Jump to content
270soft Forum

10 Days Left - 2 Systems - Main system and radical system


Entrecampos
 Share

Recommended Posts

image.png.65a031fc31346198198f3c5012ad4492.png

The old main system first, its very good, but its very orthodox, I discovered some troubles because only answers well to RCP polls, in other polls from FiveThirtyEight and other nations, the results very bad, and dont see easily outliers of the polls if they arent rated, only focus in rating polls and giving good final percentages, if we consider pollsters as generic, results are much worse than this alternative model. 

Those are some of the results for 2016 of the new alternative model that I created that focus in seeing trends, and not in real results percentage. I believe that will improve much, because its considering pollsters as generic, I expect a fabolous performance, when I add the ranks to it. I will keep both systems and update both day by day. This one is very aggressive and depends only of the last 18 polls from each state. Did a good job seeing trends in states like DC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida (A clear exxageration, I know), Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, etc...In states like Idaho or Kansas the results arent as good, but it guess well the winner (easy job) so I dont worry about it.
For 2020 with this system, I think we will have many surprises... But I didnt finished the results state by state, so, I will finish every of the 51, before publishing here.

image.png.2ae035bfa2274864847169d5c9b66ec1.png



 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets start with Alabama.

Trump 58.8% (+19.9)
Biden 38.9%

Alaska

Trump 52.9% (+11.4)
Biden 41.5%

Arizona 

Biden 49.5% (+5.4)
Trump 44.1%

Arkansas

Trump 59.9% (+26.1)
Biden 33.8%

California

Biden 61.3%
Trump 36.9%

Colorado

Biden 58.6%
Trump 39.7%

Connecticut
Biden 59.7%
Trump 37.8%

Delaware 
Biden 60.7%
Trump 36.7%

DC 
Biden 85.9%
Trump 11.3%

Florida
Biden 49.4%
Trump 45.8%

Georgia 
Biden 50.5%
Trump 46.7%

I will update this post state by state.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...