Jump to content
270soft Forum

VCCzar's Preliminary Prediction Map


Recommended Posts

Map is below, which is much more critical of Biden's chances than most pundit forecasts. The colors are in Safe, Likely, Leans, and Tilt. If Trump wins all the tilts, then it is a 269-269 tie, which is frightening. 

I created an algorithm that adjust the avg state polls, attempting to factor in tends in demographic support, trends in polling, trends in economics, approval, favorability, and many more. Basically, the numbers don't matter as much as which way these things are trending overall. 

One factor that is really helping Trump is that Hispanic support is trending better for Trump in 2020 than it was in 2016. This likely saves him in TX and its brought AZ down to tilt. It's also helped him save FL, despite Seniors trending away from Trump when comparing 2016 and expectations for 2020. The biggest factor helping Biden right now is that whites with no college education are trending away from Trump when comparing 2016 to 2020. This is helping Biden in heavily White states like NH, IA, WI, and MN. 

There are two major factors that could change this map by election day -- trends change by election day, and I need Trafalgar and other Conservative pollsters to post more results. They're being quiet, which might suggest the results look bad for Trump. 

Here is one thing I do feel confident about: I only the tilt and lean states on this map could flip, if any flip. This means I feel 99% confident that Biden will get at least 258 EVs and Trump will get at least 125 EVs. This means Trump's best case scenario is probably 280 EVs. As a Biden supporter, and someone with 2016 PTSD, I do think it is very possible that Trump wins the tilts, and we get a 269 tie. 

The biggest surprised for me are that my algorithm knocks down Biden's huge lead in WI and his smaller, but comfortable leads in AZ and NC. Meanwhile, Trump's lead is more comfortable in TX than I would have imagined. The two more pleasurable surprises are that PA and MI do seem to be likely out of Trump's orbit, and the fact that IA is a tilt for Biden is a surprise. 

I should note that my algorithm isn't as exacting as something Nate Silver would make. It uses some cautious guess-work and cautious gut-instinct. I lean towards Trump when conflicted. For instance, NC on this map really should be an absolute tie. 

Lastly, I'll start using my Prediction Map, rather than the polling forecast map, in all my future State of the Race updates, starting on Monday.

gpE1V.png

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 103
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Might as well present you with your award.

Map is below, which is much more critical of Biden's chances than most pundit forecasts. The colors are in Safe, Likely, Leans, and Tilt. If Trump wins all the tilts, then it is a 269-269 tie, which i

This is an update to the preliminary prediction map. I took out something that was attempting to factor the undecided vote margin of 2016 to 2020. I found that it was impossible to really estimate who

Posted Images

Toss up states I think Trump can/Will take: AZ,IA,OH,GA,NC,FL,WI,TX,PA

Ones he won't: MN,MI,NV

So yeah...It is still up in the air. @vcczar

Link to post
Share on other sites

I still currently predict a Biden 7 point popular vote win, and Biden garnering about 280-290 ev's 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

 

There are two major factors that could change this map by election day -- trends change by election day, and I need Trafalgar and other Conservative pollsters to post more results. They're being quiet, which might suggest the results look bad for Trump. 

The two more pleasurable surprises are that PA and MI do seem to be likely out of Trump's orbit, and the fact that IA is a tilt for Biden is a surprise. 

There's absolutely 0 objectivity for this assumption other than your bias.

 

Iowa may go to Biden, that was my most likely shocker other than Texas before the polls yesterday.

 

Michigan is likely to go to Biden (as of now) so that's somewhat fair, 

but PA is very close, what polls are you seeing otherwise? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Map is below, which is much more critical of Biden's chances than most pundit forecasts. The colors are in Safe, Likely, Leans, and Tilt. If Trump wins all the tilts, then it is a 269-269 tie, which is frightening. 

I created an algorithm that adjust the avg state polls, attempting to factor in tends in demographic support, trends in polling, trends in economics, approval, favorability, and many more. Basically, the numbers don't matter as much as which way these things are trending overall. 

