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10 Days Left - 2 Systems - Main system and radical system


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The old main system first, its very good, but its very orthodox, I discovered some troubles because only answers well to RCP polls, in other polls from FiveThirtyEight and other nations, the results very bad, and dont see easily outliers of the polls if they arent rated, only focus in rating polls and giving good final percentages, if we consider pollsters as generic, results are much worse than this alternative model. 

Those are some of the results for 2016 of the new alternative model that I created that focus in seeing trends, and not in real results percentage. I believe that will improve much, because its considering pollsters as generic, I expect a fabolous performance, when I add the ranks to it. I will keep both systems and update both day by day. This one is very aggressive and depends only of the last 18 polls from each state. Did a good job seeing trends in states like DC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida (A clear exxageration, I know), Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, etc...In states like Idaho or Kansas the results arent as good, but it guess well the winner (easy job) so I dont worry about it.
For 2020 with this system, I think we will have many surprises... But I didnt finished the results state by state, so, I will finish every of the 51, before publishing here.



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Lets start with Alabama.

Trump 58.8% (+19.9)
Biden 38.9%


Trump 52.9% (+11.4)
Biden 41.5%


Biden 49.5% (+5.4)
Trump 44.1%


Trump 59.9% (+26.1)
Biden 33.8%


Biden 61.3%
Trump 36.9%


Biden 58.6%
Trump 39.7%

Biden 59.7%
Trump 37.8%

Biden 60.7%
Trump 36.7%

Biden 85.9%
Trump 11.3%

Biden 49.4%
Trump 45.8%

Biden 50.5%
Trump 46.7%

I will update this post state by state.

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