me a troll, saying I have no intelligence (in the last post you warned them about for a personal attack) etc? This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Notice how a poster like @Hestia11 will argue with me and vice versa and we NEVER resort to calling for bans, saying what an awful poster I am, how I bring nothing to this forum, threatening to block me repeatedly... I mean I could say things back but I'm sure I'd be getting banned in that case. 

 

How they didn't get banned for their last rant attacking me personally is beyond me. We both know that. 

Don't you dare pin that on them! Don't you DARE!!

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

So @admin_270 this poster is just allowed to CONTINUE to make posts attacking me, calling me a troll, saying I have no intelligence (in the last post you warned them about for a personal attack) etc? This is getting ridiculous. 

I feel like you would prefer it if everyone on the forum was banned except for you. I say this because with almost every poster you encounter, you fall into this cycle of throwing away evidence going against your point, acting superior or more intelligent than the person you are arguing with, laughing off or refusing to encounter other people's points, generally being a poor influence on this forum, and crying wolf whenever the slightest offense is made against you, using Admin as a tool to ban people for very minor offenses, if they are offenses at all(Of course, some of what Patine has done did justify a short ban, but beyond the initial bans, things got out of hand). This cycle leads to one conclusion: You cannot be debated or argued with, and would much rather talk to yourself than anyone else, because you obviously hold contempt for everyone and everything which opposes your points.

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5 minutes ago, The Blood said:

I feel like you would prefer it if everyone on the forum was banned except for you. I say this because with almost every poster you encounter, you fall into this cycle of throwing away evidence going against your point, acting superior or more intelligent than the person you are arguing with, laughing off or refusing to encounter other people's points, generally being a poor influence on this forum, and crying wolf whenever the slightest offense is made against you, using Admin as a tool to ban people for very minor offenses, if they are offenses at all(Of course, some of what Patine has done did justify a short ban, but beyond the initial bans, things got out of hand). This cycle leads to one conclusion: You cannot be debated or argued with, and would much rather talk to yourself than anyone else, because you obviously hold contempt for everyone and everything which opposes your points.

2 posters? Is not EVERY poster.

 

I just pointed to examples of posters who can talk and debate ad nauseam with me and we never get into personal attacks. I'll do more  @Hestia11 @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Conservative Elector 2 @billay @ThePotatoWalrus @Zenobiyl @pilight @TheMiddlePolitical @Sean F. Kennedy @Edouard

 

This is a poster who is constantly inserting themselves into conversations NOT CONCERNING THEM and yet I say nothing personal back. If I said anything back resembling truth regarding their behavior I'd get banned, and they continue to get nothing. 

 

Since that poster is clearly a god to this board or whatever, if it can simply be said for the 10th time to NOT INSERT THEMSELVES into discussions not involving them this wouldn't be an issue. But this is ridiculous.

 

 

Or the rules can change and personal attacks are allowed both ways and I'm fine with that too. 

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30 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Hestia11 just block him. He's not worth listening to. He's a troll. He turns everything into a bad faith argument after making declarations based of no evidence or seriously biased evidence. He shows no evidence of being consistently reasonable, harmonizing, or in anyway beneficial to anyone's time. The forum is a much worse place because of him. The toxicity level has increased. The level of unsupported or poorly supported information has increased. It's turning the forum into something more of a comment section on a media news source or into a Twitter feed. I think engaging him just encourages his endless trolling and substandard commentary. 

If you want to communicate this sentiment to other users, you can do so without making these sorts of public attacks. Please refrain from attacking other users.

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No Pundit, there is only one person who continually trashes other posters day after day: YOU. You have one shallow opinion - HEIL DOLARD and no other. The admin continues to let you post because maybe it makes a controversial forum. It doesn't. You are dangerous!

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