One factor that is really helping Trump is that Hispanic support is trending better for Trump in 2020 than it was in 2016. This likely saves him in TX and its brought AZ down to tilt. It's also helped him save FL, despite Seniors trending away from Trump when comparing 2016 and expectations for 2020. The biggest factor helping Biden right now is that whites with no college education are trending away from Trump when comparing 2016 to 2020. This is helping Biden in heavily White states like NH, IA, WI, and MN. 

There are two major factors that could change this map by election day -- trends change by election day, and I need Trafalgar and other Conservative pollsters to post more results. They're being quiet, which might suggest the results look bad for Trump. 

Here is one thing I do feel confident about: I only the tilt and lean states on this map could flip, if any flip. This means I feel 99% confident that Biden will get at least 258 EVs and Trump will get at least 125 EVs. This means Trump's best case scenario is probably 280 EVs. As a Biden supporter, and someone with 2016 PTSD, I do think it is very possible that Trump wins the tilts, and we get a 269 tie. 

The biggest surprised for me are that my algorithm knocks down Biden's huge lead in WI and his smaller, but comfortable leads in AZ and NC. Meanwhile, Trump's lead is more comfortable in TX than I would have imagined. The two more pleasurable surprises are that PA and MI do seem to be likely out of Trump's orbit, and the fact that IA is a tilt for Biden is a surprise. 

I should note that my algorithm isn't as exacting as something Nate Silver would make. It uses some cautious guess-work and cautious gut-instinct. I lean towards Trump when conflicted. For instance, NC on this map really should be an absolute tie. 

Lastly, I'll start using my Prediction Map, rather than the polling forecast map, in all my future State of the Race updates, starting on Monday.

gpE1V.png

This is basically my map except I have Iowa tilted red and NC and FL tilted blue. Seems like a really conservative, cautious map for Biden supporters though.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I just don’t predict an election night where me and my friends are celebrating a domination of Trump, of the polls being right. I see a nervous night not going to sleep till 3am. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I just don’t predict an election night where me and my friends are celebrating a domination of Trump, of the polls being right. I see a nervous night not going to sleep till 3am. 

this election isn't being decided on the night of. no way. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

this election isn't being decided on the night of. no way. 

It matters, If Biden wins TX,GA,NC, and the others for example he doesn't need PA. Only certain states are kinda relying on post election day ballot counting PA is one of those. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

It matters, If Biden wins TX,GA,NC, and the others for example he doesn't need PA. Only certain states are kinda relying on post election day ballot counting PA is one of those. 

Agreed on Texas, but given the recent polls Trump is winning Texas (early votes highest count is all in Trump county, lowest early votes are all Biden areas). 

 

But once again, aren't we getting mainly election votes not mail in ballots on Election Day? Trump won't be down in GA or NC off that. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that your numbers are quite good the problem is, many states and even the Maine congressionnal district that you point out may switch.

Basically there are way too many states which are in the margin of error, so that Joe Biden could actually win NC and lose Florida or win Georgia and lose Ohio.

That's why the 2020 map is a mess while the 2012 election was boring and mostly stable and predictacle, only Florida was often predicted to Romney and ended to Obama.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Unless it is a significant win either way, I think this is right.

Yeah, I think it's like 50% that we won't know by 7am the next day. I think it requires that we know PA and FL. If Biden wins both or is leading by such a margin that Trump can't come back, then the election is over. If Trump wins one of these, then we probably won't know the winner by 7am. If Trump wins PA, I'm going to say Biden lost, even if all the other states are still at 42% counted. PA is the crucial state this year. Trump definitely wins if he wins it, while Biden will likely win if he wins it. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I personally believe that Pennsylvania will be the 2020 remake of Florida in 2000.  I expect many lawsuits to be filed regarding the vote counts there.  PA will be the most crucial state to win for either the Trump or Biden campaign.  Both can theoretically win without it, but life will be a lot easier for whoever takes it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

this election isn't being decided on the night of. no way. 

This is what worries me, personally.  All it takes is one nutcase to light a spark on an issue that is going to be very contentious.  Neither Bush or Gore were as polarizing a candidate as Donald Trump.  There needs to be a deliberate, transparent process of counting votes if this election drags on past November 3rd.

Edit : I meant Gore, not Kerry.

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Unless it is a significant win either way, I think this is right.

if trump is way ahead on election night, Biden's staff will refuse to let him concede till at least December.

 

I think Biden the man would concede the night of

 

but the group around him would rather burn down America than agree Trump wins a fair election 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CPE said:

This is what worries me, personally.  All it takes is one nutcase to light a spark on an issue that is going to be very contentious.  Neither Bush or Kerry were as polarizing a candidate as Donald Trump.  There needs to be a deliberate, transparent process of counting votes if this election drags on past November 3rd.

Absolutely impossible

 

the best hope is Trump just dominates the night of and it's so obvious (like 2016) it just ends rather quickly (I think by December is likely).

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

xmj0L.png

This is an update to the preliminary prediction map. I took out something that was attempting to factor the undecided vote margin of 2016 to 2020. I found that it was impossible to really estimate who that favors. There also hasn't been many Generic Party polls lately, so I took out the Generic Party trend. Doing this tilted the tilt states, but at some point it might be added back in, but who knows where the trend will be. For now, Biden still leads, but if this map is in anyway accurate, it's worrisome that it has been moving towards Trump. Most forecasts still have Biden at 320ish to 340ish EVs. I wish mine was there. 

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

xmj0L.png

This is an update to the preliminary prediction map. I took out something that was attempting to factor the undecided vote margin of 2016 to 2020. I found that it was impossible to really estimate who that favors. There also hasn't been many Generic Party polls lately, so I took out the Generic Party trend. Doing this tilted the tilt states, but at some point it might be added back in, but who knows where the trend will be. For now, Biden still leads, but if this map is in anyway accurate, it's worrisome that it has been moving towards Trump. Most forecasts still have Biden at 320ish to 340ish EVs. I wish mine was there. 

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Surprised how Red that map is

 

But Trump is ABSOLUTELY winning Michigan, which means if your map holds up it is checkmate. Game over. Most likely PA as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Surprised how Red that map is

 

But Trump is ABSOLUTELY winning Michigan, which means if your map holds up it is checkmate. Game over. Most likely PA as well. 

Bro Gravis just released a Michigan poll which had Biden up 12-13 points. If you think its absolute, Im afraid you're going to be very very surprised on election night.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Bro Gravis just released a Michigan poll which had Biden up 12-13 points. If you think its absolute, Im afraid you're going to be very very surprised on election night.

And Trafalgar just released a poll having Trump up by 2%.

 

Remember this poll: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/12/presidential-poll-michigan/91964392/

12 pt lead by Clinton to Trump allegedly.

 

I'm not worried about Michigan... what I AM worried about is Texas  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Bro Gravis just released a Michigan poll which had Biden up 12-13 points. If you think its absolute, Im afraid you're going to be very very surprised on election night.

Yeah, Gravis has MI at +13 for Biden, but Trafalgar has it +2 for Trump. Both came out today. Both are C-rated polls though. Polling averages, however, clearly are showing Biden with a huge lead. If one ignores polls -- especially those with A and B grades -- then one can make a claim Trump wins MI without any evidence. However, the top polls are one of the only kinds of evidence we can have about elections, which is why we have polls. The evidence is stronger the greater the polling average is. If polling average for Biden were only like +3 or less, then one can say -- Trump is going to win, since the polls were off by about +3. But Biden is winning between +6 and +8. I'm not sure how one can claim MI will go for Trump in this instance without sounding like a moron or a Pro-Trump troll. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...